Bet Smart & Win — Chepstow Race Preview
Wednesday 05 November 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Dylan Johnston
- T: Sam Thomas
- Trip: 2m 3f 100y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Bumper form strong; SecEff suggests late kick; NP > IP value. EW playable (3pl 1/5).
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m 3f 100y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Reliable profile; proven on soft; form says solid top-3 chance.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m 3f 100y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Potential improver on hurdles debut; stable excels with newcomers.
Details
- J: Jack Tudor
- T: David Pipe
- Trip: 2m 3f 100y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Strong bumper form; staying style suits; sizeable NP > IP edge. EW (3pl 1/5).
Details
- J: Brendan Powell
- T: Joe Tizzard
- Trip: 2m 3f 100y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Hurdle winner; stays; fitness edge a plus.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m 3f 100y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Unproven on soft; pedigree okay; likely improver on experience.
Details
- J: Cameron Iles
- T: Tom Lacey
- Trip: 2m 7f 136y
- Trainer RTF%: 88%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110.2%
Analysis
Stays well; chase debut but schooling positive; NP > IP makes him the value. EW (4pl 1/5).
Details
- J: Dylan Johnston
- T: Rebecca Curtis
- Trip: 2m 7f 136y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110.2%
Analysis
Pointing base; marathon trip suits; fair price.
Details
- J: Ellis Collier
- T: Evan Williams
- Trip: 2m 7f 136y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110.2%
Analysis
Well treated on best; jumping the question.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m 16y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
G2 bumper 4th; class act; hurdles debut the only minor query.
Details
- J: Lorcan Williams
- T: Jeremy Scott
- Trip: 2m 16y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Point winner; fair bumper efforts; should finish off well.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m 16y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Smart bumper profile; debut over hurdles; must respect.
Details
- J: Tom Bellamy
- T: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls
- Trip: 2m 16y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Fit and battle-hardened; solid NP > IP edge.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White
- Trip: 2m 16y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Unbeaten bumper horse; big player despite absence.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m 16y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Strong bumper win; big engine; respected.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Rebecca Curtis
- Trip: 2m 16y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111.5%
Analysis
Course form; pointing experience; attractive mark for chase debut.
Details
- J: Tom Bellamy
- T: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls
- Trip: 2m 16y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111.5%
Analysis
Proven chaser; rightful fav; model value = Fair.
Details
- J: Paul O’Brien
- T: Henrietta Knight
- Trip: 2m 16y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111.5%
Analysis
Irish form interesting; potential to step forward over fences.
Details
- J: Kielan Woods
- T: Alex Hales
- Trip: 2m 3f 100y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112.1%
Analysis
Handicap debut; back up in trip ideal; strong SecEff late. EW (5pl 1/5).
Details
- J: Jamie Gambin
- T: Sarah Humphrey
- Trip: 2m 3f 100y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112.1%
Analysis
Recent winner; still fairly treated; obvious chance.
Details
- J: Conor Ring
- T: Evan Williams
- Trip: 2m 3f 100y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112.1%
Analysis
In-and-out; big price EW squeak with NP > IP.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m 16y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109.5%
Analysis
Costly purchase; connections excel in bumpers; market check.
Details
- J: Jonjo O’Neill Jr
- T: Jonjo & A J O’Neill
- Trip: 2m 16y
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109.5%
Analysis
Experience edge; the form pick; model value = Fair.
Details
- J: Jonathan Burke
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m 16y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109.5%
Analysis
Point winner; stamina a plus; interesting at a price.
Analysis
Perfect ground/trip, workable mark for handicap debut, strong late SecEff, clear NP > IP edge. Back with confidence.
Details
- Race: Spectra Group Handicap Hurdle (15:35)
- Trip: 2m 3f 100y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112.1%