Bet Smart & Win — Exeter Race Preview
Monday 17 November 2025 • 6 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m 161y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.4%
Analysis
Point winner with proven soft-ground form. Step up in trip on this undulating track should suit. SecEff-J from his pointing days is a strong positive and he’s likely to race prominently in a solidly run contest. Jumping over hurdles is still a minor unknown, but overall profile is superior to most of this field; value is Below Fair but justified by his position at the head of the market.
Each-way advised where 4 places at 1/5 are available.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m 161y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.4%
Analysis
Another with point-winning form, bringing stamina and soft-ground capability to the table. Likely to be ridden forwardly, and French SecEff-J figures are respectable, suggesting he’ll handle Exeter’s gradients. The fall last time is a niggle and this is his UK debut, so there are a couple of questions to answer, but the raw ability is there; value is Below Fair on current odds but he remains a key contender.
Details
- J: Sean Houlihan
- T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White
- Trip: 2m 161y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.4%
Analysis
Flat winner who should cope with conditions; this trip is a slight unknown but breeding suggests it’s within range. SecEff-J derived from his flat efforts shows a strong finishing kick and he’s likely to be held up, looking to pick them off late. Unproven over hurdles but the yard is more than capable of improving one for this job; value is Fair and he’s a very workable alternative to the front pair.
Details
- J: Nico de Boinville
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 2m 1f 109y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 104.8%
Analysis
Grade 1 class over hurdles and looks the standout on raw ability. The trip and ground look ideal for this chasing debut and his SecEff-J marks him out as a quality operator at this level. Jumping over fences is the only new question, but technique over hurdles has been slick; value is Fair in a race where he is clearly the one they all have to beat.
Details
- J: Caoilin Quinn
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trip: 2m 1f 109y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 104.8%
Analysis
Already has chasing experience and handles soft ground well. The trip is spot on and his SecEff-J profile is that of a consistent performer who can apply pressure from the front. A fall two starts back is the only real blemish; value is Fair and he looks the obvious one for the forecast behind the hot favourite.
Details
- J: Jonathan Burke
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m 1f 109y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 104.8%
Analysis
Point and bumper winner, so ground and stamina look fine. An unseat last time tempers confidence slightly, but SecEff-J is respectable and he’s likely to be part of the early pace. Jumping reliability is the main question; value is Fair but he must cut out the errors to trouble the front pair.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m 2f 111y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 104.4%
Analysis
Effective in bumpers on soft ground and now stepping up in trip for hurdles, which looks a major positive given her stamina-laden profile. SecEff-J from those bumper runs is strong, indicating an ability to quicken off a good pace, and she should be ridden handily. Jumping is still unexposed, but reports are encouraging; value is Above Fair, which gives her a clear edge.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: Jamie Snowden
- Trip: 2m 2f 111y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 104.4%
Analysis
Already a hurdles winner and proven on this sort of ground. Carries a penalty for that success, which tilts the scales slightly against her in value terms, but she’s likely to be on or near the lead, ensuring a proper test. Reliable jumper who rarely does much wrong; value is Below Fair given the extra weight, yet she remains a major player.
Details
- J: Jonathan Burke
- T: Toby Bulgin
- Trip: 2m 2f 111y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Farmer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 104.4%
Analysis
Arrives here off a win on soft ground, so confidence should be high. The extra distance is a slight unknown, but SecEff-J is trending the right way and she’s likely to be held up for a late run. Jumping has been reliable enough; value is Fair and she can easily outrun her odds for a place.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m 3f 48y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.2%
Analysis
Excellent form on soft and heavy ground, and already proven over this trip and configuration. SecEff-J is consistently high, suggesting he can travel and finish strongly off a solid pace, and he should be dropped in behind what looks a strong gallop. A sound, reliable jumper with a clear NP > IP value edge; value is Above Fair and he rates the standout bet in the race.
Each-way advised (4 places / 1/5) where available.
Details
- J: Ciaran Gethings
- T: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls
- Trip: 2m 3f 48y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.2%
Analysis
Impressive win on soft last time and a 7lb rise is fair, but this longer trip demands a bit more. SecEff-J is strong and a patient ride should suit, though he may need everything to fall right in a deeper race. Jumping has looked fluent; value is Below Fair given the short price, but he remains an obvious danger.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m 3f 48y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.2%
Analysis
Course-and-distance winner on soft ground who arrives lightly raced and still open to progress. SecEff-J is persuasive and he’s likely to race prominently, possibly looking to dominate from a long way out. Jumping is generally sound; value is Fair and he represents a live threat if allowed an easy lead.
Details
- J: Dylan Johnston
- T: Sam Thomas
- Trip: 3m 54y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Soft/heavy ground form is a key asset and the step up to 3m on testing terrain should play to his strengths. SecEff-J over hurdles suggests he will stay all day, and a patient ride in a race with abundant pace looks ideal. Chase debut is a slight unknown, but the profile screams staying chaser; value is Fair and he’s one of the more interesting unexposed types.
Details
- J: Stan Sheppard
- T: Henry Daly
- Trip: 3m 54y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Proven over fences and on soft ground, with enough class to defy top weight if things fall his way. SecEff-J is solid if unspectacular and he’s likely to race prominently, giving a bold sight for much of the trip. Jumping is reliable with a high completion rate; value is Fair and he deserves plenty of respect.
Details
- J: Joe Anderson
- T: Jamie Snowden
- Trip: 3m 54y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Comes from a hot yard with winning form on the board. Ground is no issue but the extended trip is a slight question. SecEff-J from hurdles suggests he’s capable of racing on the speed, which is often a plus here. Makes his chase debut and needs to translate that form to the bigger obstacles; value is Fair at current odds.
Details
- J: Jay Tidball
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m 7f 25y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.0%
Analysis
Lightly raced and very possibly well-handicapped, with conditions likely to suit. Acts on soft ground and this extended trip looks a strong positive rather than a concern. SecEff-J is promising and the hold-up style should play well at Exeter; value is Above Fair, which makes him a very compelling option.
Details
- J: Lewis Stones
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m 7f 25y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.0%
Analysis
In excellent form prior to his latest run and there’s nothing about ground or trip that should inconvenience him. SecEff-J is notably strong and a handy, on-the-pace ride could make him very tough to pass. Consistent jumper; value is Fair and he’s a very solid benchmark in this field.
Details
- J: Isabelle Ryder
- T: Jamie Snowden
- Trip: 2m 7f 25y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.0%
Analysis
Course winner who clearly acts well on this track and in these conditions. The extended trip suits his staying-on style and SecEff-J confirms he finishes his races off strongly. Jumping is generally reliable; value is Fair and he looks solid each-way material at the right price.
Each-way advised where 4 places / 1/5 are available.
Analysis
Proven on soft and heavy ground, fully effective at this trip and already comfortable with Exeter’s undulations. SecEff-J is consistently strong, pointing to a horse who can travel smoothly off a strong pace and still find at the finish. His jumping is reliable for the grade and the NP > IP relationship confirms a genuine value edge. With trainer Dan Skelton traditionally strong in these winter handicaps, this is the run-that-wins scenario the model favours most. Back with confidence.