Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye. To stay ahead and get alerts as soon as new predictions drop, Click the first Icon below and join our Telegram Group.
Race Name: Racing Welfare Reminiscence Day Apprentice Handicap
Race Distance: 7f 6y
Racecourse: Catterick
Time of Race: 13 : 47
First: Sunny Orange
Age: 5
Weight: 9-8
Form: 436346- (consistent, placed four of last six)
Going: Good-to-Firm
Jockey: Jake Dickson (10)
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Trainer RTF%: 58
RTF’s: 85
OR: 59
TS: 66
Probability: High
Second: Miss Willows
Age: 6
Weight: 9-8
Form: 10406-1 (decisive C&D win last month)
Going: Good-to-Firm
Jockey: Andrea Pinna (5)
Trainer: Simon Whitaker
Trainer RTF%: 52
RTF’s: 80
OR: 59
TS: 70
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Sunny Orange has been freshened since August and returns on a 2 lb lower mark than when finishing a close fourth here last summer. His record at Catterick (one win, two placed from four) and his ability to travel strongly on quick ground stand out in a field lacking solid pace influences. East-erby’s yard is running at a 32 % strike-rate this month, with 58 % of starters running to form, and the booking of 10 lb claimer Jake Dickson ensures he carries just 8-12 — 3 lb below his last winning racing-weight. Sectional data from his Beverley fourth (June ’24) shows a final-two-furlong split 0.25 sec faster than par for Class 6, suggesting hidden stamina for this stiff 7f. Miss Willows is the obvious danger after a clear-cut C&D victory in a stronger time figure (75 on Topspeed) but is up 10 lb and drawn wider. Kalganov makes each-way appeal but lacks tactical early speed.
Scenario Analysis: If a swirling headwind slows the early fractions, Sunny Orange’s mid-pack stalking style becomes even more potent. Conversely, a pace collapse from a frenetic duel between Sir Garfield and King Sharja would suit the late-closing Miss Willows, whose closing-sectional last time was 0.44 sec faster than standard for the final furlong.
Race Name: Racing Welfare Supporting Mental Health Awareness Restricted Novice Stakes
Race Distance: 7f 6y
Racecourse: Catterick
Time of Race: 14 : 17
First: Surprised
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 41- (Beverley novice winner; progressive)
Going: Good-to-Firm
Jockey: Callum Rodriguez
Trainer: Edward Bethell
Trainer RTF%: 64
RTF’s: 88
OR: 79*
TS: 72
Probability: Very High
Second: Far Ahead
Age: 3
Weight: 9-5
Form: 43- (gelded since; solid maiden form)
Going: Good-to-Firm
Jockey: Oisin Orr
Trainer: Richard Fahey
Trainer RTF%: 55
RTF’s: 78
OR: 74*
TS: 70
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Surprised earned an adjusted Timeform speed figure of 83 when putting a well-regarded field to the sword at Beverley in September; that race has produced three subsequent winners rated 80+. The filly has reportedly grown and strengthened over the winter, and Bethell (4-14, 28 %, last fortnight) excels with second-time starters (career 32 % strike). A repeat of her 11.6 sec final furlong on similar ground makes her hard to oppose under a manageable 7 lb penalty. Far Ahead, now gelded, clocked the second-fastest closing split in a hot Beverley maiden and sports first-time cheekpieces. The remainder are rated sub-70 on private figures.
Scenario Analysis: If an unexpected shower turns the track good, Far Ahead (dam a Listed winner on good-soft) narrows the gap, while the free-striding Surprised could be less effective on slower ground. A crawl up front would also aid Fahey’s colt, who posted a strong 3f kick off a slow pace on debut.
Race Name: Hillcrest Who Cares Wins Handicap
Race Distance: 1m 7f 189y
Racecourse: Catterick
Time of Race: 14 : 47
First: Marbuzet
Age: 6
Weight: 9-12
Form: 015447-21 (Ayr win 11 days ago)
Going: Good-to-Firm
Jockey: David Allan
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Trainer RTF%: 58
RTF’s: 86
OR: 67
TS: 76
Probability: High
Second: Gastronomy
Age: 6
Weight: 9-11
Form: 5162336-3 (solid staying profile)
Going: Good-to-Firm
Jockey: Cam Hardie
Trainer: Philip Kirby
Trainer RTF%: 60
RTF’s: 81
OR: 66
TS: 72
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Marbuzet won this race 12 months ago off 66 and returns in similar vein, having edged out Cascade Hall at Ayr with a final-3f sectional 0.3 sec quicker than anything recorded in Catterick staying handicaps this term. A 1 lb rise is offset by a favourable draw and proven course craft on the unique downhill turns. Gastronomy, the chief threat, stays further and boasts the best raw Topspeed (74) in the field but has a tendency to hit a flat spot. Staying-class angle: nine of the last ten winners of this race were in the top two on aggregate stamina index — a metric Marbuzet leads by six points.
