Bet Smart & Win — Curragh Race Preview
Sunday 02 November 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Wayne Hassett
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Highest Normalized Probability and graded Above Fair. Sets the standard.
Details
- J: Liam Keniry
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Big stable; profile screams improvement on second start.
Details
- J: Jack Cleary
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Stablemate threat; another improver with Above Fair profile.
Details
- J: W J Lee
- T: W McCreery
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Heavy-ground specialist off a recent win; Above Fair on this surface.
Details
- J: Jimmy Dalton
- T: Andrew Slattery
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Handles conditions; consistent enough to hit the places at value.
Details
- J: Robert Whearty
- T: T G McCourt
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Profiles well on deep ground; another Above Fair each-way angle.
Details
- J: Ronan Whelan
- T: Mark Fahey
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Strongest recent claims; Above Fair on percentages and ground-biased profile.
Details
- J: Chris Hayes
- T: D K Weld
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Unexposed Weld runner; big danger if improving second time up.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: Ross O’Sullivan
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Course-and-distance angle; deserves respect at bigger odds.
Details
- J: Seamie Heffernan
- T: John J Nallen
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Edges a messy, high-overround race; Above Fair and handles the mud.
Details
- J: Alan Persse
- T: Patrick J Flynn
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 14%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Honest and ground-versatile; profiles as an each-way frame player.
Details
- J: Robert Whearty
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Stable in form; solid each-way at what should be workable odds.
Details
- J: Donagh O’Connor
- T: Ross O’Sullivan
- Trip: 2m71y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Huge run in the Irish Cesarewitch; Above Fair and stays all day on this ground.
Details
- J: Wayne Hassett
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 2m71y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Stays strongly and represents top connections; major player.
Details
- J: W J Lee
- T: W McCreery
- Trip: 2m71y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Consistent stayer who keeps giving; warrants respect for the frame.
Details
- J: Gary Halpin
- T: John Andrew Kinsella
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Above Fair value and expected to reverse form with Dark Viper.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: Mrs John Harrington
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Danger to all; handles the ground and keeps finding late.
Details
- J: Megan Telford-Kelly
- T: W McCreery
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Going the right way; stable in good order. Live outsider.
Details
- J: Chris Hayes
- T: D K Weld
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Unexposed filly stepping up in trip; Above Fair and looks well placed.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: Mrs John Harrington
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Solid market leader; sets the standard but maybe short enough in the betting.
Details
- J: Jack Cleary
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Big yard’s improver; looks set to step forward for the trip.
Details
- J: Donagh O’Connor
- T: Ross O’Sullivan
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Classy bumper mare dropping into a maiden; Above Fair and should relish conditions.
Details
- J: Robert Whearty
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Solid form base; one of the more reliable profiles in a huge field.
Details
- J: W J Lee
- T: P Twomey
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Unexposed from a very shrewd yard; serious shortlist type on debut profile.
Analysis
Strongest recent form, optimal heavy-ground profile, controllable field size (6), and Above Fair value. This is the percentage play. Back with confidence.