Before You Dive In – Read This First

Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.

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Race Name: Dunraven Windows Novices’ Hurdle (GBB Race)

Race Distance: 2m3f100y
Racecourse: Chepstow
Time of Race: 4:30
First: Kdeux Saint Fray
Age: 5
Weight: 11-12
Form: 2-1116 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Jonathan Burke
Trainer: Anthony Honeyball
Trainer RTF% Form: 75%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 98
TS: 124
Probability: First Horse High

Second: The Bluesman
Age: 6
Weight: 11-12
Form: 331-1 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Harry Cobden
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Trainer RTF% Form: 58%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 95
TS: 117
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Kdeux Saint Fray has shown superior form and speed ratings, making him the clear favorite. The Bluesman is a strong contender but may struggle to match the favorite’s pace.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens further, The Bluesman’s chances improve slightly, but Kdeux Saint Fray’s consistency should prevail.

Race Name: Sun Trade Windows Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

Race Distance: 3m2f54y
Racecourse: Chepstow
Time of Race: 5:05
First: Gats And Co
Age: 10
Weight: 12-2
Form: 2-PP21 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Connor Brace
Trainer: David Brace
Trainer RTF% Form: 33%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 117
TS: 123
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Ghost Hunter
Age: 6
Weight: 11-4
Form: 444-3O (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Gavin Sheehan
Trainer: Jamie Snowden
Trainer RTF% Form: 64%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 105
TS: –
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Gats And Co’s experience and recent form give him the edge. Ghost Hunter is unproven but has potential over this distance.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Ghost Hunter’s stamina could come into play, but Gats And Co’s class should see him home.

Race Name: Sun Trade Windows Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)

Race Distance: 2m11y
Racecourse: Chepstow
Time of Race: 5:35
First: Seeyouinmydreams
Age: 7
Weight: 11-7
Form: P-1131 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Harry Cobden
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Trainer RTF% Form: 58%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 121
TS: 127
Probability: First Horse Very High

Second: Palacio
Age: 7
Weight: 11-9
Form: 5-1342 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Dylan Johnston
Trainer: Sam Thomas
Trainer RTF% Form: 100%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 123
TS: 131
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Seeyouinmydreams has the best form and jockey-trainer combo. Palacio is a strong rival but may lack the finishing speed.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Palacio’s stamina could challenge, but Seeyouinmydreams’ class should prevail.

Race Name: Dunraven Windows Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

Race Distance: 2m11y
Racecourse: Chepstow
Time of Race: 6:05
First: Ballybreeze
Age: 9
Weight: 10-11
Form: U-9P31 (Improving form)
Going: Good
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
Trainer: Samuel Drinkwater
Trainer RTF% Form: N/A
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 113
TS: 135
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Doyouknowwhatimean
Age: 8
Weight: 11-1
Form: 3P4451 (Consistent)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Tristan Durrell
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Trainer RTF% Form: 51%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 117
TS: 132
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Ballybreeze has the highest TS rating and appears to be improving rapidly. Doyouknowwhatimean is consistent but may lack the extra gear needed.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens significantly, Doyouknowwhatimean’s stamina could make this closer.

Race Name: Braceys Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div I)

Race Distance: 2m11y
Racecourse: Chepstow
Time of Race: 6:35
First: Courageous Strike
Age: 4
Weight: 10-10
Form: 2 (Promising debut)
Going: Good
Jockey: Harry Cobden
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Trainer RTF% Form: 58%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: N/A
TS: 124
Probability: First Horse Very High

Second: Almeirinda
Age: 6
Weight: 10-11
Form: 42- (Shows potential)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Charlie Deutsch
Trainer: Venetia Williams
Trainer RTF% Form: 25%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: N/A
TS: N/A
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Courageous Strike’s debut was extremely promising and Nicholls’ juveniles typically improve. Almeirinda is unexposed but needs to step up.
Scenario Analysis: Soft ground would favor Almeirinda’s stamina, but the favorite’s class should prevail.

Race Name: Braceys Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div II)

Race Distance: 2m11y
Racecourse: Chepstow
Time of Race: 7:05
First: King Of Records
Age: 5
Weight: 11-4
Form: 43 (Solid efforts)
Going: Good
Jockey: Charlie Deutsch
Trainer: Venetia Williams
Trainer RTF% Form: 25%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: N/A
TS: 111
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Roadshow
Age: 4
Weight: 10-10
Form: 3 (Promising debut)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Freddie Gingell
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Trainer RTF% Form: 58%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: N/A
TS: 93
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: King Of Records has the best form credentials, while Roadshow represents the powerful Nicholls yard but needs to improve.
Scenario Analysis: If Roadshow handles the step up in class, he could challenge, but King Of Records’ experience is key.

