Before You Dive In – Read This First

Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.

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Race Name: CAA Stellar Handicap

Race Distance: 5f15y
Racecourse: Chester
Time of Race: 1:30
First: Fair Wind
Age: 5
Weight: 9-7
Form: 2141R-
Going: Good
Jockey: Pat Dobbs
Trainer: Owen Burrows
Trainer RTF% Form: 63%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 94
TS: 93
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Jer Batt
Age: 5
Weight: 9-5
Form: 2402-3
Going: Good
Jockey: Callum Rodriguez
Trainer: David & Nicola Barron
Trainer RTF% Form: 71%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 92
TS: 101
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Fair Wind has strong recent form and a high Top Speed rating, making him the standout choice. Jer Batt is consistent but may struggle to match Fair Wind’s speed.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Fair Wind’s stamina could give him an even greater edge.

Race Name: British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes

Race Distance: 5f110y
Racecourse: Chester
Time of Race: 2:05
First: Tricky Tel
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
Form: –
Going: Good
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Trainer: Hugo Palmer
Trainer RTF% Form: 39%
RTF’s: –
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Bring It On
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
Form: 2
Going: Good
Jockey: Pierre-Louis Jamin
Trainer: Tom Dascombe
Trainer RTF% Form: 27%
RTF’s: –
OR: –
TS: 58
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Tricky Tel is unraced but has a strong jockey-trainer combo. Bring It On has race experience but may lack the class to win.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground firms up, Tricky Tel’s breeding suggests he could improve further.

Race Name: Boodles Raindance Dee Stakes

Race Distance: 1m2f70y
Racecourse: Chester
Time of Race: 2:35
First: Mount Kilimanjaro
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 5312-3
Going: Good
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Trainer: A P O’Brien
Trainer RTF% Form: 77%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 109
TS: 107
Probability: First Horse Very High

Second: Hott Shott
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 151-24
Going: Good
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Trainer: Richard Hughes
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 98
TS: 93
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Mount Kilimanjaro is the class act here with a high OR and TS. Hott Shott is consistent but may not match the winner’s class.
Scenario Analysis: If the race becomes tactical, Mount Kilimanjaro’s stamina will be key.

Race Name: Ladbrokes Big-Value You Can Bet On Ormonde Stakes

Race Distance: 1m5f84y
Racecourse: Chester
Time of Race: 3:05
First: Illinois
Age: 4
Weight: 9-7
Form: 12221-
Going: Good
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Trainer: A P O’Brien
Trainer RTF% Form: 77%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 116
TS: 114
Probability: First Horse Very High

Second: Absurde
Age: 7
Weight: 9-2
Form: 7/415-
Going: Good
Jockey: William Buick
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 55%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 110
TS: 109
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Illinois is the standout with top-class form. Absurde is a solid stayer but may lack the pace to challenge.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Illinois’s class should still prevail.

Race Name: Louise Keegan Handicap

Race Distance: 7f127y
Racecourse: Chester
Time of Race: 3:40
First: El Burhan
Age: 3
Weight: 9-4
Form: 4113-
Going: Good
Jockey: Jim Crowley
Trainer: George Boughey
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 93
TS: 76
Probability: First Horse High

Second: God Of War
Age: 3
Weight: 9-4
Form: 4157-
Going: Good
Jockey: Neil Callan
Trainer: Tom Clover
Trainer RTF% Form: 64%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 93
TS: 93
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: El Burhan has consistent form and a strong jockey. God Of War has speed but may lack tactical versatility.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is strong, El Burhan’s stamina could prove decisive.

Race Name: Halliwell Jones Handicap

Race Distance: 1m2f70y
Racecourse: Chester
Time of Race: 4:10
First: Liberty Coach
Age: 4
Weight: 9-6
Form: 41121-
Going: Good
Jockey: Jason Hart
Trainer: John & Sean Quinn
Trainer RTF% Form: 33%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 87
TS: 83
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Box To Box
Age: 6
Weight: 9-5
Form: 4-0885
Going: Good
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Trainer: Hugo Palmer
Trainer RTF% Form: 39%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 86
TS: 95
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Liberty Coach is in great form and has a low weight. Box To Box is consistent but may struggle to match the winner’s pace.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Liberty Coach’s stamina could be a key factor.

Race Name: Oxford Natural Handicap

Race Distance: 1m4f63y
Racecourse: Chester
Time of Race: 4:45
First: Lady Vivian
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 5-21
Going: Good
Jockey: Hector Crouch
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Trainer RTF% Form: 61%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 80
TS: –
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Way Of Stars
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 243-3
Going: Good
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Trainer RTF% Form: 53%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 79
TS: 70
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Lady Vivian has strong form and a top trainer. Way Of Stars is consistent but may lack the class to win.
Scenario Analysis: If the race is tactical, Lady Vivian’s stamina could be decisive.

Best Value for Money Horse at Chester on the 08th of May 2025

Out of my analysis for Chester, this horse shows the best value for money based on Age, Weight, OR, TS, and RTF’s:

Horse: Liberty Coach
Age: 4
Weight: 9-6
Form: 41121- (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 87
TS: 83
RTF’s: Ran To Form

Form and Improvement: Liberty Coach has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making her a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The conditions on the day are expected to suit her, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.

In summary, Liberty Coach presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.

Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Chester – 08th May 2025

Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)

1:30 PM – CAA Stellar Handicap

Roman Dragon (Probability: 80%)
Dream Composer (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

2:35 PM – Boodles Raindance Dee Stakes

Calla Lagoon (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
Mount Kilimanjaro (Probability: 70%) [Flagged: <80%]

3:05 PM – Ladbrokes Ormonde Stakes

Illinois (Probability: 85%)
Absurde (Probability: 80%)

3:40 PM – Louise Keegan Handicap

El Burhan (Probability: 82%)
Sex On Fire (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]

4:10 PM – Halliwell Jones Handicap

Siempre Arturo (Probability: 70%) [Flagged: <80%]
High On Hope (Probability: 65%) [Flagged: <80%]

4:45 PM – Oxford Natural Handicap

Way Of Stars (Probability: 80%)
My Kinda Ghaiy (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)

Roman Dragon (1:30 PM, Chester, 80%)
Illinois (3:05 PM, Chester, 85%)
El Burhan (3:40 PM, Chester, 82%)
Way Of Stars (4:45 PM, Chester, 80%)

Note: All selections meet the ≥80% threshold.

Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown

Singles

Roman Dragon (1:30 PM, Chester)
Illinois (3:05 PM, Chester)
El Burhan (3:40 PM, Chester)
Way Of Stars (4:45 PM, Chester)

Doubles

Roman Dragon + Illinois
Roman Dragon + El Burhan
Roman Dragon + Way Of Stars
Illinois + El Burhan
Illinois + Way Of Stars
El Burhan + Way Of Stars

Trebles

Roman Dragon + Illinois + El Burhan
Roman Dragon + Illinois + Way Of Stars
Roman Dragon + El Burhan + Way Of Stars
Illinois + El Burhan + Way Of Stars

Four-Fold Accumulator

Roman Dragon + Illinois + El Burhan + Way Of Stars

Key Insights

Best Value Pick: Roman Dragon (80%) –
Highest Probability: Illinois (85%) –
Alternative if Needed: Calla Lagoon (78%) –