Bet Smart & Win — Fairyhouse Race Preview
Tuesday 04 November 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Paddy Hanlon
- T: John Joseph Hanlon
- Trip: 3m82y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 103%
Analysis: Top-rated and fitter than key rivals; sets the standard.
Details
- J: Keith Donoghue
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trip: 3m82y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 103%
Analysis: Forecast favourite; strong claims if tidier at his fences.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 3m82y
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 103%
Analysis: Solid form for the grade; powerful yard angle.
Details
- J: Philip Donovan
- T: Mrs Y Dunleavy
- Trip: 3m82y
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis: Recent win; fewer questions than most.
Details
- J: Paddy Hanlon
- T: John Joseph Hanlon
- Trip: 3m82y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis: Well treated on best; shrewd yard.
Details
- J: Aidan Kelly
- T: Liam P Cusack
- Trip: 3m82y
- Trainer RTF%: 17%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis: In good heart; competitive mark.
Details
- J: Cian Quirke
- T: Andrew Slattery
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis: Flat winner; knocking on the door over hurdles.
Details
- J: Shane O’Callaghan
- T: T M Walsh
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis: Two promising runs; major player.
Details
- J: Sam Ewing
- T: Ian Patrick Donoghue
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 31%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis: Experience angle; should be thereabouts.
Details
- J: Conor Stone-Walsh
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trip: 2m1f30y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis: Well-bred; top yard; most interesting.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m1f30y
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis: Powerful stable; obvious respect.
Details
- J: Richard Deegan
- T: Declan Queally
- Trip: 2m1f30y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis: Race-fit and arrives off a win.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis: Best form on offer; big chance.
Details
- J: Mark Walsh
- T: T M Walsh
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis: Only runner with OR; race-fit; key player.
Details
- J: Austin Gordon
- T: Mark Fahey
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis: Shown ability; could outrun odds.
Details
- J: Mark Walsh
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m4f110y
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 95%
Analysis: Race-fit; sets a solid standard.
Details
- J: Sean O’Keeffe
- T: Declan Queally
- Trip: 2m4f110y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 95%
Analysis: In excellent form; concedes weight.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m4f110y
- Trainer RTF%: 69%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 95%
Analysis: Top yard; key player.
Details
- J: Daniel King
- T: Shane Ryder
- Trip: 2m4f110y
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 104%
Analysis: Step up in trip suits; soft-ground form OK.
Details
- J: Shane Markey
- T: Ross O’Sullivan
- Trip: 2m4f110y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 104%
Analysis: Forecast favourite; arrives in good nick.
Details
- J: Cian Cullinan
- T: Conor O’Dwyer
- Trip: 2m4f110y
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 104%
Analysis: Unexposed; could be well-treated.
Details
- J: Tiernan Power Roche
- T: P J Rothwell
- Trip: 3m
- Trainer RTF%: 35%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 103%
Analysis: Recent course form; close on heavy.
Details
- J: Kieren Buckley
- T: Edward Buckley
- Trip: 3m
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 103%
Analysis: Forecast favourite; arrives in form.
Details
- J: Shane Markey
- T: Ross O’Sullivan
- Trip: 3m
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround: 103%
Analysis: Well-handicapped on best; shortlist.
Analysis
Top form credentials; powerful yard; tongue-tie first time. Maiden hurdle over 2m on soft-to-heavy suits. Back with confidence.
Details
- Race: 2:15 — Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com Maiden Hurdle
- Trip: 2m • Going: Soft to Heavy
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: n/a (forecast)
- Overround (race): 105%