How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20%, but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5.
Nap of the Meeting – Curragh 30/08/25
#5 Mission Central (Form: 21)
C&D winner with progressive profile; NP>IP confirms value and a strong run-to-win scenario in a truly-run Group 3.
1:45 Curragh – John Ormonde Wexford Sand Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden (2yo) (1m, 8 runners)
#3 Hawk Mountain (Form: 21)
Ballydoyle colt with strong track effort; prominent ride suits the Curragh mile and consolidates leading claims.
#5 Perisher (Form: 28)
Second choice on market; solid figures but current quotes outrun model—still a prime contender.
#7 Star Chamber (Form: 106)
Stable flying and RPRs competitive; place player if pace collapses late.
Analysis
Hawk Mountain edges a tight maiden on track promise; Perisher the main threat; Star Chamber shortlisted for places.
2:20 Curragh – Newtownanner Stud Irish EBF Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (2yo) (1m, 7 runners)
#4 Moments Of Joy (Form: 70-13)
Form depth and stamina profile point to improvement at 1m; model upgrades to Above Fair.
#7 Sugar Island (Form: 41-1)
Likely market leader with strong upside; valuation sits below Fair at current odds but remains a key player.
#5 Queen Of Hawaii (Form: 44-61)
Latest step forward puts her in the mix; fair value with place claims if pace is honest.
Analysis
Moments Of Joy preferred on form depth; Sugar Island rates a danger; Queen Of Hawaii has place potential.
2:52 Curragh – Heider Family Stables Round Tower Stakes (Group 3) (2yo) (6f, 11 runners)
#5 Mission Central (Form: 21)
C&D winning profile with top-end figures; clear Above Fair and the one to beat.
#10 Ipanema Queen (Form: 14-1021)
Improver with C&D credentials; profile and price combine for a strong value edge.
#1 Chicago Call (Form: 30-414)
Honest yard form and pace setup appeal; fair value with place upside.
Analysis
Mission Central gets the vote on progression; Ipanema Queen the danger; Chicago Call completes the three.
3:27 Curragh – Snow Fairy Fillies Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) (3yo+) (1m1f, 8 runners)
#6 Red Letter (Form: 45-14-721)
Rapidly progressive and suited by 9f; small value deficit but still the percentage call.
#3 Barnavara (Form: 66-3-7311)
In peak form and should stay; model lifts NP well above price, making her a value challenger.
#7 Sand Gazelle (Form: 1-4301)
Pattern-level ability with a finish that fits a controlled pace; fair value for the frame.
Analysis
Red Letter gets a narrow vote; Barnavara offers a value angle; Sand Gazelle respected.
4:02 Curragh – Kildare House Hotel Nursery Handicap (2yo) (7f, 8 runners)
#5 Jordi Bear (Form: 43-460)
Gelded and potentially well-treated versus maiden form; standout NP vs price.
#1 Which Wolf Wins (Form: 26-09-217)
Top weight but consistent; value a shade below fair at current odds.
#4 Invincible Will (Form: 8-60326)
Reliable type with late kick; market a touch short but retains place claims.
Analysis
Jordi Bear rates the value play; Which Wolf Wins solid danger; Invincible Will can nick minor money.
4:37 Curragh – Paddy Power Supporting Cancer Trials Ireland Irish Cambridgeshire (Premier Handicap) (1m, 15 runners)
#8 State Actor (Form: 51-20-036)
C&D player with strong late sectionals; handicapped to strike and priced with a value edge.
#7 Bear Profit (Form: 32-281232)
Ultra-consistent in big fields; mark workable and price retains a small edge.
#13 Pink Oxalis (Form: 30-32114014)
Better than last run; sound surface a plus and price offers place-value.
Analysis
State Actor gets the nod; Bear Profit a solid each-way; Pink Oxalis completes the shortlist.
5:12 Curragh – Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Apprentice Handicap (3yo+) (6f, 25 runners)
#23 Undefeatable (Form: 7-3601)
Lightly raced winner with franked form; mid-pack pounce fits race shape and price remains appealing.
#3 Carrigans Grove (Form: 14-221322)
Rock-solid placer but slightly under value at current quotes; still highly likely to contend.
#10 Amicitia (Form: 1-5-64)
Unexposed 3yo with upside; fair price to grab late place if pace burns out.
Analysis
Undefeatable edges a wide-open sprint; Carrigans Grove very solid; Amicitia has upside at the weights.
5:47 Curragh – Pat Smullen Cancer Trials Ireland Charity Race Supported By Ballylinch Stud (4yo+) (1m4f, 21 runners)
#2 Mordor (Form: 1-3102)
Clear form standard; slightly short in the market but remains the most likely winner on balance.
#6 Mo Ghille Mar (Form: 8-506105)
Trip ideal and recent win strong; price a touch short but win/place credentials are solid.
#19 Sacred Oath (Form: 8-1449)
Capable performer stretching out; model finds a small value edge for a placing at likely odds.
Analysis
Mordor marginally preferred; Mo Ghille Mar the main danger; Sacred Oath can hit the frame.
Notes
Top Jockey = Included in our curated list of leading riders.
Overround colour guide: 100%–115% 116%–117% 118%+ ≤99%
Implied Probability (IP) derives from bookmaker prices; Normalized Probability (NP) re-scales the book to 100% (removing margin). Ideally, NP > IP to confirm value.
Value Key: AF Above Fair F Fair BF Below Fair