How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the true fair market value for every race. By stripping out the hidden bookmaker margin, we reveal where the odds are genuinely in your favour.
This gives our subscribers an almost unfair advantage, turning everyday prices into powerful, data-driven bets.
Race 1: NetBet £20 Free Bet Welcome Apprentice Handicap (Class 6)
Race Distance: 5f16y
Racecourse: Chepstow
Time of Race: 5:30
First: #3 Mollymook
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 364-83
Jockey: Donagh Murphy
Trainer: Darryll Holland
Trainer RTF%: 23
RTFs: 59
OR: 64
TS: 73
SecEff (0–1): 0.90 (est.)
Probability: 28%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #1 Level Up
Age: 6
Weight: 10-5
Form: 567121
Jockey: Oliver Searle
Trainer: David Evans
Trainer RTF%: 67
RTFs: 53
OR: 69
TS: 75
SecEff (0–1): 0.88 (est.)
Probability: 25%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Third: #7 Fear And Fast
Form: -00252
Jockey: Tommie Jakes
Trainer: Ismail Mohammed
Probability: 18%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Mollymook, lightly raced and progressive, shaped well on handicap debut at Yarmouth and benefits from a slight drop in the weights. Level Up is in top form, chasing a hat-trick but carries a penalty, which could blunt his edge late on. Fear And Fast has been knocking on the door and is drawn well for a prominent run. The pace map suggests Mollymook and Level Up will be handy throughout, with Fear And Fast tracking just behind. Trainer stats favour Level Up, but Mollymook’s profile and value edge tip the balance.
Scenario Analysis:
If the ground firms further, front-runners may be favoured, boosting Level Up’s claims. If there’s a strong early pace, Mollymook’s stamina and closing sectionals could prove decisive.
Overround Insight: This race operates at 118% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 18%. This is considered average, with the market showing respect for the top two but leaving room for value in Mollymook and Fear And Fast1.
Race 2: NetBet Loves Ray Parlour / EBF Novice Stakes (Class 5)
Race Distance: 6f16y
Racecourse: Chepstow
Time of Race: 6:00
First: #2 Flying Comet
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
Form: 3
Jockey: Harry Davies
Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford
Trainer RTF%: 40
RTFs: 62
OR: —
TS: 84
SecEff (0–1): 0.92 (est.)
Probability: 43%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #4 This Guy
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
Form: 54
Jockey: Finley Marsh
Trainer: Clive Cox
Trainer RTF%: 59
RTFs: 34
OR: —
TS: 76
SecEff (0–1): 0.89 (est.)
Probability: 25%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Third: #5 Shams
Form: —
Jockey: Joe Leavy
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Probability: 18%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Flying Comet shaped with promise on debut, running green but finishing with purpose. The extra furlong suits and the Crisford yard excels with second-time starters. This Guy showed improvement last time and is likely to progress again, while Shams is well-bred and respected on debut. The field is small, so tactical speed will be crucial. Flying Comet’s debut sectionals suggest he can dominate late.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace is muddling, This Guy could get first run. If the ground is riding quicker, Flying Comet’s finishing kick is a bigger asset.
Overround Insight: 122% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 22%. This is high, reflecting uncertainty with several unexposed types231.
Race 3: Wasdell Group Handicap (Class 4)
Race Distance: 5f16y
Racecourse: Chepstow
Time of Race: 6:30
First: #1 Master Of My Fate
Age: 4
Weight: 10-2
Form: 766413
Jockey: Jack Nicholls
Trainer: John & Sean Quinn
Trainer RTF%: 78
RTFs: 91
OR: 87
TS: 91
SecEff (0–1): 0.91 (est.)
Probability: 26%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #4 Reservardo
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 33-132
Jockey: Harry Davies
Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford
Trainer RTF%: 40
RTFs: 69
OR: 84
TS: 95
SecEff (0–1): 0.89 (est.)
Probability: 24%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Third: #3 Kinetic Force
Form: -76102
Jockey: Ryan Kavanagh
Trainer: D Donovan
Probability: 18%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Master Of My Fate drops in grade and has a 7lb claimer, which could be decisive. Reservardo is ultra-consistent and still improving, while Kinetic Force is a pace angle and should be respected if getting an easy lead. The race sets up for a strong closer, with Master Of My Fate’s late speed and sectionals giving him the edge.
Scenario Analysis:
If the early pace collapses, Reservardo’s stamina could see him home. If the field crawls, Kinetic Force could steal it from the front.
Overround Insight: 116% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 16%. This is average, with the market slightly favouring the top two1.
Race 4: NetBet £5,000 Correct Score Jackpot Handicap (Class 4)
Race Distance: 6f16y
Racecourse: Chepstow
Time of Race: 7:00
First: #4 Jax Edge
Age: 5
Weight: 9-9
Form: 2011-2
Jockey: Gina Mangan
Trainer: Christopher Mason
Trainer RTF%: 83
RTFs: 71
OR: 72
TS: 86
SecEff (0–1): 0.93 (est.)
Probability: 29%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #1 Chief Mankato
Age: 4
Weight: 10-2
Form: 6-3202
Jockey: Edward Greatrex
Trainer: Jack Channon
Trainer RTF%: 71
RTFs: 78
OR: 79
TS: 85
SecEff (0–1): 0.89 (est.)
