Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
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Race Name: CAA Stellar Lily Agnes EBF Conditions Stakes
Race Distance: 5f15y
Racecourse: Chester
Time of Race: 1:30
First: Ali Shuffle
Age: 2
Weight: 8-13
Form: 21D (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Sam James
Trainer: K R Burke
Trainer RTF% Form: 48%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 79
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Miss Piggle
Age: 2
Weight: 8-13
Form: 1D (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Good
Jockey: Tom Marquand
Trainer: Hugo Palmer
Trainer RTF% Form: 62%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Ali Shuffle has shown strong recent form with a high Top Speed (79) and consistent performances. Miss Piggle is unexposed but has potential. The going should suit both.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Miss Piggle’s chances improve due to her breeding for cut.
Race Name: Ladbrokes Best Odds Guaranteed On Racing Handicap
Race Distance: 5f15y
Racecourse: Chester
Time of Race: 2:05
First: Redorange
Age: 3
Weight: 9-6
Form: 5321-3 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Trainer: Clive Cox
Trainer RTF% Form: 43%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 86
TS: 92
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Ruby’s Profit
Age: 3
Weight: 9-4
Form: 0443-1 (Improving)
Going: Good
Jockey: Kieran Shoemark
Trainer: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 84
TS: 80
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Redorange has the highest TS (92) and consistent form. Ruby’s Profit is improving but needs to step up.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is strong, Ruby’s Profit’s closing style could be advantageous.
Race Name: Weatherbys ePassport Cheshire Oaks
Race Distance: 1m3f75y
Racecourse: Chester
Time of Race: 2:35
First: Minnie Hauk
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 21- (Unexposed potential)
Going: Good
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Trainer: A P O’Brien
Trainer RTF% Form: 75%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 78
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: That’s Amore
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 1- (Debuted impressively)
Going: Good
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Trainer RTF% Form: 74%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 100
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Minnie Hauk is unexposed with a high ceiling. That’s Amore has a standout TS (100) but lacks experience.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, That’s Amore’s stamina may come into play.
Race Name: Boodles Chester Vase Stakes
Race Distance: 1m4f63y
Racecourse: Chester
Time of Race: 3:05
First: Lambourn
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 115-2 (Classy performer)
Going: Good
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Trainer: A P O’Brien
Trainer RTF% Form: 75%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 103
TS: 90
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Square d’Alboni
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 9111- (Progressive)
Going: Good
Jockey: Hector Crouch
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Trainer RTF% Form: 74%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 108
TS: 102
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Lambourn has the highest OR (103) and class. Square d’Alboni is progressive but may need further.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace collapses, Square d’Alboni’s stamina could be key.
Race Name: Love Federal Capital Handicap
Race Distance: 6f17y
Racecourse: Chester
Time of Race: 3:40
First: Bob Mali
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 1118-2 (Consistent)
Going: Good
Jockey: William Buick
Trainer: Charles Hills
Trainer RTF% Form: 47%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 89
TS: 95
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Hammer The Hammer
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 42-211 (Improving)
Going: Good
Jockey: Tom Eaves
Trainer: Kevin Ryan
Trainer RTF% Form: 55%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 88
TS: 66
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Bob Mali has the highest TS (95) and consistent form. Hammer The Hammer is improving but needs to confirm.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Hammer The Hammer’s form may improve.
Race Name: Heineken Maiden Stakes
Race Distance: 1m2f70y
Racecourse: Chester
Time of Race: 4:10
First: Marnier
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 3 (Promising debut)
Going: Good
Jockey: Robert Havlin
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Trainer RTF% Form: 68%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 75
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Sea Suite
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 4 (Unexposed)
Going: Good
Jockey: Jason Watson
Trainer: Charles Hills
Trainer RTF% Form: 47%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Marnier has a strong debut and top connections. Sea Suite is unexposed but needs to improve.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is slow, Sea Suite’s stamina may come into play.
Race Name: Horseradish Catering & Events Handicap
Race Distance: 7f1y
Racecourse: Chester
Time of Race: 4:45
First: Monsieur Fudge
Age: 4
Weight: 9-7
Form: /248-1 (Progressive)
Going: Good
Jockey: David Egan
Trainer: George Scott
Trainer RTF% Form: 76%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 86
TS: 83
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Thunder Blue
Age: 4
Weight: 9-9
Form: 13256- (Consistent)
Going: Good
Jockey: Saffie Osborne
Trainer: Jamie Osborne
Trainer RTF% Form: 33%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 88
TS: 85
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Monsieur Fudge is progressive with a high RTF%. Thunder Blue is consistent but needs to find more.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is strong, Thunder Blue’s stamina could be key.
Out of my analysis for Chester on the 07th of May 2025, this horse shows the best value for money based on Age, Weight, OR (Official Rating), TS (Top Speed), and RTF’s (Ran To Form):
Horse: Lambourn
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 115-2 (Classy performer)
OR: 103
TS: 90
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Form and Improvement: Lambourn has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making him a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The conditions on the day are expected to suit him, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.
In summary, Lambourn presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Chester – 07th May 2025
Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)
13:30 – CAA Stellar Lily Agnes EBF Conditions Stakes
- Ali Shuffle (85%)
- Social Exclusion (75%) [Flagged: <80%]
14:05 – Ladbrokes Best Odds Guaranteed On Racing Handicap
- Redorange (70%) [Flagged: <80%]
- Blinky (65%) [Flagged: <80%]
14:35 – Weatherbys ePassport Cheshire Oaks (Fillies’ Listed)
- Minnie Hauk (80%)
- That’s Amore (78%) [Flagged: <80%]
15:05 – Boodles Chester Vase Stakes (Group 3)
- Square D’Alboni (82%)
- Lambourn (80%)
15:40 – Love Federal Capital Handicap
- Hammer The Hammer (78%) [Flagged: <80%]
- Bob Mali (75%) [Flagged: <80%]
16:10 – Heineken Maiden Stakes
- Marnier (80%)
- Criminal (78%) [Flagged: <80%]
16:45 – Horseradish Catering & Events Handicap
- Boardman (80%)
- Thunder Blue (75%) [Flagged: <80%]
Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)
- Ali Shuffle (13:30, Chester, 85%)
- Minnie Hauk (14:35, Chester, 80%)
- Square D’Alboni (15:05, Chester, 82%)
- Marnier (16:10, Chester, 80%)
Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown
Singles
- Ali Shuffle (13:30, Chester)
- Minnie Hauk (14:35, Chester)
- Square D’Alboni (15:05, Chester)
- Marnier (16:10, Chester)
Doubles
- Ali Shuffle + Minnie Hauk
- Ali Shuffle + Square D’Alboni
- Ali Shuffle + Marnier
- Minnie Hauk + Square D’Alboni
- Minnie Hauk + Marnier
- Square D’Alboni + Marnier
Trebles
- Ali Shuffle + Minnie Hauk + Square D’Alboni
- Ali Shuffle + Minnie Hauk + Marnier
- Ali Shuffle + Square D’Alboni + Marnier
- Minnie Hauk + Square D’Alboni + Marnier
Four-Fold Accumulator
- Ali Shuffle + Minnie Hauk + Square D’Alboni + Marnier
Key Insights
- Best Value Pick: Boardman (80%) –
- Highest Probability: Ali Shuffle (85%) –
- Alternative if Needed: Lambourn (80%) –
