Bet Smart & Win — Curragh Race Preview
Tuesday 21 October 2025 • Heavy • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Dylan Browne McMonagle
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Forecast favourite and form pick; powerful yard/jockey combo. Above Fair on our tissue.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: Mrs John Harrington
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Second in the betting; experience angle plays well on heavy.
Details
- J: Wayne Lordan
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Strong connections; open to plenty of improvement from debut.