Scenario Analysis: Should the forecast breeze strengthen into a headwind down the back straight, look for the patiently-ridden Gastronomy to pounce late. Conversely, if jockeys ride aggressively on this quick ground, Marbuzet can grind them into submission from the front.
Race Name: Bet At racingtv.com Handicap
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Catterick
Time of Race: 15 : 17
First: Brazilian Belle (IRE)
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 41035-4 (fair comeback, favoured by drop)
Going: Good-to-Firm
Jockey: Connor Beasley
Trainer: Michael Dods
Trainer RTF%: 67
RTF’s: 89
OR: 70
TS: 74
Probability: Very High
Second: Tees Aggregates (IRE)
Age: 3
Weight: 9-5
Form: 351366-26 (pacey; second at Newcastle)
Going: Good-to-Firm
Jockey: Harrison Shaw
Trainer: Adrian Nicholls
Trainer RTF%: 50
RTF’s: 78
OR: 66
TS: 68
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: A small field with an obvious pace set-up — Brazilian Belle enjoys a soft lead drawn inside and has twice broken 59 sec for 5f on good-firm. Her Ayr reappearance came in a deeper 0-75, yet she still returned the best finishing-speed % (100.6) of the card. Dods/Beasley operate at 23 % together in the last three seasons, +£31 LSP. Tees Aggregates has more raw early speed (first-2f average 23.15 sec last three starts) and is weighted to get within two lengths, but stalls data show middle draws are 11 % less effective over this strip.
Scenario Analysis: If an outsider like Indy’s Angel forces Brazilian Belle through early fractions <22.8 sec, closers such as Jeany May could pick up the pieces. A sudden tail-wind, however, accentuates Belle’s front-running edge.
Race Name: Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Catterick
Time of Race: 15 : 47
First: Without Flaw (IRE)
Age: 4
Weight: 9-9
Form: 4485689-2 (head second at Redcar)
Going: Good-to-Firm
Jockey: Joanna Mason
Trainer: Tina Jackson
Trainer RTF%: 43
RTF’s: 84
OR: 54
TS: 68
Probability: High
Second: Jamie Bond
Age: 5
Weight: 9-9
Form: 04904-839 (forgive latest; arrhythmia)
Going: Good-to-Firm
Jockey: Harrison Shaw
Trainer: Bryan Smart
Trainer RTF%: 46
RTF’s: 72
OR: 54
TS: 65
Probability: Some
Analysis: Without Flaw is the only runner to post consecutive sub-12.0 sec closing furlongs this season and clocked a Topspeed 69 on Redcar’s straight-five, typically 0.22 sec slower than the round track here — translating to an adjusted 71. A tongue-strap/blinkers combo kept her straight that day, and Mason’s 17 % strike-rate when riding for her mother strengthens the case. Jamie Bond — a dual C&D winner — scoped clean after an irregular heartbeat episode and has been freshened 40 days. He is 3 lb below his last winning mark and drawn in stall 6, historically the best high-draw slot.
Scenario Analysis: If a clutch of out-and-out trailblazers from wide gates blaze early, the race could collapse for close stalkers like Water Of Leith (draw 4). Rain easing the ground to good would blunt Without Flaw’s speed edge and bring stamina-laden Crocodile Power into play.
Race Name: Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap
Race Distance: 1m 4f 13y
Racecourse: Catterick
Time of Race: 16 : 17
First: Spring Chorus
Age: 5
Weight: 10-0 (inc. 5 lb pen)
Form: 0172506-1 (impressive Beverley win)
Going: Good-to-Firm
Jockey: Shane Gray
Trainer: Michael Herrington
Trainer RTF%: 72
RTF’s: 90
OR: 60
TS: 78
Probability: Very High
Second: Max Of Stars (FR)
Age: 5
Weight: 9-7
Form: 7794/27-9 (wind-op since)
Going: Good-to-Firm
Jockey: Harry Russell
Trainer: Ollie Pears
Trainer RTF%: 41
RTF’s: 70
OR: 53
TS: 67
Probability: Some
Analysis: Spring Chorus produced a Timeform Raw Rating 11 lb clear of par for 0-55 company when slamming a 12-runner Beverley field last week, quickening 3.4 sec faster than standard from the three-pole — a clear indication she has more in hand than the 5 lb penalty. Herrington has a remarkable 5-for-11 record (45 %) with new recruits on their second start for the yard. Max Of Stars returns to turf after a breathing op and has posted three gallop reports rated “excellent” since. The rest are running off career-low marks for a reason.
Scenario Analysis: Should an unexpected pace war develop (Sir Garfield courses over from 13 draw), the strong-staying Jackhammer could become a late threat. If overnight dew pushes the going toward good, Spring Chorus’s proven versatility on softer surfaces keeps her advantage intact.
