Bet Smart & Win — Fakenham Race Preview
Wednesday 29 October 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Jack Quinlan
- T: Neil King
- Trip: 2m3y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: 10/11
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Fifth in a hot Grade 2 Aintree bumper in April, Storming George is a good prospect for novice hurdles this season.
Details
- J: Kielan Woods
- T: Alex Hales
- Trip: 2m3y
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: 5/2
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
North Of Richmond is another hurdling debutant to monitor closely in the betting.
Details
- J: Theo Gillard
- T: Donald McCain
- Trip: 2m3y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: 9/2
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
American Empire is the pick of the trio with jumps experience.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 2m59y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: 7/4
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Chasing debutant Secret Des Dieux runs this track well and might outclass this field if he jumps soundly.
Details
- J: Benjamin Macey
- T: Samuel Drinkwater
- Trip: 2m59y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: 2/1
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Won comfortably over C&D 12 days ago and is now 2-3 over fences; obvious contender.
Details
- J: Caoilin Quinn
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trip: 2m59y
- Trainer RTF%: 37%
- Odds: 7/2
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Triple chase winner in spring; made low-key return this month; this race is easier.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 2m3y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: Evs
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Zahra Dodville is interesting and showed some promise in her three runs in France.
Details
- J: Luke Scott
- T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
- Trip: 2m3y
- Trainer RTF%: 30%
- Odds: 2/1
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Manyana Blue has a pretty solid record in recent months and is taken to dominate from the front.
Details
- J: Caoilin Quinn
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trip: 2m3y
- Trainer RTF%: 37%
- Odds: 3/1
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Mystical Mabel is an unknown quantity but comes from a good stable.
Details
- J: Robert Dunne
- T: Tom Gretton
- Trip: 3m38y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: Evs
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Despite lacking fluency at Huntingdon most recently, it was a much better performance from Reforme.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Mickey Bowen
- Trip: 3m38y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: 2/1
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Karavomylos gets the vote in a trappy contest on his return from wind surgery.
Details
- J: Lilly Pinchin
- T: Emma-Jane Bishop
- Trip: 3m38y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: 7/1
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Ballygelly appeals most of the remainder.
Details
- J: Alex Chadwick
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 2m3y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: 5/2
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Keep It Cool is feared and James Owen often does well with his new recruits.
Details
- J: Daniel Sansom
- T: Seamus Mullins
- Trip: 2m3y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: 3/1
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Basilette had been threatening prior to her recent Stratford triumph.
Details
- J: Theo Gillard
- T: David Bridgwater
- Trip: 2m3y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 14/1
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
A chance is taken on Lusso Milan opening her account after a promising run last time.
Details
- J: Tom Bellamy
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m5f44y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 11/4
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Mavis Pike appeared to be in need of her first run of the season when making her chase debut at Uttoxeter.
Details
- J: Richie McLernon
- T: Neil Mulholland
- Trip: 2m5f44y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: 3/1
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Gata Ban was a winner when last seen over hurdles in the spring and is fancied to follow up on her chase debut.
Details
- J: Robert Dunne
- T: Noel Williams
- Trip: 2m5f44y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: 7/2
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Moviddy is feared most. Finally got off the mark over fences at Wincanton in March.
Details
- J: Freddie Gordon
- T: Matt Crawley
- Trip: 2m4f1y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: 13/8
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
The progressive Dartmouth Rose is taken to follow up her recent C&D win off 3lb higher.
Details
- J: Daniel Sansom
- T: Seamus Mullins
- Trip: 2m4f1y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: 5/2
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Jackeline is feared most. She returned with a solid effort at Chepstow and is another with obvious claims.
Details
- J: Shane Fenelon
- T: Mickey Bowen
- Trip: 2m4f1y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: 7/2
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Green Asset finished fourth beaten just over three lengths in the aforementioned contest and is expected to be competitive once again.
Analysis
The progressive Dartmouth Rose is taken to follow up her recent C&D win off 3lb higher. Jackeline is feared most. This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.