Race Name: Dunraven Bowl ‘Grassroots’ Open Hunters’ Chase

Race Distance: 2m7f131y
Racecourse: Chepstow
Time of Race: 7:35
First: Dalamoi
Age: 8
Weight: 11-12
Form: 46-111 (In excellent form)
Going: Good
Jockey: Mr Edward Vaughan
Trainer: Tim Vaughan
Trainer RTF% Form: N/A
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 119
TS: 126
Probability: First Horse Very High

Second: Pink Eyed Pedro
Age: 14
Weight: 11-12
Form: 21-512 (Consistent)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Mr James King
Trainer: David Brace
Trainer RTF% Form: 33%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 115
TS: 115
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Dalamoi is in sparkling form and should have too much class. Pink Eyed Pedro is consistent but his age may be a factor.
Scenario Analysis: Heavy ground would bring Pink Eyed Pedro into contention, but Dalamoi’s recent wins are persuasive.

Race Name: Braceys Mares’ Handicap Hurdle

Race Distance: 2m7f131y
Racecourse: Chepstow
Time of Race: 8:05
First: Dancingontheedge
Age: 8
Weight: 10-8
Form: -51243 (Progressive)
Going: Good
Jockey: Harry Cobden
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Trainer RTF% Form: 58%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 97
TS: 121
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Northern Symphonie
Age: 5
Weight: 10-9
Form: -88571 (Improving)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
Trainer: Keiran Burke
Trainer RTF% Form: N/A
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 98
TS: 118
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Dancingontheedge has the best form and represents a top yard. Northern Symphonie is improving but needs to find more.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Northern Symphonie’s stamina could make this interesting, but the favorite is rightly favored.

Best Value for Money Horse at Chepstow (25th April 2025)

Out of my analysis for Chepstow, Seeyouinmydreams shows the best value for money based on:
Age: 7
Weight: 11-7
Form: P-1131 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 121
TS: 127
RTF’s: Ran To Form

Form and Improvement: Seeyouinmydreams has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making her a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The conditions on the day are expected to suit her, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.

In summary, Seeyouinmydreams presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.

Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Chepstow – 25th April 2025

Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)

Dunraven Windows Novices’ Hurdle (16:30)

• The Bluesman (85%)
• Kdeux Saint Fray (80%)

Sun Trade Windows Handicap Chase (17:05)

• Gats And Co (70%)
• Mythe Bridge (65%) [Flagged: <80%]

Sun Trade Windows Handicap Hurdle (17:35)

• Seeyouinmydreams (80%)
• Helnwein (75%) [Flagged: <80%]

Dunraven Windows Handicap Chase (18:05)

• Ballybreeze (85%)
• Doyouknowwhatimean (80%)

Braceys Maiden Hurdle (Div I) (18:35)

• Wild Goose (75%) [Flagged: <80%]
• Harksman (70%) [Flagged: <80%]

Braceys Maiden Hurdle (Div II) (19:05)

• King Of Records (80%)
• Roadshow (75%) [Flagged: <80%]

Dunraven Bowl ‘Grassroots’ Open Hunters’ Chase (19:35)

• Dalamoi (85%)
• Revels Hill (80%)

Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)

1. The Bluesman (16:30, Chepstow, 85%)
2. Ballybreeze (18:05, Chepstow, 85%)
3. Dalamoi (19:35, Chepstow, 85%)
4. Seeyouinmydreams (17:35, Chepstow, 80%)

Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown

Singles

1. The Bluesman (16:30, Chepstow)
2. Ballybreeze (18:05, Chepstow)
3. Dalamoi (19:35, Chepstow)
4. Seeyouinmydreams (17:35, Chepstow)

Doubles

1. The Bluesman + Ballybreeze
2. The Bluesman + Dalamoi
3. The Bluesman + Seeyouinmydreams
4. Ballybreeze + Dalamoi
5. Ballybreeze + Seeyouinmydreams
6. Dalamoi + Seeyouinmydreams

Trebles

1. The Bluesman + Ballybreeze + Dalamoi
2. The Bluesman + Ballybreeze + Seeyouinmydreams
3. The Bluesman + Dalamoi + Seeyouinmydreams
4. Ballybreeze + Dalamoi + Seeyouinmydreams

Four-Fold Accumulator

• The Bluesman + Ballybreeze + Dalamoi + Seeyouinmydreams

Key Insights

• Best Value Pick: Seeyouinmydreams (80%) –
• Highest Probability: The Bluesman (85%) –
• Alternative if Needed: Kdeux Saint Fray (80%) –