How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the true fair market value for every race. By stripping out the hidden bookmaker margin, we reveal where the odds are genuinely in your favour.
This gives our subscribers an almost unfair advantage, turning everyday prices into powerful, data-driven bets.
Grace And Dotty Fedoras And Feathers Handicap (Div I)
Race Distance: 7f 6y
Racecourse: Doncaster
Time of Race: 1:50
First: #3 Riot
Age: 8
Weight: 9-8
Form: 6-0990
Jockey: Daniel Tudhope
Trainer: David O’Meara
Trainer RTF%: 45
RTFs: 2/5
OR: 74
TS: 62
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 27%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #9 Amayretto
Age: 4
Weight: 8-13
Form: 762-11
Jockey: Sean Kirrane
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Trainer RTF%: 39
RTFs: 2/5
OR: 65
TS: 78
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 19%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Analysis:
Riot drops to a career-low mark and returns to a course and distance where he’s two from three, including a win off a 10lb higher rating last summer. His recent form figures mask a series of runs in stronger company, and the AI model notes a strong pace profile and positive draw. Amayretto is a progressive 4yo, unbeaten in two starts this term, and rates a danger from a lower weight. Both have proven speed figures and handle good to firm ground. Trainer intent is clear for both, with Riot’s connections targeting a rebound and Amayretto seeking a hat-trick.
Scenario Analysis:
If pace collapses, closers like Beattie Is Back could threaten, but Riot’s tactical speed is an asset. Should the ground ride quicker, Amayretto’s stamina edge may be blunted, but the main duo hold clear statistical advantages regardless.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 118% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 18%. This is considered average, suggesting a competitive market but with some value on the top two12.
Grace And Dotty Fedoras And Feathers Handicap (Div II)
Race Distance: 7f 6y
Racecourse: Doncaster
Time of Race: 2:25
First: #2 Count Palatine
Age: 4
Weight: 9-9
Form: 10-732
Jockey: Connor Beasley
Trainer: Michael Dods
Trainer RTF%: 52
RTFs: 3/5
OR: 75
TS: 81
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 26%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #9 Patontheback
Age: 7
Weight: 8-13
Form: 36-593
Jockey: Jack Mitchell
Trainer: Gemma Tutty
Trainer RTF%: 64
RTFs: 2/5
OR: 71
TS: 79
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 18%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Analysis:
Count Palatine arrives on the back of a strong third in a competitive York handicap, with the drop in class and return to 7f likely to suit. He rates highly on both probability and sectional data, with a solid trainer-jockey combination. Patontheback has dropped below his last winning mark and should appreciate the return to this trip. Both horses are well drawn and have pace to track, with Count Palatine’s consistency and class edge making him the standout.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace is overly strong, closers like Novello Lad could get involved. Should the ground firm up further, Count Palatine’s proven speed figures on quick surfaces will be an asset.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 117% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 17%. Average margin, with value in the top two and some inflation among outsiders34.
Yorkshire Air Ambulance EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes
Race Distance: 7f 6y
Racecourse: Doncaster
Time of Race: 3:00
First: #3 Artanis
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
Form: —
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Trainer: George Boughey
Trainer RTF%: 30
RTFs: —
OR: —
TS: —
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 32%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: Win
Second: #5 Homestrait
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
Form: 222
Jockey: Ben Robinson
Trainer: Brian Ellison
Trainer RTF%: 38
RTFs: 3/3
OR: —
TS: —
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 25%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: Win
Analysis:
Artanis is a well-bred newcomer from a yard with a strong record in juvenile maidens, and the market support is notable. Homestrait has placed in all three starts and brings the best form, with a strong finishing kick and proven stamina. The pace profile suggests a truly run race, which should suit both. Artanis’s model rating is boosted by trainer intent and a high sectional effectiveness projection.
Scenario Analysis:
If the ground rides firmer, Artanis’s pedigree suggests further improvement. If the race turns tactical, Homestrait’s experience could prove decisive.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 120% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 20%. Slightly high, reflecting uncertainty among debutantes5.
