How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20%, but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5.
Nap of the Meeting – Curragh 23/08/25
#9 Fortuna Vera (Form: 741326)
Excusable Galway run; strong prior Curragh form over trip. Above Fair value and conditions optimal.
Confidence Factors
Value Above Fair; proven 12f; sectional profile ≥0.88; trainer/jockey synergy; ground okay.
Coolmore Stud Little Big Bear Irish EBF Maiden (2yo) (1:42)
#2 Circle Of Life (Form: — )
National Stakes entry signals quality; however, current price implies a higher chance than our normalized model.
#5 Nil Bua Gan Dua (Form: — )
Big yard debutant landing in the AF zone; profile suggests stamina for 7f and a strong place angle.
#3 Daring Heart (Form: — )
Well-regarded connections and value tick; can run on late into the frame in a deep maiden.
Analysis
Circle Of Life sets the standard on paper but lacks value; Nil Bua Gan Dua preferred each-way, with Daring Heart next best.
Sheehy Motors Volkswagen Maiden (3yo+) (2:17)
#10 Washington Street (Form: -72229)
Form choice but price slightly ahead of true chance; remains a key runner, just short on value.
#8 Men Of Honour (Form: 0-753)
Improving with racing; sits in the model’s value band and appeals as a solid EW play.
#14 Glory To Be (Form: 423)
Consistent and in range on value; strong place chance if pace collapses late.
Analysis
Washington Street remains the form pick but at a Below Fair price; Men Of Honour is the recommended each-way with Glory To Be next.
Neville O’Byrne Memorial Irish EBF Fillies & Mares Handicap (2:52)
#9 Fortuna Vera (Form: 741326)
Model top; strong course evidence and value premium. Aligns with Nap criteria.
#5 Beauparc (Form: -10175)
Well-handicapped on best; retains an edge for the frame with win upside if pace suits.
#1 Shaool (Form: 234133)
Honest and consistent; marginal value maintained and a strong top-3 projection.
Analysis
Fortuna Vera is a confident selection; Beauparc offers each-way value, with Shaool next best.
Coolmore Stud Wootton Bassett Tom Cooper Irish EBF Futurity Stakes (G2) (3:27)
#3 Constitution River (Form: 21)
Likely winner on ability; however, odds-on compresses value beneath our fair line.
#1 A Boy Named Susie (Form: 1)
Strong debut winner; best value against the favourite with scope to progress.
#4 Geryon (Form: 1)
Talented colt; price roughly fair. Solid to make the frame.
Analysis
Constitution River is the most likely winner; value leans to A Boy Named Susie each-way, with Geryon respected.
Alpha Centauri Debutante Stakes (G2) (Fillies) (4:02)
#3 Composing (Form: 511)
Progressive and strong claims; slightly under fair price on current market.
#6 Suzie Songs (Form: 11)
Group 3 winner with upside; price fractionally shorter than our line.
#1 Balantina (Form: 4132)
Reliable progression and within AF band; sound value to hit the frame, small win chance.
Analysis
Composing shades it on form; value tilts toward Balantina EW, with Suzie Songs firmly in the picture.
Kwiff: Home Of The Supercharge Handicap (3yo+) (4:37)
#7 Spring Dance (Form: 341)
Unexposed improver; current quotes a shade short of our fair rating for a win-only stake.
#5 Angelo Pio (Form: 843115)
Profile peaking; sits in value zone and handles trip well. EW advised.
#1 Slurricane (Form: 15843-)
Staying profile and price create a small edge; credible for the places at double-figures.
Analysis
Spring Dance rates highly but lacks value; Angelo Pio is the EW call, with Slurricane a live placer.
Donohue Marquees Maiden (3yo+) (5:10)
#7 Slaney Drive (Form: 32)
Clear form pick but slightly under fair at current quotes; still most likely winner.
#6 Saratoga (Form: 3-)
Big reputation; market likely tight on return. Contender, but value marginally negative.
#9 Etawa (Form: 334)
Honest and close to peaking; AF tag justifies EW with scope to upset the front pair.
Analysis
Slaney Drive is most likely; value play is Etawa EW, with Saratoga respected if fit.
Kwiff: Proud Sponsors Of The Supercharge Series Handicap (3yo+) (5:40)
#10 Beano Power (Form: 217234)
Reliable sprinter tracking the pace; AF tag with cheekpieces angle can unlock a finishing edge.
#4 Viamonte (Form: 535233)
Consistent late closer; numbers remain in our green zone, profiles well for the frame.
#2 Nezeeh (Form: 080241)
Recent winner; price roughly efficient for chances. Still a fair top-3 contender.
Analysis
Beano Power looks a value EW against the field; Viamonte consistent for places; Nezeeh holds fair claims.
Notes
Top Jockey = Included in our curated list of leading riders.
Overround colour guide: 100–115% (green, value zone) 116–117% (orange, marginal) 118%+ (red, avoid).
Implied Probability (IP) derives from bookmaker prices; Normalized Probability (NP) re-scales the book to 100% (removing margin). Ideally, NP > IP to confirm value.
Value Key: AF Above Fair F Fair BF Below Fair