Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
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Race Name: Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap
Race Distance: 7f213y
Racecourse: Doncaster
Time of Race: 5:10
First: Take A Breath
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 435- (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Cieren Fallon
Trainer: William Haggas
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 73
TS: 66
Probability: First Horse High
Second: It’sneverjustone
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: U543-2 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: William Pyle
Trainer: David Loughnane
Trainer RTF% Form: 55%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 73
TS: 52
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Take A Breath has strong recent form and a high RPR (84), suggesting he is well-suited to this distance. It’sneverjustone has shown improvement and could challenge if the pace is strong.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Shimaleyah (TS 60) could outperform expectations.
Race Name: Grace And Dotty Maiden Stakes
Race Distance: 1m2f43y
Racecourse: Doncaster
Time of Race: 5:45
First: Mister Rizz
Age: 3
Weight: 9-1
Form: 2 (Strong debut)
Going: Good
Jockey: George Downing
Trainer: Ed Walker
Trainer RTF% Form: 52%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Archivist
Age: 3
Weight: 9-1
Form: 4222-2 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Cieren Fallon
Trainer: William Haggas
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 86
TS: 99
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Mister Rizz has the highest RPR (106) and is expected to improve further. Archivist is consistent but may lack the finishing speed.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground firms up, Ritaan (unexposed) could surprise.
Race Name: Solar Xpress Maiden Stakes
Race Distance: 7f6y
Racecourse: Doncaster
Time of Race: 6:20
First: Nakeeb
Age: 3
Weight: 9-4
Form: 3-2 (Progressive)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Sam Hitchcott
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Trainer RTF% Form: 40%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 75
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Blue Lancero
Age: 3
Weight: 9-4
Form: – (Unexposed)
Going: Good
Jockey: Thomas Greatrex
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Trainer RTF% Form: 40%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Nakeeb has the highest TS (75) and is expected to handle the conditions well. Blue Lancero is an unknown quantity but could place.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Competizione (TS 56) may improve.
Race Name: Summer Saturday Series At Doncaster Racecourse Handicap
Race Distance: 6f2y
Racecourse: Doncaster
Time of Race: 6:50
First: Danzart
Age: 7
Weight: 9-7
Form: 320-61 (Strong recent run)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Zak Wheatley
Trainer: Stella Barclay
Trainer RTF% Form: 57%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 66
TS: 65
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Captain Vallo
Age: 7
Weight: 9-0
Form: 744524 (Consistent)
Going: Good
Jockey: Lewis Edmunds
Trainer: Phillip Makin
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 59
TS: 69
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Danzart has the highest RPR (80) and is in good form. Captain Vallo is consistent but may struggle with the weight.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is slow, One More Dream (RPR 83) could challenge.
Race Name: Download The At The Races App Handicap
Race Distance: 6f2y
Racecourse: Doncaster
Time of Race: 7:20
First: Rogue Dancer
Age: 3
Weight: 9-11
Form: 0741-1 (Improving)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Benoit De La Sayette
Trainer: Jack Jones
Trainer RTF% Form: 62%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 74
TS: 62
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Chuti Manika
Age: 3
Weight: 9-10
Form: 3633-2 (Consistent)
Going: Good
Jockey: Oliver Stammers
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Trainer RTF% Form: 58%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 73
TS: 76
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Rogue Dancer is the form horse, while Chuti Manika has the higher TS (76) and could push hard.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Trust Sergei (RPR 81) may surprise.
Race Name: Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap
Race Distance: 1m3f197y
Racecourse: Doncaster
Time of Race: 7:54
First: Bas Bleu
Age: 4
Weight: 9-3
Form: 3231-3 (Strong recent form)
Going: Good
Jockey: George Downing
Trainer: Ed Walker
Trainer RTF% Form: 52%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 76
TS: 82
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Melek Alreeh
Age: 6
Weight: 9-6
Form: 18681- (Progressive)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Sean D Bowen
Trainer: David Simcock
Trainer RTF% Form: 27%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 79
TS: 63
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Bas Bleu has the highest TS (82) and is in excellent form. Melek Alreeh is consistent but may lack the class.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is strong, Ludo’s Landing (RPR 92) could place.
Race Name: attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap
Race Distance: 1m2f43y
Racecourse: Doncaster
Time of Race: 8:24
First: Calibos
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 350-83 (Improving)
Going: Good
Jockey: Cieren Fallon
Trainer: Daniel & Claire Kubler
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 59
TS: 50
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Precious Spartan
Age: 3
Weight: 8-11
Form: 27-843 (Consistent)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Andrew Mullen
Trainer: Nigel Tinkler
Trainer RTF% Form: 32%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 48
TS: 52
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Calibos has the highest RPR (70) and is expected to improve. Precious Spartan is consistent but carries less weight.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground firms up, Sovereign Class (RPR 65) may challenge.
Out of my analysis for Doncaster on the 03rd of May 2025, this horse shows the best value for money based on Age, Weight, OR, TS, and RTF’s:
Horse: Bas Bleu
Age: 4
Weight: 9-3
Form: 3231-3 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 76
TS: 82
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Form and Improvement: Bas Bleu has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making him a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The conditions on the day are expected to suit him, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.
In summary, Bas Bleu presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Doncaster – 03rd May 2025
Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)
17:10 – Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap
- Native Honey (Probability: 82%)
- Shimaleyah (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
18:50 – Summer Saturday Series Handicap
- Danzart (Probability: 80%)
- Captain Vallo (Probability: 76%) [Flagged: <80%]
19:20 – Download The At The Races App Handicap
- Rogue Dancer (Probability: 84%)
- Chuti Manika (Probability: 79%) [Flagged: <80%]
Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)
- Native Honey (17:10, Doncaster, 82%)
- Danzart (18:50, Doncaster, 80%)
- Rogue Dancer (19:20, Doncaster, 84%)
- Shimaleyah (17:10, Doncaster, 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
Note: Only three horses meet the ≥80% threshold. Shimaleyah is included to complete the Lucky 15 but is flagged for being below the threshold.
Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown
Singles
- Native Honey (17:10, Doncaster)
- Danzart (18:50, Doncaster)
- Rogue Dancer (19:20, Doncaster)
- Shimaleyah (17:10, Doncaster)
Doubles
- Native Honey + Danzart
- Native Honey + Rogue Dancer
- Native Honey + Shimaleyah
- Danzart + Rogue Dancer
- Danzart + Shimaleyah
- Rogue Dancer + Shimaleyah
Trebles
- Native Honey + Danzart + Rogue Dancer
- Native Honey + Danzart + Shimaleyah
- Native Honey + Rogue Dancer + Shimaleyah
- Danzart + Rogue Dancer + Shimaleyah
Four-Fold Accumulator
- Native Honey + Danzart + Rogue Dancer + Shimaleyah
Key Insights
- Best Value Pick: Danzart (80%) –
- Highest Probability: Rogue Dancer (84%) –
- Alternative if Needed: Chuti Manika (79%) –
