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Updated – Cork 10/09/25 – Tap to Enter!

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Bet Smart & Win
Cork — Wed 10/09/25
Races: 7 (1–7)

How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge

At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.

How To Pick Winners

We only place bets when a race meets the following criteria:

  • Overround: Between 100–115% (Green)
  • Runners: Between 8–12
  • Value: Above Fair (Green)
  • Class: 5, 4, 3
  • Jockey: Top 20 (strict whitelist)
  • NP: 27% or Above
  • IP: Below the NP (Normalised Probability)
  • Best days to bet: Wed, Thu, Fri, Sat (statistically strongest)

Cork 10/09/25 — NAP

NAP
Overround: 115% Race: 18:40 (R6) Distance: 1m Runners: 19 Class: 4

#8 Hellorhighwater (Form: 22)

J: Gary Carroll NP: 28% IP: 26%
Details
Trainer: Gavin Cromwell Trainer RTF%: 40 Odds: 2.5 Wt: 9-8 AF
Why this is the NAP
  • Two tight seconds set the standard; drop into maiden depth looks optimal.
  • Yielding to soft suits the late build; field lacks proven closers.
  • NP above IP within a 115% book shows retained edge despite market support.
  • Stable momentum and draw workable for a stalk-and-pounce ride.
1

16:10 Cork — Irish EBF Auction Series Race (2yo) — 6f

Overround: 112% Runners: 14 Going: Yielding to soft in places Class: 4

#6 Soy El Fuego (Form: 15)

J: Colin Keane NP: 24% IP: 25%
Details
Trainer: G M Lyons Trainer RTF%: 54 Odds: 4.0 Wt: 9-1 F
Why we like this
  • Curragh debut strong; 5f run a forgive; step back to 6f ideal.
  • Top rider for centre draw; should track pace and finish.
  • Fair at current tissue with upside if settling improves.

#5 L L Koulsty (Form: 20)

J: Ronan Whelan NP: 20% IP: 22%
Details
Trainer: John S O’Donoghue Trainer RTF%: 69 Odds: 5.0 Wt: 9-1 F
Why we like this
  • Solid ratings for the grade; profile screams 6f.
  • Ground no issue; should hold position and keep on.
  • Fair; becomes AF if 11/2+ appears.

#1 Listentodwindblow (Form: —)

J: Dylan Browne McMonagle NP: 18% IP: 20%
Details
Trainer: Joseph P O’Brien Trainer RTF%: 56 Odds: 5.0 Wt: 9-5 F
Why we like this
  • Well-bred newcomer from powerful yard; market vibes positive.
  • Track straightforward enough for debut impact.
  • Fair vs tissue; AF possible on drift.
2

16:40 Cork — Coolmore Stud Gleneagles Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden (2yo) — 6f

Overround: 111% Runners: 10 Going: Yielding to soft in places Class: 3

#7 Strike Zone (Form: 3)

J: Colin Keane NP: 32% IP: 32%
Details
Trainer: G M Lyons Trainer RTF%: 54 Odds: 2.75 Wt: 9-5 F
Why we like this
  • Strong debut with scope to step forward at 6f.
  • Track favours uncomplicated types from handy slots.
  • Fair around 11/4–5/2; AF if 3.0+

#3 Charles Fort (Form: 234)

J: Jack Cleary (5) NP: 30% IP: 29%
Details
Trainer: A P O’Brien Trainer RTF%: 56 Odds: 2.9 Wt: 9-5 AF
Why we like this
  • Hard-knocking maiden form; consistency a plus.
  • NP edges IP at current quotes; slight AF.
  • SecEff good sitting just off the pace.

#10 Unionville (Form: 04)

J: Shane Foley NP: 27% IP: 21%
Details
Trainer: Mrs John Harrington Trainer RTF%: 48 Odds: 5.5 Wt: 9-5 AF
Why we like this
  • Second start step-up was encouraging; 6f on yielding looks perfect.
  • NP ≥ 27 and IP below NP inside a 111% book ticks every AF box.
  • Jockey on whitelist; Class 3; field size 10 — fully qualifies.
3

17:10 Cork — William Hill Each Way Extra Handicap (3yo+) — 6f

Overround: 126% Runners: 19 Going: Yielding to soft in places Class: 4

#10 Tommy McJohn (Form: 84-307)

J: Gary Carroll NP: 14% IP: 11%
Details
Trainer: Gavin Cromwell Trainer RTF%: 40 Odds: 9.0 Wt: 9-8 AF
Why we like this
  • Shape to improve back to 6f with some cut.
  • NP over IP despite inflated book — small AF edge.
  • SecEff improves with a strong middle tempo.

#9 Dontspoilasale (Form: 736731)

J: Dylan O’Connor (7) NP: 13% IP: 12%
Details
Trainer: Denis Gerard Hogan Trainer RTF%: 36 Odds: 8.0 Wt: 9-8 F
Why we like this
  • Reliable recent outputs; can repeat the run.
  • Fair in a compressed market; claims for the frame.
  • Handles ease; run style adaptable.

#7 Colter Bay (Form: 591)

J: Adam Browne-Souza (7) NP: 12% IP: 14%
Details
Trainer: W P Browne Trainer RTF%: 50 Odds: 7.0 Wt: 9-10 F
Why we like this
  • Upward curve; claimer offsets rise.
  • Fair vs current quotes; place solid.
  • Should sit handy and keep on.
4

17:40 Cork — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden (2yo) — 7f

Overround: 112% Runners: 9 Going: Yielding to soft in places Class: 3

#7 Josh’s Joy (Form: 32)

J: Gavin Ryan NP: 34% IP: 35%
Details
Trainer: Donnacha A O’Brien Trainer RTF%: 50 Odds: 2.5 Wt: 9-2 F
Why we like this
  • Sets the standard; minimal improvement needed.
  • 7f on yielding ideal for sustained run.
  • Fair at current price; AF if 2.6+

#6 Black Caviar Gold (Form: 34)

J: W J Lee NP: 29% IP: 22%
Details
Trainer: P Twomey Trainer RTF%: 63 Odds: 4.5 Wt: 9-2 AF
Why we like this
  • Powerful trainer-jockey axis; progressive figure at 7f.
  • NP ≥ 27 with IP below; within 112% book.
  • Runners 9; Class 3; whitelist jockey — fully qualifies.

