Bet Smart & Win — Cheltenham Race Preview
Saturday 15 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Keith Donoghue
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trip: 2m 87y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: 4/1
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Improving Irish juvenile who shaped well in strong company; profile suggests further progress on a stiffer track.
Details
- J: Philip Byrnes
- T: C Byrnes
- Trip: 2m 87y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: 11/4
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Stylish winner in Ireland and handles testing ground; leading claims if adapting to this sharper tempo.
Details
- J: Tom Cannon
- T: Alan King
- Trip: 2m 87y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: 33/1
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Big price but shaped better than bare result on debut; each-way squeak if improving for experience and the hill.
Details
- J: Mr Freddie Gordon
- T: C Gordon
- Trip: 3m 1f
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: 6/1
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Progressive staying chaser with solid figures on soft/heavy; unexposed at the trip and still on the upgrade.
Details
- J: Mr S Waley-Cohen
- T: N Henderson
- Trip: 3m 1f
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: 7/2
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Lightly raced and shaped well on return; strong yard target these amateur contests and mark looks workable.
Details
- J: Mr W Biddick
- T: Emma Lavelle
- Trip: 3m 1f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 25/1
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Consistent in big-field handicaps and stays strongly; a place player if the race turns into a stamina test.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 1m 7f 199y
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: 11/10
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Classy hurdler who jumped well on chase debut; front-rank Arkle type and sets a high bar if repeating that effort.
Details
- J: Tom Marquand
- T: Milton Harris
- Trip: 1m 7f 199y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: 5/1
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Smart on the Flat and over hurdles; if fencing improves from debut, he has the engine to lay down a serious challenge.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: Donald McCain
- Trip: 1m 7f 199y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: 11/4
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Likeable type who jumps accurately and stays well; could pick up the pieces if the principals over-race up front.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m 4f 44y
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: 8/1
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Strong-travelling sort with proven course form; looks ahead of his mark and should be suited by a truly-run handicap.
Details
- J: Freddie Gingell
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m 4f 44y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: 5/1
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Last year’s winner remains well handicapped; rock-solid profile but market has his chance about right.
Details
- J: J J Burke
- T: F O’Brien
- Trip: 2m 4f 44y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: 16/1
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Course winner with strong form in deep ground; viable each-way angle if jumping holds up in a big field.
Details
- J: Sean Flanagan
- T: Peter Fahey
- Trip: 2m 7f 208y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: 6/1
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Strong stayer who powered up the hill last time; looks leniently treated for his first go in this grade.
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Nicky Richards
- Trip: 2m 7f 208y
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: 11/4
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Improver who travels strongly and finds off the bridle; clear form chance but handicapper has reacted.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Nigel Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m 7f 208y
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: 5/1
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Well related and already a course winner; handicapped to figure if the emphasis falls on stamina.
Details
- J: Freddie Keighley
- T: Martin Keighley
- Trip: 2m 4f 56y
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: 20/1
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Did incredibly well to win here despite a serious mid-race error; lightly raced and looks ahead of her mark.
Details
- J: Philip Byrnes
- T: W Durkan
- Trip: 2m 4f 56y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 4/1
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
In-form Irish raider with a good record in the mud; no surprise if he proves well treated on British debut.
Details
- J: David Noonan
- T: Mrs Jane Williams
- Trip: 2m 4f 56y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: 10/1
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Reliable mare with strong handicap form; should be thereabouts again, especially if the leaders overdo it.
Details
- J: Nico de Boinville
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 2m 87y
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: 5/1
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Authoritative winner of a Southwell bumper, travelling strongly throughout; huge scope for improvement in a yard that excels in this race type.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Thomas Cooper
- Trip: 2m 87y
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: 4/1
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Impressed with a strong finishing effort at Listowel; handles deep ground and the Cheltenham hill looks tailor-made.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m 87y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: 11/2
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Point winner who impressed at Aintree on rules debut; big frame and deep engine make her a serious player despite the class rise.
Analysis
Devastating bumper winner at Southwell who travelled like a high-class mare; with Henderson’s record in this sphere and a top jockey booked, she profiles as the most likely winner on the card. Heavy ground and the stiffer finish should bring her stamina into play — a confident Nap of the Meeting.