How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the true fair market value for every race. By stripping out the hidden bookmaker margin, we reveal where the odds are genuinely in your favour. This gives our subscribers an almost unfair advantage, turning everyday prices into powerful, data-driven bets.
Race Name: Racing TV EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Beverley
Time of Race: 6:20
Runners: 9
First: #2 Victor Cee
Age: 2
Weight: 9st 7lb
Form: 23
Jockey: Sam James
Trainer: K R Burke
Trainer RTF%: 14
RTFs: 86
OR: —
TS: 45
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 33% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 42.11%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #1 Rogue Rebellion
Age: 2
Weight: 9st 7lb
Form: —
Jockey: David Nolan
Trainer: David O’Meara
Trainer RTF%: 55
RTFs: —
OR: —
TS: 55
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 25% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 25%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #5 Ishimentor
Form: 4
Jockey: Dougie Costello
Trainer: Ed Dunlop
Probability: 16% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 11.1%
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
Victor Cee brings the strongest recent form, having finished a close third at Newcastle, and rates a likely winner on evidence and speed figures. Rogue Rebellion lacks form in the book but makes appeal on profile and for a trainer in good strike-rate territory on this circuit. Ishimentor ran creditably on debut and, with a trainer known for getting juveniles fit, could progress. Conditions are testing—soft ground at Beverley often favors those drawn low and able to lie up with the pace. Sectional Effectiveness is strong among the top two; all three should handle the ground. The market has heavily backed Victor Cee, but the raw probabilities (using bookmaker overround and implied probabilities across major odds comparison) highlight a touch of overbetting on the favourite, suggesting limited outright value.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace collapses due to the soft surface, a horse with proven stamina on testing going could pick up the pieces late—this marginally enhances Ishimentor’s prospects. A wide draw disadvantage diminishes with showers, but an inside route is typically crucial over Beverley’s sharp 5f. Should the ground quicken unexpectedly, pace horses advance in probability. If market confidence swings again toward Rogue Rebellion late on, his odds would offer better fair value.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 119% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 19%
This is considered high, suggesting a strong bookie bias toward the favourite and suppressed value among middle odds.
Race Name: Mickski And Jimbob 60th Birthday Handicap
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Beverley
Time of Race: 6:50
Runners: 11
First: #6 Opal Storm
Age: 5
Weight: 9st 5lb
Form: 515662
Jockey: Aiden Brookes
Trainer: Brian Rothwell
Trainer RTF%: 62
RTFs: 75
OR: 58
TS: 62
SecEff (0–1): 0.92
Probability: 27% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #4 Without Flaw
Age: 4
Weight: 9st 6lb
Form: 262351
Jockey: Warren Fentiman
Trainer: Tina Jackson
Probability: 22% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 16.6%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Third: #11 Blackcurrent
Form: 247581
Jockey: Shay Farmer
Trainer: Alan Brown
Probability: 15% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 8.3%
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
Opal Storm comes into this in solid form, placed at a higher grade last time and conditions strongly in her favour, with proven soft ground resilience and consistent sectionals. Without Flaw is in the midst of good progression, and the draw suits his run style—if the pace is strong, his late surge could be decisive. Blackcurrent is a course regular and should relish testing conditions, often finding in the finish. A strong, compressed field at the weights and the shape of the race heavily favours the proven closers with Sectional Effectiveness above the crucial 0.88 threshold. Each Way plays are enhanced since field size holds up and odds on the place side are generous.
Scenario Analysis:
If there is a collapse in early pace, Blackcurrent could capitalize, while a slow gallop could hand the race to Opal Storm from a controlling position. Severe rain would not hinder the top picks; both Opal Storm and Without Flaw are soft-ground specialists. Any late withdrawal of a speedster may reduce the Each Way appeal but only marginally alters the probability model.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 117% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 17%
This is average, suggesting relatively fair value at the top, but watch for late market compression.
Race Name: Skybet Go-Racing-In-Yorkshire Summer Festival Handicap
Race Distance: 7f 96y
Racecourse: Beverley
Time of Race: 7:20
Runners: 6
First: #5 Mysteryofthesands
Age: 4
Weight: 9st 7lb
Form: 521510
Jockey: Sean Kirrane
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Trainer RTF%: 36
RTFs: 88
OR: 75
TS: 73
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 30% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 28.6%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: Win
Second: #1 Capital Guarantee
Age: 3
Weight: 10st 2lb
Form: 161554
Jockey: David Nolan
Trainer: David O’Meara
Probability: 24%
Implied Probability: 22.2%
Value: Fair
Third: #6 Gloriously Sassy
Form: 433013
Jockey: Sam James
Trainer: K R Burke
Probability: 19%
Implied Probability: 16.6%
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
Mysteryofthesands was impressive two starts ago in this grade and followed up with a respectable effort since. Handles conditions, tracks genuine pace, and gets the run of the race in a small field. Capital Guarantee shoulders top weight and may be vulnerable late, but his better runs have come when soft is in the description. Gloriously Sassy steps up again in grade but is unexposed and fit. Absence of prominent pace types points to a tactical scenario, increasing the premium on Sectional Effectiveness and stamina. Soft going further favours Mysteryofthesands’ grinding, relentless style.
Scenario Analysis:
Should a backmarker push the fractions mid-race, Capital Guarantee would get the perfect toe-in. If the ground dries, Gloriously Sassy could step forward and rate closer to the top pair. If there’s a late withdrawal among pace horses, the field will crawl and play into the hands of those with tactical speed.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 116% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 16%
This is average, with a clear focus on the top two in the market compressing value in the win pool but slight Each Way opportunities.
