Bet Smart & Win — Down Royal Race Preview
Friday 31 October 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP. If IP is higher than NP, that selection’s bar would be flagged red in production to warn you the market may be overpricing it.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m6f110y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (forecast fav)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Clear model pick on raw ability. Market is already short — marked Below Fair with IP > NP.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m6f110y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (forecast 2nd fav)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Stable’s runners tend to improve for a run. NP > IP indicates Fair value.
Details
- J: Sam Ewing
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m6f110y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (forecast 3rd)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Yard’s second string on paper; IP higher than NP says the crowd may be overpaying for the name.
Details
- J: Sam Ewing
- T: Ian Patrick Donoghue
- Trip: 3m65y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (forecast short)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Stays well and handles this sort of ground. Fair value but crowded book (20 runners) and high margin.
Details
- J: Cian Cullinan
- T: Aengus King
- Trip: 3m65y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (forecast each-way)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Two recent wins show form spike, but market may have overreacted — Below Fair.
Details
- J: Alex Harvey
- T: John C McConnell
- Trip: 3m65y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (forecast place chance)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Honest profile but punished by the book. Below Fair at current projection.
Details
- J: Sean O’Keeffe
- T: Declan Queally
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (forecast fav)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Strong graded profile and ticks our ideal setup: Class 3, 9 runners, 107% book. Marks as Above Fair vs this field.
Details
- J: Paul Townend
- T: W P Mullins
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (forecast 2nd fav)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
High-profile yard pulls the price shorter than our model. IP > NP → Below Fair.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (forecast 3rd)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Strong yard, honest profile, but market has tightened enough to make her Below Fair right now.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (forecast fav)
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
Headline horse on raw talent. Market a touch too aggressive (IP > NP) so technically Below Fair.
Details
- J: Jordan Gainford
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (forecast 2nd fav)
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
Stablemate with solid Listed credentials. Value sits around Fair but still a notch behind the favourite on class ceiling.
Details
- J: Cian Quirke
- T: Andrew Slattery
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (forecast outsider)
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
Third string on figures. Needs a big jump forward at this level; priced about right for place/minor money only.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m100y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (forecast fav)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Chasing profile looks sound. Fair value as favourite; not screaming overlay, but sets the standard.
Details
- J: Danny Gilligan
- T: Darren Collins
- Trip: 2m100y
- Trainer RTF%: (N/A)
- Odds: (forecast 2nd/3rd)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Numbers suggest mild underperformance vs price. Slightly Below Fair (IP edges NP).
Details
- J: Eoin Staples
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trip: 2m100y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (forecast place chance)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Consistent but doesn’t profile as a value angle: IP > NP and trainer not red-hot. Caution.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m3f192y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (forecast fav)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Obvious on chase debut profile, but market already squeezed him. Below Fair at current projection.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m3f192y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (forecast 2nd fav)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Well-regarded yard. IP higher than NP again says you’re paying full price.
Details
- J: Paul Townend
- T: W P Mullins
- Trip: 2m3f192y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (forecast 3rd)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Respected jockey booking, but again the Mullins effect shortens him. Below Fair on price vs model.
Details
- J: Mr H C Swan
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (forecast fav)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Market leader for obvious reasons, but priced a shade hot (IP > NP) so technically Below Fair.
Details
- J: Mr Derek O’Connor
- T: A J Martin
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 27%
- Odds: (forecast 2nd fav)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Battle-hardened and priced slightly under the model’s line → Above Fair. Genuine bet angle if you’re playing this race.
Details
- J: Mr J H Williamson
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (forecast 3rd)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Third string on paper but still competitive. Fair-to-slightly-thin on current tissue.
Analysis
High Normalized Probability (41%), Above Fair value, ideal race profile (9 runners, Class 3 / Grade 3 mares’ novice, 107% book). Ground and trip both look right. This is our “run-that-wins” scenario for Down Royal 31/10/25.