How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the true fair market value for every race. By stripping out the hidden bookmaker margin, we reveal where the odds are genuinely in your favour. This gives our subscribers an almost unfair advantage, turning everyday prices into powerful, data-driven bets.
Race 1: Star Sports Brighton Owners Series Classified Stakes
Race Distance: 5f 215y
Racecourse: Brighton
Time of Race: 6:12
Runners: 9
First: #8 Supernova Steps
Age: 4
Weight: 9-9
Form: 4-9494
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Trainer: David Loughnane
Trainer RTF%: 72
RTFs: 49
OR: 50
TS: 49
SecEff (0–1): 0.89 (est.)
Probability: 27% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 25%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #9 Voodoo Ray
Age: 6
Weight: 9-9
Form: 4500-9
Jockey: Tom Queally
Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore
Trainer RTF%: 64
RTFs: 63
OR: 49
TS: 63
SecEff (0–1): 0.88 (est.)
Probability: 20% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 21%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #1 Toussarok
Form: 848-01
Jockey: Jack Doughty
Trainer: Tony Carroll
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 17%
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
Supernova Steps drops in class and has been running consistently in stronger company. Her sectionals suggest she can sustain a strong pace on good to firm ground, and the draw in stall 3 is advantageous for a prominent run. Voodoo Ray is a course specialist and should be finishing strongly, while Toussarok, despite top weight, has recent winning form and a trainer in good nick. The pace map suggests a contested lead, but Supernova Steps’ finishing efficiency gives her the edge. The market is tightly clustered at the head, but Supernova Steps’ normalized probability and sectional data make her the standout.
Scenario Analysis:
If the ground quickens further, Supernova Steps’ pace profile is even more advantageous. Should early leaders overdo it, Voodoo Ray could pick them off late. If the pace collapses, Toussarok’s class may come into play, but the field lacks deep closers.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 118% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 18%
This is considered high, suggesting a favourite-driven market with little value in outsiders12.
Race 2: Star Sports We Believe In Bookmaking EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes
Race Distance: 6f 210y
Racecourse: Brighton
Time of Race: 6:42
Runners: 5
First: #4 Court Of Stars
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
Form: 4
Jockey: Jason Watson
Trainer: Ollie Sangster
Trainer RTF%: 71
RTFs: 30
OR: –
TS: 30
SecEff (0–1): 0.88 (est.)
Probability: 29% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 27%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #5 Aeih
Age: 2
Weight: 9-0
Form: 2
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Trainer: David Loughnane
Trainer RTF%: 72
RTFs: 68
OR: –
TS: 68
SecEff (0–1): 0.88 (est.)
Probability: 26% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 31%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #2 Snake Charmer
Form: 07
Jockey: Hollie Doyle
Trainer: Archie Watson
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 22%
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Court Of Stars shaped well on debut and is bred to improve for this trip. The stable is in form, and the filly’s sectionals suggest she can finish strongly. Aeih is respected but odds-on quotes and a slightly lower normalized probability make her poor value. Snake Charmer should improve but lacks the finishing data of the top two. The field is small, so tactical speed will be crucial.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace is muddling, Court Of Stars’ tactical speed will be decisive. Should Aeih improve markedly for experience, she could reverse placings, but value is lacking at current odds. A strong early gallop would suit Court Of Stars best.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 120% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 20%
This is excessive, reflecting a short-priced favourite and little depth in the market34.
Race 3: Streamline Always First Past The Post! Handicap
Race Distance: 6f 210y
Racecourse: Brighton
Time of Race: 7:12
Runners: 8
First: #4 Royal Accord
Age: 3
Weight: 9-6
Form: 121321
Jockey: Marco Ghiani
Trainer: Stuart Williams
Trainer RTF%: 47
RTFs: 62
OR: 65
TS: 62
SecEff (0–1): 0.89 (est.)
Probability: 26% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 23%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #1 Time Patrol
Age: 5
Weight: 10-0
Form: 681114
Jockey: Jack Doughty
Trainer: Tony Carroll
Trainer RTF%: 67
RTFs: 53
OR: 65
TS: 53
SecEff (0–1): 0.88 (est.)
Probability: 22% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #7 Kranjcar
Form: 121625
Jockey: Pat Cosgrave
Trainer: George Boughey
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 16%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Royal Accord brings strong recent form, is well drawn, and has the sectionals to suggest further improvement. Time Patrol drops in grade and is a Brighton specialist, but may be vulnerable to a progressive 3yo. Kranjcar is a C&D winner and could go well if the headgear sparks improvement. The pace is likely to be strong, which plays to Royal Accord’s strengths.
Scenario Analysis:
If the early pace is fierce, closers like Kranjcar may benefit. A slow pace would see Time Patrol dictate, but Royal Accord’s versatility is a key asset. Any significant draw bias or rain would require reassessment.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 117% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 17%
This is high, but typical for competitive handicaps with several in-form runners51.
