Bet Smart & Win — Doncaster Race Preview
Friday 24 October 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: James Doyle
- T: Hamad Al Jehani
- Trainer RTF%: 86%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
This runner meets our core criteria with a value assessment of Above Fair. The AI model identifies strong value given the normalized probability is higher than the implied.
Details
- J: William Buick
- T: James Ferguson
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
The form pick has a Fair value assessment. While the probability is high, the value is not as pronounced as our top selection, but consistency is key.
Details
- J: Jason Hart
- T: John & Sean Quinn
- Trainer RTF%: 39%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Another runner showing Above Fair value. The model favours its chances in the conditions against the favourite.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: William Haggas
- Trainer RTF%: 72%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
The market leader has a Below Fair value assessment, but the AI logic places a premium on the trainer/jockey combination and the stable’s reputation with newcomers.
Details
- J: Ray Dawson
- T: Roger Varian
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Also shows Below Fair value, but is another well-bred newcomer from a top yard and is a clear danger.
Details
- J: Warren Fentiman
- T: John Butler
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
The only runner with experience and a Fair value assessment. Could be the one to capitalise if the newcomers fail to handle the occasion or the ground.
Details
- J: James Doyle
- T: K R Burke
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
The favourite presents Above Fair value. The model aligns with the market, identifying this newcomer as the most probable winner.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: William Haggas
- Trainer RTF%: 72%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Another debutante from a powerful stable showing Above Fair value, making her a serious contender.
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Has the benefit of experience and an Above Fair value assessment. Expected to improve and handle the testing conditions.
Details
- J: Harry Davies
- T: James Owen
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
The progressive profile is compelling. The AI model confirms strong value with an Above Fair assessment, making him the clear top pick.
Details
- J: James Doyle
- T: Hamad Al Jehani
- Trainer RTF%: 86%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Comes into the race in form and carries an Above Fair value rating, solidifying his place in the top three.
Details
- J: Ben Ffrench Davis
- T: Dominic Ffrench Davis
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Another last-time-out winner showing Above Fair value. The model suggests this runner is overpriced by the bookmakers.
Details
- J: William Buick
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trainer RTF%: 77%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
The unbeaten favourite has a Below Fair value assessment, but the AI model acknowledges the superior form and connections, making him the most likely winner.
Details
- J: David Allan
- T: Tim Easterby
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Shows a Fair value assessment and has consistent form in the book. Represents the main danger.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: William Haggas
- Trainer RTF%: 72%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Holds an Above Fair value rating. The model identifies this runner as an overlay with a solid chance to hit the frame.
Details
- J: Cian Horgan
- T: David O’Meara
- Trainer RTF%: 39%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
The nap selection excels on heavy ground and presents strong Above Fair value. The model’s top-rated runner aligns perfectly with our ideal criteria.
Details
- J: Mark Winn
- T: David O’Meara
- Trainer RTF%: 39%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
A stablemate with a pronounced Above Fair value assessment. The O’Meara yard holds a strong hand and this runner is a major player.
Details
- J: Harrison Shaw
- T: Bryan Smart
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Offers significant Above Fair value at a bigger price. The model identifies this runner as a live outsider for the places.
Details
- J: Neil Callan
- T: John Butler
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
The selection has an Above Fair value assessment and is open to further improvement. The model projects a strong run in these conditions.
Details
- J: Kevin Stott
- T: Roger Fell
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
A last-time-out winner showing Above Fair value. A solid contender who is clearly in form.
Details
- J: Jack Nicholls
- T: K R Burke
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
The favourite has a Fair value assessment. While not an overlay, the model respects its claims enough to include in the top three.
Analysis
Confidence Factors: Above Fair Value, Proven heavy ground form, Fits ideal class and runner criteria, Represents a powerful trainer/jockey combination.
Race Conditions: Class 4 Handicap over 6f on heavy ground.
Summary: This is our Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.