Bet Smart & Win — Cheltenham Race Preview
Saturday 25 October 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m4f44y
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Top selection with positive value; profile suits the test.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Anthony Honeyball
- Trip: 2m4f44y
- Trainer RTF%: 73%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Fair value; consistent profile in a competitive heat.
Details
- J: Donagh Meyler
- T: Emmet Mullins
- Trip: 2m4f44y
- Trainer RTF%: 79%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
On the shortlist; appeals as a place player.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m7f208y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Strong favourite with positive value signal.
Details
- J: Alex Harvey
- T: John C McConnell
- Trip: 2m7f208y
- Trainer RTF%: 26%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Solid value; main danger to the favourite.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Anthony Honeyball
- Trip: 2m7f208y
- Trainer RTF%: 73%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Slightly negative value but respected for place purposes.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 3m1f
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Model top pick; strong value in deep handicap.
Details
- J: Nico de Boinville
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 3m1f
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Fair value; profiles well for the test.
Details
- J: Conor O’Farrell
- T: Neil Mulholland
- Trip: 3m1f
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Solid place claims at fair value.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m7f208y
- Trainer RTF%: 76%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Clear standout; ticks value and conditions.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m7f208y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Positive value; should be finishing strongly.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Emma Lavelle
- Trip: 2m7f208y
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Reliable; holds frame claims at fair value.
Details
- J: Caoilin Quinn
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trip: 2m87y
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Dominant value signal in a small field.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m87y
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Clear second-best on our figures.
Details
- J: Derek Fox
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m87y
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Place material; win chance limited by value profile.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: David Kenneth Budds
- Trip: 3m1f
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Edges the market on value; stamina the key.
Details
- J: Alex Harvey
- T: John C McConnell
- Trip: 3m1f
- Trainer RTF%: 26%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Favourite but below-fair value on our numbers.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 3m1f
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Class angle; value neutral but respected.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m87y
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Positive value; sets a clear standard.
Details
- J: Jonathan Burke
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m87y
- Trainer RTF%: 35%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Right behind the top pick on value; big player.
Details
- J: Alex Harvey
- T: John C McConnell
- Trip: 2m87y
- Trainer RTF%: 26%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Clear third-best; place claims.
Analysis
Class 2 Handicap Chase over 3m1f on Good to Soft. Strong positive value, ideal setup, and peak scenario alignment.