Bet Smart & Win — Fontwell Race Preview
Sunday 16 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Charlie Price
- T: Richard Hobson
- Trip: 2m 5f 135y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.6%
Analysis
CD winner who handles soft ground well; prominent style and solid jumping make him a strong Above Fair value in a winnable chase.
Details
- J: Freddie Gordon
- T: Chris Gordon
- Trip: 2m 5f 135y
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.6%
Analysis
Soft-ground winner stepping up in trip; reverting to fences should suit and he looks a solid Fair value contender near the pace.
Details
- J: Harry Kimber
- T: Robert Walford
- Trip: 2m 5f 135y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.6%
Analysis
Unexposed chaser whose pointing background hints at stamina; handicapping could be lenient if he jumps fluently on this circuit.
Details
- J: Rex Dingle
- T: Anthony Honeyball
- Trip: 2m 1f 162y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Sets the standard on soft-ground form and class drop, but the short price leaves him Below Fair value despite reliable jumping.
Details
- J: Tristan Durrell
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m 1f 162y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Well-bred hurdling newcomer for a powerful stable; profile suggests he can chase the favourite closely at Fair value.
Details
- J: Harry Bannister
- T: Warren Greatrex
- Trip: 2m 1f 162y
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Battle-hardened with consistent sectional figures; dependable type who often runs his race and offers Fair place value.
Details
- J: Freddie Gingell
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m 1f 162y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.0%
Analysis
Unexposed 4yo from the champion yard with strong recent sectionals; expected to improve again on this ground and shapes as a key Above Fair value angle.
Details
- J: Caoilin Quinn
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trip: 2m 1f 162y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.0%
Analysis
Proven CD winner who races on the pace; attractive mark and solid jumping make him a notable Above Fair value alternative.
Details
- J: Rex Dingle
- T: Ben Clarke
- Trip: 2m 1f 162y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.0%
Analysis
Arrives on the back of a win with strong recent sectionals; should be competitive again and rates a Fair value player.
Details
- J: Freddie Gordon
- T: Chris Gordon
- Trip: 3m 3f 149y
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109.9%
Analysis
Last year’s winner with proven C&D stamina; freshened for the repeat bid and fairly priced in a demanding staying chase.
Details
- J: Caoilin Quinn
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 3m 3f 149y
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109.9%
Analysis
Strong stayer with bold front-running style; robust sectionals suggest Above Fair value if allowed an early rhythm.
Details
- J: Lorcan Williams
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 3m 3f 149y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109.9%
Analysis
Back on track with a recent win and excellent staying sectionals; well treated if his jumping holds up and appeals as an each-way Above Fair play.
Details
- J: Freddie Gingell
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m 1f 162y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106.7%
Analysis
Costly recruit whose profile screams upside, but current odds slightly overstate his chance and rate him Below Fair value.
Details
- J: Harry Bannister
- T: Warren Greatrex
- Trip: 2m 1f 162y
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106.7%
Analysis
Point winner on heavy ground with plenty of stamina, but current market is tight enough to leave him marginally Below Fair value.
Details
- J: Lorcan Williams
- T: Jack Jones
- Trip: 2m 1f 162y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106.7%
Analysis
Already a hurdles winner with safe jumping; experience edge and price combine to offer Above Fair place value.
Details
- J: Mr Harvey Barfoot-Saunt
- T: Sam Thomas
- Trip: 2m 3f 104y
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.6%
Analysis
Lightly raced chaser for an in-form yard; strong enough sectionals last term to suggest he is a Fairly priced player off this mark.
Details
- J: Lorcan Williams
- T: Jeremy Scott
- Trip: 2m 3f 104y
- Trainer RTF%: 22%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.6%
Analysis
CD winner who enjoys the track and conditions; reliable jumper at a Fair mark with obvious claims.
Details
- J: Caoilin Quinn
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trip: 2m 3f 104y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.6%
Analysis
Soft-ground winner with proven stamina; if tidying up his jumping he is a Fair value player in a tight-knit field.
Details
- J: Freddie Gingell
- T: Joe Tizzard
- Trip: 2m 5f 164y
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Handicap debutant from a strong yard stepping up in trip; unexposed and fairly treated, with scope to improve on this ground.
Details
- J: Harry Kimber
- T: Richenda Ford
- Trip: 2m 5f 164y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Arrives in winning form with strong recent sectionals; stays well and looks fairly handicapped to run another big race.
Details
- J: Conor O’Farrell
- T: Neil Mulholland
- Trip: 2m 5f 164y
- Trainer RTF%: 26%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Stays well and often finishes strongly; consistent profile makes him a Fair-value each-way type in a competitive handicap.
Analysis
Ground conditions, trip and likely race shape all look ideal for Zaochen Enki, whose recent sectionals suggest further improvement to come. From the powerful Paul Nicholls yard with a useful claimer aboard and an NP edge over his current price, this is the “run-that-wins” scenario that aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence as the Nap of the Meeting.