Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
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Race Name: Ballygowan Maiden Hurdle (Div I)
Race Distance: 2m1f79y
Racecourse: Down Royal
Time of Race: 1:00
First: Kara Sacre
Age: 5
Weight: 11-4
Form: 1/2- (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Richard Deegan
Trainer: Paul Nolan
Trainer RTF% Form: 42%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 78
TS: 125
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Ivybrook
Age: 7
Weight: 11-4
Form: 26976- (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Good
Jockey: Niall Moore
Trainer: Dermot A McLoughlin
Trainer RTF% Form: 15%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 113
TS: 109
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Kara Sacre has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making her a contender even in a competitive field. Ivybrook has a solid OR and TS but lacks consistency.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Ivybrook’s stamina could come into play, but Kara Sacre’s speed on good ground gives her the edge.
Race Name: Ballygowan Maiden Hurdle (Div II)
Race Distance: 2m1f79y
Racecourse: Down Royal
Time of Race: 1:35
First: Coyote Spirit
Age: 7
Weight: 11-12
Form: 6/231- (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Kevin Sexton
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Trainer RTF% Form: 34%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Fairbanks
Age: 5
Weight: 11-12
Form: – (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Good
Jockey: Patrick M O’Brien
Trainer: William Durkan
Trainer RTF% Form: 33%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Coyote Spirit has strong recent form and benefits from Elliott’s high RTF%. Fairbanks is unproven but has potential.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground remains good, Coyote Spirit’s speed will dominate. Fairbanks could challenge if the pace is slow.
Race Name: Club Lemon Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m1f79y
Racecourse: Down Royal
Time of Race: 2:10
First: Tubberfinn Lady
Age: 5
Weight: 11-3
Form: 09001- (Strong recent form)
Going: Good
Jockey: Patrick M O’Brien
Trainer: Michael Mulvany
Trainer RTF% Form: 44%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 89
TS: 78
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Malbas
Age: 9
Weight: 11-13
Form: 38001- (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Kieren Buckley
Trainer: Edward Buckley
Trainer RTF% Form: 29%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 99
TS: 97
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Tubberfinn Lady has a strong finish and suits the distance. Malbas is consistent but may lack the speed to win.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Malbas’s stamina could be a factor, but Tubberfinn Lady’s recent form is superior.
Race Name: Pepsi Max Hurdle
Race Distance: 3m
Racecourse: Down Royal
Time of Race: 2:45
First: Timmy Tuesday
Age: 7
Weight: 11-10
Form: 13120- (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Kevin Sexton
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Trainer RTF% Form: 34%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 137
TS: 120
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Clodders Dream
Age: 7
Weight: 11-10
Form: 1321P- (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Good
Jockey: Finn Brickley
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Trainer RTF% Form: 34%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 128
TS: 109
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Timmy Tuesday has the highest OR and TS, making him the standout. Clodders Dream is consistent but may lack the finishing speed.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is slow, Clodders Dream could challenge, but Timmy Tuesday’s class should prevail.
Race Name: Club Orange Beginners Chase
Race Distance: 2m3f150y
Racecourse: Down Royal
Time of Race: 3:20
First: Encanto Bruno
Age: 7
Weight: 11-12
Form: 9/PP2- (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Kieren Buckley
Trainer: Gavin Cromwell
Trainer RTF% Form: 38%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 69
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Big Stage
Age: 7
Weight: 11-12
Form: F3075- (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Good
Jockey: Kevin Sexton
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Trainer RTF% Form: 34%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 119
TS: 115
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Encanto Bruno has shown promise over fences. Big Stage has a higher TS but lacks consistency.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Big Stage’s stamina could be an advantage, but Encanto Bruno’s form is stronger.
Race Name: Club Mixers Handicap Chase
Race Distance: 3m2f50y
Racecourse: Down Royal
Time of Race: 3:55
First: Sea Aster
Age: 7
Weight: 11-12
Form: 4641U- (Strong recent form)
Going: Good
Jockey: Kevin Sexton
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Trainer RTF% Form: 34%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 117
TS: 80
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Smitty Bacall
Age: 14
Weight: 10-1
Form: 33351- (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Mike O’Connor
Trainer: J P Flavin
Trainer RTF% Form: 20%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 92
TS: 55
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Sea Aster’s recent win and high OR make him the favorite. Smitty Bacall is consistent but may lack the class.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is slow, Smitty Bacall’s experience could help, but Sea Aster’s form is superior.