Race 4: Star Sports Handicap
Race Distance: 1m 1f 207y
Racecourse: Brighton
Time of Race: 7:42
Runners: 5
First: #4 Twilight Guest
Age: 5
Weight: 9-5
Form: 023111
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Trainer: George Margarson
Trainer RTF%: 40
RTFs: 65
OR: 60
TS: 65
SecEff (0–1): 0.89 (est.)
Probability: 32% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 29%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #1 Shady Bay
Age: 4
Weight: 9-12
Form: 842551
Jockey: Hollie Doyle
Trainer: Tom Ward
Trainer RTF%: 69
RTFs: 78
OR: 67
TS: 78
SecEff (0–1): 0.88 (est.)
Probability: 28% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 33%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #3 Voix De Bocelli
Form: -21314
Jockey: Jason Watson
Trainer: Henrietta C Knight
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 21%
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Twilight Guest is thriving, seeking a fourth win from five starts and is proven over C&D. Shady Bay is penalized but in top form; the short turnaround is a concern. Voix De Bocelli is consistent but may lack the finishing kick of the top two. The small field could make this tactical, but Twilight Guest’s adaptability and strong sectionals make him the one to beat.
Scenario Analysis:
If Shady Bay overcomes the penalty and leads, he could be hard to pass. Voix De Bocelli would benefit from a collapse up front. A change in pace scenario would most likely favour Twilight Guest, who can adapt to different race shapes.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 116% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 16%
This is average, with the market focused on the top two67.
Race 5: Starsports.Bet Classified Stakes
Race Distance: 7f 216y
Racecourse: Brighton
Time of Race: 8:12
Runners: 8
First: #3 Semser
Age: 8
Weight: 9-9
Form: 5526-5
Jockey: Tom Queally
Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore
Trainer RTF%: 64
RTFs: 30
OR: 50
TS: 30
SecEff (0–1): 0.88 (est.)
Probability: 25% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 23%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #7 Lambournghini
Age: 3
Weight: 9-0
Form: 870241
Jockey: Joe Leavy
Trainer: David Evans
Trainer RTF%: 53
RTFs: 53
OR: 50
TS: 53
SecEff (0–1): 0.88 (est.)
Probability: 20% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 19%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #6 Aim For The Bull
Form: 7-4244
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Trainer: Mike Murphy
Probability: 16% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 15%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Semser drops into 0-50 company and gets first-time headgear. Lambournghini is progressive and suited by the trip. Aim For The Bull has been knocking on the door and could benefit from a strong pace. The field is open, but Semser’s class edge and value rating make him the selection.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace is slow, Lambournghini’s tactical speed could be decisive. Should the ground ride quicker than advertised, Semser’s stamina may be a bigger asset. A late market move for Aim For The Bull would be significant.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 117% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 17%
This is high, reflecting uncertainty and a lack of standout form8.
Race 6: Download The Star Sports App Handicap (Brighton Sprint Series Qualifier)
Race Distance: 6f 210y
Racecourse: Brighton
Time of Race: 8:42
Runners: 4
First: #2 Pietro
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 22-442
Jockey: Kyle Strydom
Trainer: James Fanshawe
Trainer RTF%: 48
RTFs: 65
OR: 72
TS: 65
SecEff (0–1): 0.89 (est.)
Probability: 37% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 38%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #1 Tea Sea
Age: 5
Weight: 9-13
Form: 114352
Jockey: William Carson
Trainer: Tony Carroll
Trainer RTF%: 67
RTFs: 51
OR: 68
TS: 51
SecEff (0–1): 0.88 (est.)
Probability: 31% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 29%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #6 Graduated
Form: 5-4934
Jockey: Elizabeth Gale
Trainer: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 18%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Pietro is consistent and has the top rating in a small field. Tea Sea is reliable but may lack the finishing kick of the favourite. Graduated is interesting with a 7lb claimer and could outrun odds if the race turns tactical. With only four runners, the race could become tactical, but Pietro’s class and sectionals make him the clear choice.
Scenario Analysis:
If Tea Sea gets a soft lead, he could be hard to peg back. Graduated would benefit from a collapse up front. Any late market support for Lexington Jet would be notable.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 116% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 16%
This is average for a small field with a clear favourite.
Nap of the Meeting – Brighton
Race Time: 7:42
Horse Name: #4 Twilight Guest
Confidence Factors: Dominant recent form, proven over course and distance, clear pace advantage
Race Conditions: Good to Firm ground and small field ideal for tactical speed
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
Probability Normalized and Implied Probability – Explanation
Implied Probability is calculated by converting the horse’s odds into a percentage chance of winning, without adjusting for the bookmaker’s margin. Normalized Probability (Fair Probability) is then derived by dividing each horse’s Implied Probability by the sum of all implied probabilities in the race, ensuring the total equals 100%. This strips out the bookmaker’s overround and reveals the true market value for each runner.
Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability