Bet Smart & Win — Cheltenham Race Preview
Friday 24 October 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White
- Trip: 2m3f200y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Key value profile: NP > IP in a big-field handicap; novice form suggests further upside.
Details
- J: Elliott England
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m3f200y
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Arrives in top form; stable RTF% strong; NP > IP gives positive value signal.
Details
- J: James Turner
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m3f200y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Solid form; NP above IP suggests underestimated chance at the prices.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 1m7f199y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Clear top on NP; NP > IP marks strong Above Fair value on chase profile.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 1m7f199y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Solid contender; second chase start can bring improvement; fair value.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 1m7f199y
- Trainer RTF%: 73%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Fits class profile; probabilities tightly matched; fair value contender.
Details
- J: Freddie Keighley
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m87y
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Unexposed; NP > IP gives AF tag; scope to progress for top yard.
Details
- J: Nathan Howie
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 2m87y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Competitive rating; NP above IP keeps him in the value mix.
Details
- J: Freddie Gordon
- T: Chris Gordon
- Trip: 2m87y
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Likely market leader; NP≈IP for a fair value profile.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m87y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Strongest selection on NP; clear AF rating with margin over IP.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m87y
- Trainer RTF%: 73%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Solid profile; NP edge over IP retains value case behind the top pick.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m87y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Key rival on figures; NP≈IP for a fair assessment.
Details
- J: J J Slevin
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 1m7f199y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Front-running style suits; NP > IP yields AF edge in a quality handicap.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 1m7f199y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Major player; positive NP-IP gap sustains AF value claim.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 1m7f199y
- Trainer RTF%: 66%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Market leader; fair value with NP≈IP; obvious chance.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m3f200y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Experienced profile; NP over IP underpins AF call.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m3f200y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Market leader; fair value per NP≈IP; major player.
Details
- J: Richie McLernon
- T: Jonjo & A J O’Neill
- Trip: 2m3f200y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Compelling profile; NP > IP yields AF designation.
Details
- J: Mr H C Swan
- T: John C McConnell
- Trip: 3m1f
- Trainer RTF%: 32%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Standout AF pick; shape on chase debut and NP > IP create value case.
Details
- J: Miss Amber Jackson-Fennell
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 3m1f
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Course form in favour; NP edge over IP sustains AF tag.
Details
- J: Mr B O’Neill
- T: Jamie Snowden
- Trip: 3m1f
- Trainer RTF%: 69%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Market leader; fair value per NP≈IP; leading contender.
Analysis
Front-runner with ideal class profile; NP > IP, course suits. Back with confidence.