Bet Smart & Win — Dundalk Race Preview
Wednesday 29 October 2025 • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: Gerard O’Leary
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 22%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
- Class Figure: 83
Analysis
The clear favourite whose form on the level is significantly stronger than these rivals. Top jockey booking adds confidence.
Details
- J: J M Sheridan
- T: Denis Gerard Hogan
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
- Class Figure: 76
Analysis
Has shown ability in better company and is now down in class. Represents solid each-way value in this field.
Details
- J: Declan McDonogh
- T: P F O’Donnell
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
- Class Figure: 63
Analysis
Trainer boasts a 100% RTF%. A longshot, but the in-form yard and decent draw make him an interesting outsider for the frame.
Details
- J: Ben Coen
- T: Edward Lynam
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
- Class Figure: 63
Analysis
The market leader with strong recent form on this surface. The combination of a top rider and in-form trainer is compelling.
Details
- J: Adam Caffrey
- T: Adrian McGuinness
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
- Class Figure: 64
Analysis
Well-handicapped on his best form and the booking of a good claimer is a positive sign. A major player if he handles the surface.
Details
- J: Gary Carroll
- T: G M Lyons
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
- Class Figure: 72
Analysis
Consistent sort who is rarely far away. Should be involved in the finish once again from a good draw.
Details
- J: Ronan Whelan
- T: Adrian McGuinness
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
- Class Figure: 68
Analysis
Returns to a mile, her winning trip, and is well-drawn. The model identifies her as the best value against the favourite.
Details
- J: Gary Carroll
- T: A Oliver
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
- Class Figure: 67
Analysis
Has been in excellent consistent form and deserves to get his head in front. The main threat to the selection.
Details
- J: Adam Caffrey
- T: Adrian McGuinness
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
- Class Figure: 70
Analysis
The favourite on the back of a solid last run. Has the highest mark in the race but is now Below Fair value.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
The step up to 7f is expected to suit this well-bred filly who showed promise on debut. The one to beat.
Details
- J: Ronan Whelan
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
From a powerhouse stable and showed good speed on debut. Should improve significantly for the experience.
Details
- J: Shane B Kelly
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Another from the O’Brien yard with solid form in the book. Enters calculations with strong Above Fair value.
Details
- J: Gary Carroll
- T: G M Lyons
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
- Class Figure: 88
Analysis
The form pick having already broken his maiden. The one they all have to beat, though the value is now minimal.
Details
- J: Ronan Whelan
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
An expensive breeze-up purchase representing a top stable. The market vibes and connections demand respect.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: Mrs John Harrington
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 30%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Has shown high ability in two runs to date and is entitled to win a race soon. A very live contender.
Details
- J: Patrick McGettigan
- T: P Sweeney
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
- Class Figure: 45
Analysis
The veteran is in fine heart and was a close second on his stable debut. Looks well-handicapped to go one better.
Details
- J: Adam Caffrey
- T: Adrian McGuinness
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
- Class Figure: 44
Analysis
The favourite after a good recent second. Drawn well and is a consistent type, but is now Below Fair value.
Details
- J: Emily Grifferty
- T: Noel Meade
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
- Class Figure: 50
Analysis
Finally found some form last time out and a repeat of that effort puts him in the frame at a price.
Details
- J: Chris Hayes
- T: Noel Meade
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
- Class Figure: 76
Analysis
Has the best form in the book with two solid placed efforts. The one to beat if translating turf form to the all-weather.
Details
- J: Seamie Heffernan
- T: Josh Halley
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
- Class Figure: 76
Analysis
The market leader based on consistent runs. However, he is becoming expensive to follow and offers Below Fair value.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: Daniel James Murphy
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Showed promise on debut and can be expected to improve. An interesting contender at an each-way price.
Details
- J: Wayne Hassett
- T: Shane Crawley
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
- Class Figure: 67
Analysis
A triple course winner trying a new trip for her new in-form trainer. The value selection to outrun her odds.
Details
- J: J M Sheridan
- T: W P Mullins
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
- Class Figure: 62
Analysis
The favourite after a recent win. The Mullins factor is strong, but she is now short enough in the betting.
Details
- J: Jamie Powell
- T: M D O’Callaghan
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
- Class Figure: 69
Analysis
Consistent filly who ran well last time. Should be thereabouts once again in a competitive finale.
Analysis
Returns to ideal trip, strong trainer/jockey combination, Above Fair value price. Well-drawn in a race where our preferred criteria and overround are in range. Back with confidence.