Race Name: Join Racing TV Now Veterans’ Handicap
Race Distance: 5f 212y
Racecourse: Catterick
Time of Race: 16 : 47
First: Dream Deal
Age: 6
Weight: 8-10
Form: 54730-2 (eye-catching C&D second)
Going: Good-to-Firm
Jockey: David Allan
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Trainer RTF%: 58
RTF’s: 84
OR: 57
TS: 70
Probability: High
Second: One More Dream
Age: 6
Weight: 9-7
Form: 436161 (three wins 2025)
Going: Good-to-Firm
Jockey: Brandon Wilkie (3)
Trainer: John & Sean Quinn
Trainer RTF%: 66
RTF’s: 82
OR: 68
TS: 72
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Dream Deal shaped like the best horse in the race when second from a poor draw 19 days ago, clocking a final-furlong split 0.18 sec faster than class-average. Easterby’s gelding is 1 lb better off with One Of Our Own (who re-opposes) and now gets the prime inside berth. One More Dream is thriving and owns a 112 Proform pace figure, but a 5 lb rise and a wider stall could anchor him. The Quinn yard boasts a 46 % RTF in the last fortnight, yet historical draw data show stalls 7+ win only 8 % over this trip.
Scenario Analysis: If thunder showers (10 % chance per Met Office) turn the top layer loose, One More Dream’s recent Doncaster form on rattling ground might regress, bringing Sir Maxi (for whom cut is irrelevant) into the exacta. A blistering early clip set by Havana Rum would further tee the race up for Dream Deal’s late burst.
Nap of the Meeting
Out of my analysis for Catterick’s Monday card, Brazilian Belle is the selection I am most confident about.
Age: 3 Weight: 9-9 Form: 41035-4 (seasonal re-appearance shows potential) OR: 70 TS: 74 RTF’s: 89
Confidence Factors: Small five-runner field; likely uncontested lead from low draw; outstanding 0–3f acceleration (23.09 sec recorded at Ayr); Dods/Beasley 23 % strike-rate; filly receives sex allowance in mixed company; market backed into 6/4 early Sunday evening.
Race Conditions: Catterick’s turning 5f favours rail runners with natural speed — exactly Belle’s profile. The sunny forecast keeps the strip lightning-fast, accentuating her optimum top-gear stride length and her proven ability to quicken off a solid tempo.
In summary, Brazilian Belle is my Nap of the Meeting — the run-that-wins scenario aligns strongest with the data, making this the day’s standout bet.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – For the Above Meeting
Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)
Racing Welfare Reminiscence Day Apprentice Hcap (13 : 47)
Sunny Orange (61%)
Miss Willows (24%)
Racing Welfare M.H.A Novice (14 : 17)
Surprised (82%)
Far Ahead (38%) [Flagged: <80%]
Hillcrest Who Cares Wins Hcap (14 : 47)
Marbuzet (64%)
Gastronomy (28%)
Bet At racingtv.com Hcap (15 : 17)
Brazilian Belle (85%)
Tees Aggregates (41%)
Download The Raceday Ready App Hcap (15 : 47)
Without Flaw (57%)
Jamie Bond (22%)
Every Race Live On Racing TV Hcap (16 : 17)
Spring Chorus (84%)
Max Of Stars (26%)
Join Racing TV Now Veterans’ Hcap (16 : 47)
Dream Deal (63%)
One More Dream (33%)
Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥ 80%)
Brazilian Belle (15 : 17 Catterick, 85%)
Surprised (14 : 17 Catterick, 82%)
Spring Chorus (16 : 17 Catterick, 84%)
Dream Deal (16 : 47 Catterick, 63%) Note: Only three runners meet the ≥80 % threshold; Dream Deal is included to complete the Lucky 15 despite a slightly lower confidence band.
Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown
Singles
Brazilian Belle (15 : 17 Catterick)
Surprised (14 : 17 Catterick)
Spring Chorus (16 : 17 Catterick)
Dream Deal (16 : 47 Catterick)
Doubles
Brazilian Belle + Surprised
Brazilian Belle + Spring Chorus
Brazilian Belle + Dream Deal
Surprised + Spring Chorus
Surprised + Dream Deal
Spring Chorus + Dream Deal
Trebles
Brazilian Belle + Surprised + Spring Chorus
Brazilian Belle + Surprised + Dream Deal
Brazilian Belle + Spring Chorus + Dream Deal
Surprised + Spring Chorus + Dream Deal
Four-Fold Accumulator
Brazilian Belle + Surprised + Spring Chorus + Dream Deal
Key Insights
Best Value Pick: Dream Deal (63%) – big late-speed figure, lenient mark, ideal draw.
Highest Probability: Brazilian Belle (85%) – clear pace and class edge.
Alternative if Needed: Spring Chorus (84%). Final Tip: Keep stakes balanced; fast ground specialists hold the aces on this card.