Probability: 23%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Third: #3 Dapperling
Form: 9-9013
Jockey: Tyrese Cameron
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Probability: 19%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Jax Edge is a course specialist and ran a big race on reappearance. Chief Mankato is consistent and well-handicapped, while Dapperling is progressive. Jax Edge’s pace profile and track record make her a standout. The field is competitive, but the value is with Jax Edge, especially if she breaks well.
Scenario Analysis:
A strong early pace could set it up for Chief Mankato. If the ground firms further, Jax Edge’s speed is even more potent.
Overround Insight: 117% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 17%. This is average, with the market tightly bunched at the top145.
Race 5: Sweda Charity UK Handicap (Class 6)
Race Distance: 6f16y
Racecourse: Chepstow
Time of Race: 7:35
First: #4 Filly’s Last Lady
Age: 4
Weight: 9-8
Form: 49-71
Jockey: Finley Marsh
Trainer: Keiran Burke
Trainer RTF%: 14
RTFs: 57
OR: 54
TS: 68
SecEff (0–1): 0.88 (est.)
Probability: 27%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #3 Four Adaay
Age: 7
Weight: 9-9
Form: 254873
Jockey: Lewis Edmunds
Trainer: Rod Millman
Trainer RTF%: 50
RTFs: 53
OR: 55
TS: 67
SecEff (0–1): 0.88 (est.)
Probability: 21%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Third: #2 Zaman Daar
Form: 664942
Jockey: Tommie Jakes
Trainer: Ismail Mohammed
Probability: 18%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Filly’s Last Lady is unexposed and won well at Bath, with that form franked since. Four Adaay is consistent at this level, while Zaman Daar is knocking on the door. Filly’s Last Lady’s sectionals and profile suggest further improvement is likely, especially on quick ground.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace is strong, Four Adaay’s stamina could come into play. A slow pace could see Zaman Daar get first run.
Overround Insight: 120% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 20%. This is high, but Filly’s Last Lady still rates above fair value1.
Race 6: Bath Racecourse Thanks NetBet Classified Stakes (Class 6)
Race Distance: 5f16y
Racecourse: Chepstow
Time of Race: 8:10
First: #4 Fishermans Cottage
Age: 6
Weight: 9-9
Form: 152232
Jockey: William Carson
Trainer: Malcolm Saunders
Trainer RTF%: 100
RTFs: 50
OR: 49
TS: 63
SecEff (0–1): 0.88 (est.)
Probability: 27%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #2 A Lady Forever
Age: 6
Weight: 9-9
Form: 555/13
Jockey: Finley Marsh
Trainer: Keiran Burke
Trainer RTF%: 14
RTFs: 13
OR: 49
TS: 62
SecEff (0–1): 0.88 (est.)
Probability: 22%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Third: #1 My Boy Harry
Form: 444213
Jockey: Frederick Larson
Trainer: Jim & Suzi Best
Probability: 19%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Fishermans Cottage is in consistent form and looks ready to win again. A Lady Forever is lightly raced and open to improvement, while My Boy Harry is reliable at this level. Fishermans Cottage’s tactical speed and consistency make him the pick.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace is slow, A Lady Forever could pounce late. If the ground rides even quicker, Fishermans Cottage’s early speed is a bigger asset.
Overround Insight: 119% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 19%. This is high, but Fishermans Cottage offers above fair value1.
Race 7: Stream Racing Live At NetBet Handicap (Class 6)
Race Distance: 2m
Racecourse: Chepstow
Time of Race: 8:45
First: #6 Casual Encounter
Age: 3
Weight: 8-8
Form: 959-53
Jockey: Rob Hornby
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Trainer RTF%: 60
RTFs: —
OR: 48
TS: 53
SecEff (0–1): 0.90 (est.)
Probability: 30%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #3 Zooks
Age: 5
Weight: 9-13
Form: 143333
Jockey: Ryan Kavanagh
Trainer: Ian Williams
Trainer RTF%: 41
RTFs: 40
OR: 51
TS: 59
SecEff (0–1): 0.89 (est.)
Probability: 24%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Third: #2 Black Smoke
Form: 519436
Jockey: Edward Greatrex
Trainer: Mark Loughnane
Probability: 17%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Casual Encounter is unexposed at this trip and shaped as if stamina is his forte. Zooks is consistent and stays well, while Black Smoke is a grinder who could grab a place if the leaders go too hard. The pace map suggests a steady gallop, which would suit Casual Encounter’s finishing speed.
Scenario Analysis:
If the ground is riding slower than advertised, Zooks’ proven stamina could see him outstay rivals. A strong early pace could bring Black Smoke into the frame.
Overround Insight: 117% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 17%. This is average, with the market focused on the top two but leaving value in Casual Encounter61.
Nap of the Meeting – Chepstow
Race Time: 7:00
Horse Name: #4 Jax Edge
Confidence Factors: Dominant recent form, proven over course and distance, clear pace advantage
Race Conditions: Good to Firm ground and a smaller field ideal for her prominent, track-loving style
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence4.
Lucky 15 Selection
Given strict criteria (minimum odds, probability, SecEff), no horse at Chepstow today meets the Bet Type Rules for a valid Win or E/W selection with sufficiently fresh and high odds. Therefore, we cannot nominate any Lucky 15 picks from this meeting.