Bet Smart & Win — Doncaster Race Preview
Saturday 25 October 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Sean D Bowen
- T: Sam England
- Trip: 5f 3y
- Trainer RTF%: 90%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 78
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Above Fair value (NP > IP) and proven on testing ground. Primary play.
Details
- J: Oisin Murphy
- T: David & Nicola Barron
- Trip: 5f 3y
- Trainer RTF%: 15%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 87
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Recent win; Fair value with elite jockey booking.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: Roger Teal
- Trip: 5f 3y
- Trainer RTF%: 20%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 94
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Market near-top; Fair value; handles conditions.
Details
- J: Christophe Soumillon
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 68%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 110
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Clear leader on our numbers; NP comfortably > IP. Above Fair.
Details
- J: Ronan Whelan
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 68%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 111
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Stablemate; Fair value as the main danger.
Details
- J: Wayne Lordan
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 68%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 110
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Solid place claims; priced tight vs NP (Below Fair).
Details
- J: Shane Gray
- T: K R Burke
- Trip: 6f 2y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 97
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Highest OR; Above Fair. Sets the standard on soft ground.
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 6f 2y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 85
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Unexposed; Above Fair with scope to progress.
Details
- J: Oisin Orr
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 6f 2y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 97
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Consistent; Fair value to hit the frame.
Details
- J: Marco Ghiani
- T: Charles Hills
- Trip: 7f 6y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 77
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Above Fair; already effective on testing ground.
Details
- J: Benoit De La Sayette
- T: Marco Botti
- Trip: 7f 6y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 84
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Lightly raced improver; Fair value.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 7f 6y
- Trainer RTF%: 73%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 78
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Power yard; priced a shade short vs NP (Below Fair).
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 73%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 93
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Lightly raced 3yo; Above Fair; ticks conditions.
Details
- J: Kevin Stott
- T: David O’Meara
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 84
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
CD form; Fair value; consistent profile.
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 96
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Back to optimal trip; Fair value contender.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: George Boughey
- Trip: 1m 2f 43y
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 100
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Rejuvenated 3yo; Above Fair; more to come at the trip.
Details
- J: Jason Hart
- T: Hugo Palmer
- Trip: 1m 2f 43y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 107
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Strong CD credentials; Fair value to contend.
Details
- J: Luke Morris
- T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt
- Trip: 1m 2f 43y
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 88
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Capable yard; Below Fair at current quotes.
Details
- J: Paul Mulrennan
- T: Jim Goldie
- Trip: 7f 6y
- Trainer RTF%: 39%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 73
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
On a roll this term; Above Fair even in a warmer book.
Details
- J: Oisin Orr
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 7f 6y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 79
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Consistent; Fair value for places.
Details
- J: Alistair Rawlinson
- T: Michael Appleby
- Trip: 7f 6y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 70
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Well treated; Above Fair at bigger prices.
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 7f 6y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 79
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Soft-ground return a plus; Fair value.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood
- Trip: 7f 6y
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 68
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Excellent recent form; Fair value with strong jockey booking.
Details
- J: Mikkel Mortensen
- T: Scott Dixon
- Trip: 7f 6y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 72
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Shrewd yard; Above Fair at current tissue.
Analysis
Above Fair (NP 19% > IP 17%), ideal ground, trainer in form (RTF 90%). Strongest alignment with model signals.
Details
- Race: Skill Step Group Handicap (R1, 1:30)
- Trip: 5f 3y • Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 90%
- Odds: (not provided)
- OR: 78
- Overround: 112%