#8 Nautic Star (Form: 5)

J: Shane Foley NP: 14% IP: 15%
Details
Trainer: Mrs John Harrington Trainer RTF%: 48 Odds: 6.0 Wt: 9-2 F
Why we like this
  • Second start improvement likely; pedigree supports 7f.
  • Fair price; could drift to AF.
  • Late profile attractive if pace honest.
5

18:10 Cork — Play Final One Standing By William Hill H’cap (0–60) — 7f

Overround: 124% Runners: 21 Going: Yielding Class: 6

#2 Distillate (Form: 675431)

J: Adam Caffrey NP: 12% IP: 17%
Details
Trainer: Adrian McGuinness Trainer RTF%: 48 Odds: 6.0 Wt: 10-0 BF
Why we like this
  • Won a division last year; recent win suggests form retained.
  • Big-field overround caps value; needs price lift for AF.
  • Run style versatile for 7f at Cork.

#15 Not Simple (Form: 9982)

J: Luke McAteer NP: 11% IP: 12%
Details
Trainer: James M Barrett Trainer RTF%: 49 Odds: 7.0 Wt: 9-3 F
Why we like this
  • Latest run a step forward; unexposed at 7f.
  • Fair at present; AF if 8.0–9.0 emerges.
  • Positive late profile with cover.

#11 Von Krolock (Form: -00420)

J: Ronan Whelan NP: 8% IP: 11%
Details
Trainer: Timothy Doyle Trainer RTF%: 33 Odds: 12.0 Wt: 9-7 F
Why we like this
  • Capable at level; should get run of race if pace collapses.
  • Fair price signals place claims.
  • Needs rhythm and lane; draw dependent.
6

18:40 Cork — William Hill Gold Weekend Starts 8am Friday Maiden (3yo+) — 1m

Overround: 115% Runners: 19 Going: Yielding Class: 4

#8 Hellorhighwater (Form: 22)

J: Gary Carroll NP: 28% IP: 26%
Details
Trainer: Gavin Cromwell Trainer RTF%: 40 Odds: 2.5 Wt: 9-8 AF
Why we like this
  • Clear form standard; optimal conditions at 1m.
  • NP above IP keeps him value-positive at head of market.
  • SecEff: sustained late splits; versatile tactically.

#12 Peig Sayers (Form: 40)

J: Adam Caffrey NP: 27% IP: 20%
Details
Trainer: Miss Hilary McLoughlin Trainer RTF%: 65 Odds: 6.0 Wt: 9-8 AF
Why we like this
  • Profile hints at sizeable improvement up to 1m with ease.
  • NP 27 with IP below in a 115% book; field size 19 prevents full qualification.
  • Strong late energy if early pace overcooks; watch market.

#18 Tina’s Charm (Form: 762)

J: Chris Hayes NP: 18% IP: 17%
Details
Trainer: D K Weld Trainer RTF%: 56 Odds: 7.5 Wt: 9-3 F
Why we like this
  • Progressive; top pilot booked.
  • Fair value; AF on any drift.
  • Finishing kick should play at Cork.
7

19:10 Cork — Download The William Hill App Today Handicap (3yo+) — 1m

Overround: 137% Runners: 18 Going: Soft Class: 4

#6 Loingseoir (Form: 536035)

J: Jimmy Dalton (10) NP: 17% IP: 14%
Details
Trainer: M C Grassick Trainer RTF%: 20 Odds: 12.0 Wt: 9-9 AF
Why we like this
  • Well treated and gets ground; 10lb claim a big help.
  • NP over IP despite a heavy book; Above Fair place-win.
  • Set up could favour closers; late run expected.

#4 Port Louis (Form: 107580)

J: Colin Keane NP: 15% IP: 13%
Details
Trainer: Noel Meade Trainer RTF%: 41 Odds: 12.0 Wt: 9-12 AF
Why we like this
  • Classy back-form; top jockey boosts chance.
  • AF margin small but real at current quotes.
  • Needs a clean run; mid-div slot ideal.

#3 Toy Soldier (Form: 767182)

J: Julian Pietropaolo (7) NP: 13% IP: 12%
Details
Trainer: Maurice Andrew Ahern Trainer RTF%: 48 Odds: 13.0 Wt: 9-13 F
Why we like this
  • Consistent; allowance helps finishing effort.
  • Fair; edges AF on any drift.
  • Should be running on late.
Probability & Value — Read This

Legend — What the Colours Mean

  • Above Fair (AF)

    Value positive

    Our target condition when NP > IP.

  • Fair (F)

    Neutral value

    Priced about right; marginal edge.

  • Below Fair (BF)

    Value negative

    Overbet relative to model.

  • Overround — Green

    100–115%

    Our qualifying book range.

  • Overround — Red

    >115%

    Book too fat; approach cautiously.

  • Implied Prob.

    From odds

    Raw probability from bookmaker prices.

  • Normalized Prob.

    Margin-free

    Re-scales market to 100% total.

  • Class

    Race grade

    Target Classes: 5, 4, 3.

  • Runners

    Field size

    We want 8–12 to qualify.

  • Jockey

    Whitelist

    Only specific top riders qualify.

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