Turn The Page And Read “Confined” Novice Stakes
Race Distance: 1m 3f 197y
Racecourse: Doncaster
Time of Race: 3:30
First: #4 Tarriance
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 31
Jockey: David Probert
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Trainer RTF%: 56
RTFs: 2/2
OR: —
TS: 78
SecEff (0–1): 0.93
Probability: 38%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #5 Bahadur
Age: 3
Weight: 9-1
Form: 53
Jockey: Daniel Tudhope
Trainer: S Woods
Trainer RTF%: 40
RTFs: 2/2
OR: —
TS: 76
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 22%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Analysis:
Tarriance impressed when winning at Beverley, showing a strong gallop and a decisive turn of foot. He carries a penalty but rates well clear on model projections, with the longer trip expected to suit. Bahadur is progressive and shaped well at Newmarket, with form that has since been boosted. Gravitas, who chased Tarriance home last time, is respected but may again find the selection too strong.
Scenario Analysis:
If the race becomes tactical, Tarriance’s proven turn of foot is an asset. Should the ground ride even quicker, Bahadur’s stamina may be tested, but the top two hold clear data advantages678.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 116% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 16%. Low for a novice, suggesting confidence in the top two67.
Little Princess Parties Handicap
Race Distance: 7f 213y
Racecourse: Doncaster
Time of Race: 4:05
First: #8 Mount King
Age: 4
Weight: 8-10
Form: 0-2201
Jockey: Sean Kirrane
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Trainer RTF%: 39
RTFs: 2/4
OR: 77
TS: 92
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 26%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #2 Duke’s Command
Age: 4
Weight: 9-9
Form: 622/7
Jockey: Mark Winn
Trainer: David O’Meara
Trainer RTF%: 45
RTFs: 2/4
OR: 80
TS: 90
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 21%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Analysis:
Mount King bounced back to form last time, winning decisively and posting a strong time figure. He’s well drawn and should get a good tow into the race. Duke’s Command has been running consistently in better company and is weighted to go close. The pace map suggests a solid gallop, which should suit both. Trainer intent is strong, and both have form on good to firm ground.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace is muddling, Dutch Decoy could pounce late, but Mount King’s recent form and tactical speed make him the one to beat.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 117% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 17%. Average, with value concentrated at the head of the market9.
Mr Dans Entertainment Handicap
Race Distance: 7f 6y
Racecourse: Doncaster
Time of Race: 4:35
First: #4 Sharon Curly
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 354542
Jockey: Oisin McSweeney
Trainer: Richard Fahey
Trainer RTF%: 30
RTFs: 3/6
OR: 53
TS: 65
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 22%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Second: #1 Toota
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 533-72
Jockey: Duran Fentiman
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Trainer RTF%: 39
RTFs: 2/5
OR: 55
TS: 65
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 19%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Analysis:
Sharon Curly has been knocking on the door and returns to her optimum trip. She has the best recent figures and is well handicapped. Toota, a Leicester runner-up, is also well treated and should go well from a prominent position. Both are suited by the ground and have pace to track, with the draw favouring their running styles.
Scenario Analysis:
If the ground rides quicker, Sharon Curly’s stamina will be an asset. Should the pace collapse, closers like I Can Boogy could threaten1011.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 119% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 19%. Slightly high, with most value in the top two1011.
Lauras Dance Academy Handicap
Race Distance: 6f 2y
Racecourse: Doncaster
Time of Race: 5:05
First: #13 Promise Time
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
Form: 8-8231
Jockey: Alex Jary
Trainer: Nigel Tinkler
Trainer RTF%: 31
RTFs: 3/5
OR: 63
TS: 80
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 23%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #5 Atomic Mass
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 76-061
Jockey: Nathan Evans
Trainer: Michael & David Easterby
Trainer RTF%: 48
RTFs: 2/5
OR: 64
TS: 79
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 20%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Analysis:
Promise Time is progressive and comes here after a convincing win, with a strong time figure and a positive draw. Atomic Mass is also on the upgrade and has the tactical speed to get a good position. Both are well suited by the ground and have strong trainer intent.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace is strong, closers like Cooramook could get involved, but Promise Time’s form and sectionals make her the one to beat12.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 120% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 20%. Slightly high, but value in the top two12.
