Bet Smart & Win — Exeter Race Preview
Tuesday 21 October 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection supports Placepot coverage.
We leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin to uncover True Market Value via Overround, Probability and Value. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. Avoid bets when Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). Golden rule — NP should be higher than IP.
Value labels: AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), BF (Below Fair). When all conditions align, the selection card shows a green border.
Details
- J: Isabel Williams
- T: Evan Williams
- Trip: 2m2f111y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds (≈ from IP): 3.33
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
NP exceeds IP by 2pts; solid return profile.
Details
- J: Ben Godfrey
- T: Anthony Honeyball
- Trip: 2m2f111y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds (≈ from IP): 4.35
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Fair-to-Above Fair; consistent model signals.
Details
- J: Kielan Woods
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m2f111y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds (≈ from IP): 5.56
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Competitive; moderate value edge.
Details
- J: Theo Gillard
- T: Donald McCain
- Trip: 2m161y
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds (≈ from IP): 5.00
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
AF value; stable in fair nick.
Details
- J: David Bass
- T: Max Comley
- Trip: 2m161y
- Trainer RTF%: 71%
- Odds (≈ from IP): 3.85
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Top NP; priced fairly with slight edge.
Details
- J: Taylor Fisher
- T: Joe Tickle
- Trip: 2m161y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds (≈ from IP): 5.26
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Interesting profile; AF on our tissue.
Details
- J: Bryan Carver
- T: Chris Honour
- Trip: 2m7f25y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds (≈ from IP): 3.45
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Clear value profile; strong NAP candidate.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m7f25y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds (≈ from IP): 2.50
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Dominant on raw probability; slimmer value margin.
Details
- J: Jack Tudor
- T: Christian Williams
- Trip: 2m7f25y
- Trainer RTF%: 22%
- Odds (≈ from IP): 7.14
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Longer price value in a small field.
Details
- J: Isabel Williams
- T: Evan Williams
- Trip: 2m5f137y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds (≈ from IP): 4.00
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Chepstow run reads well; AF value.
Details
- J: Theo Gillard
- T: Donald McCain
- Trip: 2m5f137y
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds (≈ from IP): 2.94
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Fav; narrow value margin (Fair).
Details
- J: Mr Jack Stenhouse
- T: Ryan Chapman
- Trip: 2m5f137y
- Trainer RTF%: 69%
- Odds (≈ from IP): 16.67
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Speculative each-way; AF by price.
Details
- J: Jack Tudor
- T: Christian Williams
- Trip: 2m7f25y
- Trainer RTF%: 22%
- Odds (≈ from IP): 5.00
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Chasing win backs up; AF at current tissue.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: Jamie Snowden
- Trip: 2m7f25y
- Trainer RTF%: 69%
- Odds (≈ from IP): 3.03
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Holds strongest probability; slim AF.
Details
- J: Isabelle Ryder
- T: Alexandra Dunn
- Trip: 2m7f25y
- Trainer RTF%: 87%
- Odds (≈ from IP): 12.50
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Each-way angle; AF on our numbers.
Details
- J: Mr Edward Vaughan
- T: Alan Jones
- Trip: 2m2f111y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds (≈ from IP): 2.86
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
Back with successful yard/rider; AF.
Details
- J: Mr Richard Upton
- T: Joe Tizzard
- Trip: 2m2f111y
- Trainer RTF%: 31%
- Odds (≈ from IP): 2.63
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
Narrow fav; pricing reads Fair.
Details
- J: Mr Joshua Newman
- T: Kayley Woollacott
- Trip: 2m2f111y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds (≈ from IP): 9.09
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
Longer price plays into AF value.
Details
- J: Ciaran Gethings
- T: Jane Williams
- Trip: 1m5f38y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds (≈ from IP): 4.00
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Stable targets this; AF edge from tissue.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White
- Trip: 1m5f38y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds (≈ from IP): 5.56
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Fair-to-Above Fair; respected yard.
Details
- J: Sean Houlihan
- T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White
- Trip: 1m5f38y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds (≈ from IP): 8.33
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Third string with AF pricing cushion.
Analysis
Challenger qualifier over 2m7f25y; ideal 106% book, NP 31% vs IP 29%, small-field dynamics and workable mark. “Run-that-wins” scenario aligns best.