Bet Smart & Win — Chelmsford Race Preview
Thursday 23 October 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: David Egan
- T: Kevin Philippart De Foy
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds (Dec): 5.00
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
The BF brings the strongest form; NP exceeds IP by 4% — solid edge.
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: James Fanshawe
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds (Dec): 5.56
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Debut promise; model sees price as broadly fair (NP ≈ IP).
Details
- J: Finley Marsh
- T: Richard Hughes
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds (Dec): 7.69
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Solid experience; value marked as fair behind principals.
Details
- J: Sean Kirrane
- T: Tim Easterby
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds (Dec): 5.26
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Arrives in form; NP > IP gives a clear value uptick.
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: James Fanshawe
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds (Dec): 6.67
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Reliable profile; model rates current quotes as fair.
Details
- J: George Wood
- T: Harry Eustace
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds (Dec): 10.00
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
LTO winner; progressive yard form — fair price as lively outsider.
Details
- J: Alex Jary
- T: Nigel Tinkler
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds (Dec): 4.17
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Recent winner; step up in trip should suit; price reads fair.
Details
- J: David Egan
- T: Dylan Cunha
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 18%
- Odds (Dec): 4.17
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Trip looks a plus; joint market leader; fair on the figures.
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: Michael Bell
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds (Dec): 8.33
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
LTO winner; fair each-way alternative to the top two.
Details
- J: William Buick
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds (Dec): 3.57
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Most likely winner; NP edge confirms small but real value.
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds (Dec): 5.00
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Clear threat; model keeps him as fair value behind the pick.
Details
- J: Oisin Murphy
- T: Marcus Tregoning
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds (Dec): 5.88
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Reliable yardstick; fair to complete the frame.
Details
- J: George Wood
- T: Charlie Wallis
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds (Dec): 5.00
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Good recent C&D run; fair against fav, shortlist material.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: George Baker
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds (Dec): 3.57
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Rightful fav; most likely winner; value marked fair.
Details
- J: David Egan
- T: Clare Hobson
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds (Dec): 8.33
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Consistent; best of the rest to fill minor money.
Details
- J: Finley Marsh
- T: Richard Hughes
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds (Dec): 5.88
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Strong value assessment (NP > IP by 2%); ideal 1m setup.
Details
- J: Oisin Murphy
- T: Saeed bin Suroor
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds (Dec): 4.76
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Unexposed LTO winner; model still finds a modest edge.
Details
- J: George Wood
- T: Richard Spencer
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds (Dec): 5.26
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Recent C&D winner; holds another small NP>IP edge.
Details
- J: Paddy Bradley
- T: Simon Dow
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds (Dec): 2.70
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
Rightful fav under penalty; dominates on ratings; value fair.
Details
- J: Pat Cosgrave
- T: Jim Boyle
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds (Dec): 5.00
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
Main threat; consistent and fairly priced.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: Thomas Faulkner
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds (Dec): 4.35
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
C&D winner; fair to round out the three.
Details
- J: David Egan
- T: Phil McEntee
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds (Dec): 7.14
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Won here last week; NP edge persists despite penalty.
Details
- J: Paddy Bradley
- T: Pat Phelan
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds (Dec): 6.25
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
C&D winner; strong contender at a fair quote.
Details
- J: Laura Pearson
- T: John Ryan
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds (Dec): 11.11
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
In-form yard; fair price with EW claims at double figures.
Analysis
Strong value assessment (NP 19% > IP 17%), ideal 1m Class 5 with 10 runners, solid C&D profile. Back with confidence.