Bet Smart & Win — Del Mar Breeders’ Cup Day
Saturday 01 November 2025 • Del Mar • All Grade 1 Races • NP vs IP Value View
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the best three value-adjusted runners in each Breeders’ Cup race, ranked by Normalized Probability (NP). We display Implied Probability (IP) so you can see the margin the books are building into these deep fields.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities — even in Breeders’ Cup Grade 1s. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Christophe Soumillon
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 1m (Turf)
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Clear form standout but trading under fair; IP above NP — treat as short.
Details
- J: David Egan
- T: Wesley A Ward
- Trip: 1m (Turf)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Better value profile than the fav; NP comfortably above IP.
Details
- J: Flavien Prat
- T: Riley Mott
- Trip: 1m (Turf)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Live outsider; NP>IP tells you the market may be underestimating him.
Details
- J: Juan J Hernandez
- T: Richard Baltas
- Trip: 7f (Dirt)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Rightful fav but trading hotter than our fair line; top win chance.
Details
- J: Luis Saez
- T: Bob Baffert
- Trip: 7f (Dirt)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Stable power makes him a danger — NP and IP tight, so little edge.
Details
- J: Jose L Ortiz
- T: Bob Baffert
- Trip: 7f (Dirt)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Third pick but the value angle; NP slightly ahead of IP.
Details
- J: Antonio Fresu
- T: Philip D’Amato
- Trip: 5f (Turf)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Smart 5f horse; model marginally prefers him; NP>IP.
Details
- J: John R Velazquez
- T: Richard Baltas
- Trip: 5f (Turf)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Strong place claims; value acceptable.
Details
- J: Irad Ortiz Jr
- T: Jose Francisco D’Angelo
- Trip: 5f (Turf)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Price suggesting outsider; NP signals some hidden value.
Details
- J: Irad Ortiz Jr
- T: Jose Francisco D’Angelo
- Trip: 6f (Dirt)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Narrow fav on the books; model says small negative edge.
Details
- J: Juan J Hernandez
- T: Bob Baffert
- Trip: 6f (Dirt)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Main player from local powerhouse; slight market overbet.
Details
- J: Mike E Smith
- T: Richard E Mandella
- Trip: 6f (Dirt)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Honest filly; probabilities aligned so bet only at bigger prices.
Details
- J: Juan J Hernandez
- T: Bob Baffert
- Trip: 1m1f (Dirt)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Deserving market leader but a shade too short on our line.
Details
- J: Jose L Ortiz
- T: Mark Casse
- Trip: 1m1f (Dirt)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Ultra-consistent; IP just edges NP so wait for a drift.
Details
- J: Flavien Prat
- T: Brendan P Walsh
- Trip: 1m1f (Dirt)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Value angle; NP clearly ahead of IP — our preferred each-way.
Details
- J: Christophe Soumillon
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 1m4f (Turf)
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Very strong fav; money side clearly above our fair line.
Details
- J: William Buick
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 1m4f (Turf)
- Trainer RTF%: 82%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Proven G1 performer; small market overbet but must be on tickets.
Details
- J: Umberto Rispoli
- T: Philip D’Amato
- Trip: 1m4f (Turf)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Rank outsider but NP>IP; for big exotics only.
Details
- J: John R Velazquez
- T: Todd Pletcher
- Trip: 1m2f (Dirt)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
Joint top on the boards; currently under our fair line — caution.
Details
- J: Flavien Prat
- T: Chad C Brown
- Trip: 1m2f (Dirt)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
Very close to Fierceness on true ability; price just a touch warm.
Details
- J: Jose L Ortiz
- T: Michael McCarthy
- Trip: 1m2f (Dirt)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
Value runner in a wide-open Classic; NP just ahead of IP — our win/place play.
Details
- J: William Buick
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 1m (Turf)
- Trainer RTF%: 82%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Clear market leader; current quote is shorter than our NP.
Details
- J: John R Velazquez
- T: Michael McCarthy
- Trip: 1m (Turf)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Course specialist; NP holds up — playable at current margin.
Details
- J: Irad Ortiz Jr
- T: William Walden
- Trip: 1m (Turf)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Interesting price-point runner; NP>IP so the model likes him.
Details
- J: Flavien Prat
- T: Bob Baffert
- Trip: 1m (Dirt)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
High-talent horse but underpriced; we’d need a bigger number.
Details
- J: Joel Rosario
- T: John W Sadler
- Trip: 1m (Dirt)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Last year’s winner; price just a touch too short today.
Details
- J: Luis Saez
- T: Bob Baffert
- Trip: 1m (Dirt)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Stablemate with place claims; IP slightly ahead so wait for market move.
Details
- J: William Buick
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 1m3f (Turf)
- Trainer RTF%: 82%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
2024 hard-luck story; NP>IP; trainer/jockey red hot — our nap.
Details
- J: Oisin Murphy
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 1m3f (Turf)
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Co-fav on our numbers; NP>IP gives her a small edge too.
Details
- J: Mickael Barzalona
- T: F-H Graffard
- Trip: 1m3f (Turf)
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
French raider with the right profile; NP confirms she’s not far off the top two.
Analysis
Strong value assessment with NP (14%) exceeding IP (11%), top Appleby/Buick combo, and a live Breeders’ Cup profile off a luckless 2024 run. This is the model’s clearest aligner.
Details
- Race: Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1)
- Trip: 1m3f (Turf)
- Trainer RTF%: 82%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%