Bet Smart & Win — Chelmsford Race Preview
Thursday 06 November 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Lewis Edmunds
- T: William Muir & Chris Grassick
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Commanding C&D win; profiles as strongest value in small field.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Arrives in form; respected with top jockey booked.
Details
- J: Jack Dace
- T: David Flood
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Consistent; may find one too good if pace doesn’t collapse.
Details
- J: Luke Morris
- T: William Knight
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Two wins in last three; fair value to go in again.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Charlie Fellowes
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Unexposed; likely improver at this trip.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Tom Ward
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Solid recent winner; enters calculations again.
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: Michael Bell
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Penalised winner who sets a solid standard; likely front of market.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Roger Varian
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Strong form claims; wide draw a slight concern.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Ed Walker
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Interesting type; more of a place/thought experiment at prices.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Roger Varian
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Progressive filly; good draw; model top pick.
Details
- J: George Wood
- T: Richard Spencer
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
In excellent nick; main danger if translating turf peak.
Details
- J: Darragh Keenan
- T: Denis Quinn
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 14%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
C&D winner; capable of hitting frame at prices.
Details
- J: Lewis Edmunds
- T: Roger Teal
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 103%
Analysis
Clear form standard; justified short price.
Details
- J: William Cox
- T: Georgina Nicholls
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 103%
Analysis
Place claims if progressing again.
Details
- J: Alistair Rawlinson
- T: Simon Hodgson
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 103%
Analysis
Needs a step forward to trouble chief.
Details
- J: Conor Orr
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Figures stack up; fair value in a tight sprint.
Details
- J: Jack Dace
- T: Michael Appleby
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Hardy C&D winner; remains on the shortlist.
Details
- J: Luke Morris
- T: Ian Williams
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Consistent; has the form to feature again.
Details
- J: Toby Moore
- T: Dylan Cunha
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Good second at Lingfield; narrow preference.
Details
- J: Darragh Keenan
- T: Conrad Allen
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Good draw; inside speed; major player.
Details
- J: Marco Ghiani
- T: Clare Hobson
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
C&D winner; each-way appeal.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Roger Varian
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Back to a suitable trip; forgiven last run; strong chance.
Details
- J: Billy Garritty
- T: Michael & David Easterby
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 26%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Honest type; should be thereabouts again.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Charlie Clover
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Recent efforts solid; place claims again.
Analysis
Progressive profile; ideal class and runner range; strong Fair value on our model. Back with confidence.