Bet Smart & Win — Dundalk Race Preview
Friday 14 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: G M Lyons
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 82%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Amiata is the clear form pick and likely market leader, with a strong Normalized Probability that still edges the Implied line.
Details
- J: Ronan Whelan
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
My Cubby Bear is the second favourite on the forecast and represents solid Above-Fair value on the AI model.
Details
- J: Seamie Heffernan
- T: Josh Halley
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Whatchadoin has been consistent and has a strong jockey booking; the AI still marks the price slightly Below Fair but sees solid place claims.
Details
- J: Alan Casey
- T: Denis Gerard Hogan
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Recent C&D winner who looks fairly treated; model marks him as a solid, Fair-value selection.
Details
- J: Jimmy Dalton
- T: Miss Evanna McCutcheon
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
In excellent recent form and still in the mix, but the current price runs a shade above the model’s Fair line.
Details
- J: Adam Grant
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Joint-favourite from a powerful yard; respected, though the AI flags the current odds as slightly Below Fair.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: Denis Gerard Hogan
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Strong favourite and our Nap of the Meeting; the raw odds slightly outrun NP, but profile, trip and draw all point to a “run-that-wins” scenario.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: Ross O’Sullivan
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Clear second choice on the betting forecast with an improving profile; the model reads the current quote as broadly Fair.
Details
- J: W J Lee
- T: A Oliver
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Consistent enough to have a place say, though the AI has the current odds a touch above the Fair line.
Details
- J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy
- T: Patrick J Flynn
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
C&D winner who was narrowly denied last time; standout on form, though the market currently runs a little hot versus NP.
Details
- J: Rory Mulligan
- T: M M Rice
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Second favourite on the tissue and coming to the boil; EW player, but price currently sits below the Fair line.
Details
- J: Sam Coen
- T: Adrian McGuinness
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Capable of outrunning odds in this grade; model has him slightly Below Fair on current prices but still on the each-way radar.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: Robson De Aguiar
- Trip: 1m2f150y
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Short-priced favourite after two promising runs; model agrees on top chance but notes the market has pushed the IP well above NP.
Details
- J: Ben Coen
- T: John C McConnell
- Trip: 1m2f150y
- Trainer RTF%: 26%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Ultra-consistent profile; Fair value alternative to the favourite and a major threat on the numbers.
Details
- J: Declan McDonogh
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 1m2f150y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Solid experience and a strong yard; more of a place candidate with the current odds slightly below the Fair band.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: Richard John O’Brien
- Trip: 1m2f150y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Likely favourite on revised terms; main form angle but current market runs well above the model’s Fair price.
Details
- J: Jamie Powell
- T: Adrian McGuinness
- Trip: 1m2f150y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Closely matched with the favourite on recent runs; serious rival, though again marginally Below Fair on price.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: Ross O’Sullivan
- Trip: 1m2f150y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Course winner who can get competitive if back to best; the AI treats him as a place candidate at current odds.
Details
- J: Robbie Colgan
- T: Matthew J Smith
- Trip: 1m2f150y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Chasing a hat-trick after back-to-back wins; top-rated on recent form but the market is aggressive versus the model’s NP.
Details
- J: Ben Coen
- T: Andrew Slattery
- Trip: 1m2f150y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Main danger on consistent recent efforts; however, IP again sits well above the model’s Fair line.
Details
- J: Adam Grant
- T: Noel C Kelly
- Trip: 1m2f150y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Reliable profile and enough form to suggest an each-way squeak; slightly Below Fair at current quotes.
Analysis
Nursery handicap for two-year-olds over a mile on the Standard Polytrack. Badger’s Cove has progressed steadily, shaping like a winner-in-waiting, and now gets ideal conditions with a top jockey booked. Despite the market rating him very strongly (IP above NP), the overall profile, track suitability and trainer intent make this our Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model here.