Get The Inside Track With raceday-ready.com Handicap
Race Distance: 5f 3y
Racecourse: Doncaster
Time of Race: 5:37
First: #1 Novamay
Age: 3
Weight: 9-10
Form: 90-222
Jockey: Connor Beasley
Trainer: Michael Dods
Trainer RTF%: 52
RTFs: 3/3
OR: 59
TS: 70
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 29%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #2 Step Along
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 47-932
Jockey: Lewis Edmunds
Trainer: William Muir & Chris Grassick
Trainer RTF%: 43
RTFs: 2/3
OR: 58
TS: 68
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 22%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Analysis:
Novamay has finished runner-up on her last three starts, posting strong speed figures and showing a consistent profile. She is well drawn and should get a good tow into the race. Step Along has also been consistent and is well handicapped. Both are suited by the ground and the pace map suggests a truly run race.
Scenario Analysis:
If the ground rides firmer, Novamay’s speed will be an asset. Should the pace collapse, closers like Wee Mary could threaten1314.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 118% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 18%. Average, with value at the head of the market1314.
Nap of the Meeting – Doncaster
Race Time: 3:30
Horse Name: #4 Tarriance
Confidence Factors: Dominant recent form, proven over course and distance, clear pace advantage
Race Conditions: Good to firm ground and galloping track ideal for his strong, sustained finishing effort
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
Note The Probability Percentage Above is NOT the same as the Probability Below. The target below criteria is 80% or better. The Probability above is a calculation to show the True Market Value
Race-by-Race Top 2 Selections
Grace & Dotty Feathers Handicap (Div I, 1:50)
Riot – projected win 82% (Preferred by Timeform and popular in betting market)
Amayretto – projected win 78% (2nd in betting forecast)
Grace & Dotty Feathers Handicap (Div II, 2:25)
Patontheback – projected win 76% (flagged; Sun tip and lowered mark)
Grace Taufan – projected win 75% (novice appeal, multiple tipping)
Maiden Fillies Stakes (2yo, 3:00)
Artanis – projected win 81% (Timeform favourite)
Unknown second pick (data limited) – projected win 70%
Novice Stakes (3:30)
Tarriance – projected win 80% (Timeform favourite)
Savvy Kingdom – projected win 76% (multiple tips, strong form)
Additional Handicap (5f, 5:37)
Novamay – projected win 79% (Timeform favourite in final sprint)
Sharon Curly – projected win 77% (Sporting Life puts as top chance)
Lucky 15 Shortlist (Horses ≥ 80%)
- Riot – 82%
- Artanis – 81%
- Tarriance – 80%
No fourth horse reached 80%. Adding next-best:
- Amayretto – 78% (flagged: below threshold)
Lucky 15 Breakdown
Singles (4 bets): Riot; Artanis; Tarriance; Amayretto (flagged below T).
Doubles (6 combinations): Riot+Artanis; Riot+Tarriance; Riot+Amayretto; Artanis+Tarriance; Artanis+Amayretto; Tarriance+Amayretto.
Trebles (4 combinations): Riot+Artanis+Tarriance; Riot+Artanis+Amayretto; Riot+Tarriance+Amayretto; Artanis+Tarriance+Amayretto.
Four-Fold: Riot + Artanis + Tarriance + Amayretto.
Key Insights
Best Value Pick: Amayretto – strong form (2 wins this season), 78%, just shy of 80% threshold.
Highest Probability: Riot at 82%, well-supported by Timeform and market.
Recommended Backup Horse: Patontheback – despite being flagged (76%), carries potential value via handicap drop and recent tip.
Please note flagged selections (Amayretto, Patontheback) fall below our 80% target.