Bet Smart & Win — Cork Race Preview
Sunday 02 November 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
The goal is simple: Normalized Probability (our view of ‘true’ chance) should always beat the bookmaker’s Implied Probability. If it does — and the Overround (the bookie’s margin) is still reasonable — we play.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: (forecast) aligns with ~32% IP
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Point/bumper profile screams talent and maturity. NP > IP = value. Yard in form, handles yielding, looks a proper debut hurdler.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (forecast) align ~18% IP
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Power combo yard/jockey. Model says “fair” at current pricing. Should travel like a player deep into the race.
Details
- J: Daniel King
- T: Connor King
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (forecast) reflect ~10% IP
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Big each-way feel. Trainer flying. NP > IP so the model sees a mild edge at a likely double-figure price.
Details
- J: Phillip Enright
- T: Robert Tyner
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (forecast) back-calcs to ~37% IP
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Bumper win screams raw ability. NP comfortably ahead of IP keeps him Above Fair. Clear most-likely winner.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Typical Elliott/Kennedy profile: well found in market, and model agrees the price is fair. Big player.
Details
- J: Mark Walsh
- T: Robert Tyner
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Should be competitive for places. Stable form respectable. NP just above IP = fair play at each-way prices.
Details
- J: Philip Byrnes
- T: C Byrnes
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (forecast IP ~24%)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Rock-solid handicapper with recent seconds. NP > IP gives Above Fair. Very strong claims in current mood.
Details
- J: Sarah Kavanagh
- T: Edward Cawley
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Lenient mark, shaped like coming back to himself. Each-way with upside. Value sits in line with price = Fair.
Details
- J: Alex Harvey
- T: Patrick T Foley
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Much bigger price. Yard red-hot, so she’s not impossible to nick a place if the pace collapses.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: (forecast ~30% IP)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
High-class profile, figures say Above Fair. Handles trip, strong yard. Clear standard setter.
Details
- J: James Smith
- T: Ms Claire O’Connell
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 22%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Honest mare, keeps running her race. Model says price is basically fair; she’s in the frame on consistency alone.
Details
- J: Donagh Meyler
- T: Emmet Mullins
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Connections always demand respect. NP a hair over IP = acceptable value as an each-way alternative to the favourite.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 3m100y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: short — IP ~47%
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Class of the race. Proven at the trip, profile screams Above Fair. Most likely winner on the Cork card.
Details
- J: Donagh Meyler
- T: Emmet Mullins
- Trip: 3m100y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Progressive mare. Only one who looks capable of asking a serious question of the favourite.
Details
- J: Sean O’Keeffe
- T: Declan Queally
- Trip: 3m100y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Stays well and arrives in form. Honest type; most likely to grab a share of the places behind the top two.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: (forecast ~29% IP)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Arrives off a win. Connections flying. NP > IP keeps him in Above Fair territory = our pick.
Details
- J: Paul Townend
- T: W P Mullins
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
High ceiling, elite yard. Model calls him “fair”, so he’s no steal but absolutely a danger.
Details
- J: Ricky Doyle
- T: Eoin Griffin
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Unbeaten over fences and respected. NP ~ IP so value is more neutral, but he’s in this up to his neck.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Sean Joseph Allen
- Trip: 3m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 124%
- Odds: (forecast EW price)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Stays forever. Above Fair at likely double-digit odds. Serious each-way player in a marathon test.
Details
- J: Philip Byrnes
- T: C Byrnes
- Trip: 3m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (market leader)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Model confirms he’s a rightful market leader and fairly priced. Stamina assured, attitude reliable.
Details
- J: Anna McGuinness
- T: Robert Tyner
- Trip: 3m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (forecast EW)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
In-form veteran. Stays well and offers proper each-way value at a price. Model still sees him fairly.
Details
- J: Daniel King
- T: Michael William O’Meara
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: (forecast EW)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Course winner with Above Fair value. Ground/trip tick boxes. This is our strongest confidence play of the entire Cork card.
Details
- J: Keith Donoghue
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (market fav range)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Likely favourite. Model has him as Fair (price about right). Major player on ability.
Details
- J: Miss M O’Sullivan
- T: Emmet Mullins
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Ultra-consistent and keeps picking up cheques. Fair value profile and should be right there late.
Analysis
This is the strongest confidence line on the Cork card. Above Fair value, course winner, and conditions (2m4f, yielding, competitive field) line up perfectly. Trainer running well. This is the one we want on side.