Race Name: C&C White Maiden Hunters Chase
Race Distance: 2m7f50y
Racecourse: Down Royal
Time of Race: 4:30
First: Bold Fury
Age: 6
Weight: 12-0
Form: 36212- (Strong recent form)
Going: Good
Jockey: Mr T C Kileff
Trainer: S R B Crawford
Trainer RTF% Form: 38%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 60
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Justlikejessejames
Age: 6
Weight: 11-7
Form: 24112- (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Mr L P Shanahan
Trainer: Ross O’Sullivan
Trainer RTF% Form: 39%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 69
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Bold Fury has the strongest form and suits the distance. Justlikejessejames is consistent but may lack the finishing speed.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Justlikejessejames could challenge, but Bold Fury’s form is superior.
Race Name: Energise (Pro/Am) INH Flat Race
Race Distance: 2m1f79y
Racecourse: Down Royal
Time of Race: 5:05
First: Leopard d’Irlande
Age: 4
Weight: 11-10
Form: 7- (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Good
Jockey: Mr D Doyle
Trainer: S Curling
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Test The Market
Age: 4
Weight: 11-10
Form: 74- (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Mr H C Swan
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Trainer RTF% Form: 34%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Leopard d’Irlande has shown promise in limited runs. Test The Market is consistent but unproven.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is slow, Test The Market could challenge, but Leopard d’Irlande’s potential gives him the edge.
Best Value for Money Horse at Down Royal (05 May 2025)
Out of my analysis for Down Royal, this horse shows the best value for money based on Age, Weight, OR, TS, and RTF’s:
Horse: Kara Sacre
Age: 5
Weight: 11-4
Form: 1/2- (Consistent performances)
OR: 78
TS: 125
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Form and Improvement: Kara Sacre has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making her a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The conditions on the day are expected to suit her, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.
In summary, Kara Sacre presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Down Royal – 05th May 2025
Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)
Ballygowan Maiden Hurdle (Div I) (13:00)
- Kara Sacre (Probability: 80%)
- Ivybrook (Probability: 70%) [Flagged: <80%]
Ballygowan Maiden Hurdle (Div II) (13:35)
- Coyote Spirit (Probability: 85%)
- Fairbanks (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]
Club Lemon Handicap Hurdle (14:10)
- Farrokh (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
- Malbas (Probability: 72%) [Flagged: <80%]
Club Mixers Handicap Chase (15:55)
- Sea Aster (Probability: 80%)
- Smitty Bacall (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]
Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)
- Coyote Spirit (13:35, Down Royal, 85%)
- Kara Sacre (13:00, Down Royal, 80%)
- Sea Aster (15:55, Down Royal, 80%)
Note: Only 3 horses meet the ≥80% threshold. Consider including the highest-rated alternative below to complete the Lucky 15.
- Farrokh (14:10, Down Royal, 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown
Singles
- Coyote Spirit (13:35, Down Royal)
- Kara Sacre (13:00, Down Royal)
- Sea Aster (15:55, Down Royal)
- Farrokh (14:10, Down Royal)
Doubles
- Coyote Spirit + Kara Sacre
- Coyote Spirit + Sea Aster
- Coyote Spirit + Farrokh
- Kara Sacre + Sea Aster
- Kara Sacre + Farrokh
- Sea Aster + Farrokh
Trebles
- Coyote Spirit + Kara Sacre + Sea Aster
- Coyote Spirit + Kara Sacre + Farrokh
- Coyote Spirit + Sea Aster + Farrokh
- Kara Sacre + Sea Aster + Farrokh
Four-Fold Accumulator
- Coyote Spirit + Kara Sacre + Sea Aster + Farrokh
Key Insights
- Best Value Pick: Kara Sacre (80%) –
- Highest Probability: Coyote Spirit (85%) –
- Alternative if Needed: Fairbanks (75%) –
