Bet Smart & Win — Fontwell Race Preview
Sunday 26 October 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Tristan Durrell
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m1f162y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Above Fair value with NP > IP; fits the ideal profile for this small field.
Details
- J: Freddie Mitchell
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trip: 2m1f162y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Competitive profile; probabilities give Fair-to-Above-Fair edge.
Details
- J: Harriet Tucker
- T: Neil Mulholland
- Trip: 2m1f162y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Solid each-way type; NP>IP indicates value to hit the frame.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m1f162y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Clear top pick on probabilities; AF value with strong yard/jockey combo.
Details
- J: James Bowen
- T: Faye Bramley
- Trip: 2m1f162y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Main danger on the numbers; AF value and solid claims.
Details
- J: Freddie Mitchell
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trip: 2m1f162y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Form alternative to the unraced; value remains marginally AF.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 3m1f210y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Standout on NP; AF value and top connections — the one to beat.
Details
- J: Harry Kimber
- T: Robert Walford
- Trip: 3m1f210y
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Consistent danger; NP edge suggests value at current quotes.
Details
- J: Mr Sean O’Connor
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 3m1f210y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Profiles well for a placing; AF value on our lines.
Details
- J: Caoilin Quinn
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trip: 2m3f104y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Joint-top on probability; AF value with course suitability.
Details
- J: James Bowen
- T: Mickey Bowen
- Trip: 2m3f104y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Progressive chaser; AF value with strong recent figures.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Evan Williams
- Trip: 2m3f104y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Interesting outsider; jockey booking a positive — frame player.
Details
- J: Bryan Carver
- T: Harry Fry
- Trip: 2m1f162y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Dominant favourite; strong AF value with clear NP superiority.
Details
- J: James Bowen
- T: Warren Greatrex
- Trip: 2m1f162y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Clear second-best on probability; AF value retained.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: Oliver Signy
- Trip: 2m1f162y
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Likely improver; metrics support shortlist inclusion.
Details
- J: Kielan Woods
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m1f162y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Leads the field on NP; AF value and should prove hard to oppose.
Details
- J: Richie McLernon
- T: Faye Bramley
- Trip: 2m1f162y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Second on NP; AF value keeps him firmly in the mix.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m1f162y
- Trainer RTF%: 81%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Preferred for the frame among longer-priced options; AF edge remains.
Details
- J: Caoilin Quinn
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trip: 2m5f135y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Top pick; AF value with a likeable chasing profile.
Details
- J: Conor Ring
- T: Evan Williams
- Trip: 2m5f135y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Consistent type; NP shows he belongs on the shortlist.
Details
- J: Richie McLernon
- T: Neil Mulholland
- Trip: 2m5f135y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Close to #7 on NP; AF value and shortlist material.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m1f162y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Marginal probability leader; AF value with top connections.
Details
- J: Tristan Durrell
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m1f162y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Strong second pick; stable’s runners often well prepared first time.
Details
- J: Bryan Carver
- T: Harry Fry
- Trip: 2m1f162y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Completes the shortlist; figures suggest place claims.
Analysis
Strong AF value profile in the 3m1f210y chase (Cl3). Ideal Overround (111%), top yard/jockey, and best NP on our tissue. Back with confidence.