Bet Smart & Win — Cheltenham Race Preview
Sunday 16 November 2025 • 6 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: James Bowen
- T: Warren Greatrex
- Trip: 2m 87y
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Model Odds (dec, from IP): 6.41
- Overround: 111.2%
Analysis
Proven on soft ground and already competitive in graded company, Gaelic Pride sets a strong standard in this maiden. His hurdling is reliable, he travels sweetly, and the yard is going well; Fair value but still the one they all have to beat.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston Davies
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 2m 87y
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Model Odds (dec, from IP): 7.30
- Overround: 111.2%
Analysis
Smart Flat form marks him down as a serious talent if taking to hurdles properly. Pedigree says soft ground should be within range and his raw engine gives him Above Fair upside if jumping holds together.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m 87y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Model Odds (dec, from IP): 11.36
- Overround: 111.2%
Analysis
Point and hurdles form both read well and this step up in trip looks ideal for a strong stayer. The Skelton team are in good form and if his jumping holds up he can easily get involved at Fair odds.
Details
- J: Richard Deegan
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 2m 4f 44y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Model Odds (dec, from IP): 6.17
- Overround: 109.5%
Analysis
Brings valuable French chase experience and handles soft ground well. Strong recent figures suggest he can sit handy and travel; if he jumps cleanly he looks a solid Above Fair play for a powerful yard.
Details
- J: Ben Godfrey
- T: Anthony Honeyball
- Trip: 2m 4f 44y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Model Odds (dec, from IP): 5.32
- Overround: 109.5%
Analysis
Point and hurdles form both mark him down as a relentless galloper who should relish this test. With a sound attitude and scope for fences, he rates an Above Fair favourite if his jumping stands up to scrutiny.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m 4f 44y
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Model Odds (dec, from IP): 5.00
- Overround: 109.5%
Analysis
Highest-rated on hurdles form and clearly has the engine for this grade. Needs to translate that ability to fences but if his jumping holds together he is a major player at Fair odds.
Details
- J: Richard Deegan
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 1m 7f 199y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Model Odds (dec, from IP): 9.80
- Overround: 112.8%
Analysis
French chase winner who could easily outclass this field if reproducing his best overseas form. Trip and track should suit, and although soft ground is a small unknown his profile screams Above Fair potential.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Faye Bramley
- Trip: 1m 7f 199y
- Trainer RTF%: 83%
- Model Odds (dec, from IP): 9.80
- Overround: 112.8%
Analysis
Course winner with back-class in stronger races and a mark that now looks workable. If the Cobden partnership sparks him back to life, his finishing effort and strong SecEff-J make him an Above Fair player.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: Jamie Snowden
- Trip: 1m 7f 199y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Model Odds (dec, from IP): 9.80
- Overround: 112.8%
Analysis
Progressive profile prior to a fall; if confidence is intact he still looks ahead of his mark. Proven on soft and usually a sound jumper, he offers Fair value in a deep heat. Each-way terms (4 places / 1/5) make him very playable.
Details
- J: Charlie Deutsch
- T: Venetia Williams
- Trip: 3m 3f 71y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Model Odds (dec, from IP): 6.33
- Overround: 110.5%
Analysis
Stays very strongly in deep ground and looks tailor-made for a war of attrition around Cheltenham. SecEff-J figures point to a powerful finish up the hill and his jumping is economical; an Above Fair price makes him a compelling Nap candidate.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 3m 3f 71y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Model Odds (dec, from IP): 5.88
- Overround: 110.5%
Analysis
Class act dropping into a handicap and very well treated on peak Grade 1 form. Fitness is the main question after a break, but if ready he offers Above Fair value and could simply outclass them.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 3m 3f 71y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Model Odds (dec, from IP): 5.29
- Overround: 110.5%
Analysis
Strong stayer with a likeable attitude and form in big-field handicaps. Likely to be played late, which suits this race shape, and he rates a Fair value option for each-way backers.
Details
- J: Jonathan Burke
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m 87y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Model Odds (dec, from IP): 12.05
- Overround: 118.5%
Analysis
Lightly raced and still open to plenty of improvement, he shapes like one who will relish a strongly-run Greatwood on soft. From a yard that targets these races, his profile screams Above Fair each-way with 5 places on offer.
Details
- J: Brendan Powell
- T: Joe Tizzard
- Trip: 2m 87y
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Model Odds (dec, from IP): 13.33
- Overround: 118.5%
Analysis
Useful Flat form has transferred to hurdles and his mark still looks workable. Strong-travelling type who should be suited by a big-field scenario, offering Above Fair value in a race where many are exposed.
Details
- J: Tom Cannon
- T: Alan King
- Trip: 2m 87y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Model Odds (dec, from IP): 13.33
- Overround: 118.5%
Analysis
Already a course winner who thrives on soft ground and has a strong SecEff-J profile over a sharp 2m. With the King yard in fair order, he makes a lot of sense as an Above Fair each-way play in a notoriously tricky handicap.
Details
- J: Keith Donoghue
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trip: 2m 87y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Model Odds (dec, from IP): 2.32
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Listed winner who sets a high standard on bumper form and has already shown he handles cut. Experience and proven class make him the standout, with a clear NP>IP edge underpinning his Above Fair rating.
Details
- J: Jonathan Burke
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m 87y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Model Odds (dec, from IP): 8.47
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Debut win backed up by a solid follow-up effort; he remains open to plenty of improvement. The O’Brien/Burke axis is potent in these races and at Fair odds he is the obvious danger to the favourite.
Details
- J: Ciaran Gethings
- T: Alastair Ralph
- Trip: 2m 87y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Model Odds (dec, from IP): 13.70
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Improved to win last time and that performance suggests he can hold his own at this level. Stamina for a strong-run bumper looks assured and he offers Fair each-way interest at bigger prices.
Analysis
Venetia Williams’ staying chaser looks perfectly suited by a stern test in soft ground over 3m3f. His SecEff-J data points to a powerful finish up the hill and his jumping is both efficient and reliable. With NP comfortably above IP in a fair overround, this is the “run-that-wins” scenario for the model — back Tanganyika with confidence as the Nap of the Meeting.