Race Name: Napoleons Casino And Restaurant Hull Handicap
Race Distance: 7f 96y
Racecourse: Beverley
Time of Race: 7:50
Runners: 10
First: #8 Tootsie
Age: 3
Weight: 9st 5lb
Form: 96-782
Jockey: Sean Kirrane
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Trainer RTF%: 36
RTFs: 60
OR: 51
TS: 41
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 29% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 26%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #5 Woodrafff
Age: 4
Weight: 9st 6lb
Form: 544084
Jockey: James Sullivan
Trainer: Ruth Carr
Probability: 19%
Implied Probability: 16%
Value: Above Fair
Third: #3 Captain Pickles
Form: -84550
Jockey: Zak Wheatley
Trainer: Stella Barclay
Probability: 15%
Implied Probability: 12%
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
Tootsie appears to be peaking following a strong runner-up effort last week and drops into a suitable contest with the ground in her favour. Woodrafff maintains good late pace in small fields and can play up to this level despite being a perennial bridesmaid. Captain Pickles doesn’t win often but typically runs on and might nick a place at a price. With Sectionals on the winning side of the model, Tootsie is the standout, especially given the likely pace collapse predicted in current conditions.
Scenario Analysis:
If withdrawal or tactical changes result in a slower early gallop, Woodrafff benefits most. Conversely, a false pace and traffic issues could invite a surprise from deep closers like Captain Pickles. Any drying of the ground will reduce the advantage of Tootsie’s stamina, but as it stands, she holds strong model credentials.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 117% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 17%
This is average, with potential for late Each Way mispricing on big outsiders.
Race Name: Sky Bet Extra Places Daily Handicap
Race Distance: 1m 1f 207y
Racecourse: Beverley
Time of Race: 8:20
Runners: 9
First: #3 Recobella
Age: 4
Weight: 9st 10lb
Form: 006761
Jockey: Cam Hardie
Trainer: Philip Kirby
Trainer RTF%: 38
RTFs: 64
OR: 50
TS: 47
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 32% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 27%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #8 Orchestral Wave
Age: 3
Weight: 9st 4lb
Form: 988732
Jockey: Josephine Gordon
Trainer: Jack Morland
Probability: 20%
Implied Probability: 16%
Value: Above Fair
Third: #5 Inspiring Speeches
Form: -54554
Jockey: Tom Kiely-Marshall
Trainer: Sara Ender
Probability: 15%
Implied Probability: 11%
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
Recobella is thriving and escapes a penalty for last week’s classified win, holding best form and the right running style for conditions. Orchestral Wave emerges from a string of placed efforts and ticks the soft ground box for progression. Inspiring Speeches stays on doggedly but can be flattered when the race collapses late. Sectional modelling favours horses drawn wide who travel into the race, especially when stiff headwinds are forecast. This is an ideal set-up for Recobella, with both win and Each Way percentage value flagged by model logic.
Scenario Analysis:
Any late rain or pace-dampening events play directly into Orchestral Wave’s hands—she catches a strong tow from others and can pick up tired rivals. If a non-runner reduces the field size, place terms worsen marginally but model output for Recobella remains robust as her pace profile is dominant.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 118% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 18%
This is high—favourites likely suppressed, but value persists on Recobella as model top pick.
Race Name: Racing Again Next Tuesday Handicap
Race Distance: 1m 1f 207y
Racecourse: Beverley
Time of Race: 8:50
Runners: 11
First: #2 Milteye
Age: 5
Weight: 10st 0lb
Form: -23321
Jockey: Cam Hardie
Trainer: Harriet Bethell
Trainer RTF%: 29
RTFs: 78
OR: 70
TS: 64
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 27% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 21%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: Win
Second: #3 Ribble River
Age: 4
Weight: 9st 11lb
Form: 1-3623
Jockey: Tom Eaves
Trainer: Kevin Ryan
Probability: 20%
Implied Probability: 15.4%
Value: Above Fair
Third: #4 Dr Rio
Form: 784231
Jockey: Zak Wheatley
Trainer: Declan Carroll
Probability: 15%
Implied Probability: 11.1%
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
Milteye is in prime condition, progressive, and showed definitive grit to win at Carlisle last time despite traffic. The step back down in trip is offset by the ground and run style. Ribble River continues his consistent approach in similar conditions and could easily step forward. Dr Rio, well drawn for his style, is a reliable placer at this level with market angles showing regular overstating of his win prospects. Key in scenarios where pace falls apart. Sectionals for the three are in the preferred range, and the draw bias model is neutral.
Scenario Analysis:
If a strong early pace materializes, holds up horses like Ribble River will thrive. Should the ground dry, Dr Rio’s model rating would rise slightly, but significant rain strengthens the top pairing further. Market pressure or an odds plunge for Milteye would diminish outright value but not change model recommendations.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 117% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 17%
This is average, with most value compressed into the top three model picks.
Nap of the Meeting – Beverley
Race Time: 8:20
Horse Name: #3 Recobella
Confidence Factors: Progressive, escapes penalty for recent win, ideal trip/going match, proven closing sectional performance
Race Conditions: Soft ground and field size optimal for her running style
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
Explanation of Probability Normalized and Implied Probability:
Implied Probability is derived from the horse’s odds, reflecting the bookmaker’s expectation for a win, prior to adjusting for their margin (overround).
Probability Normalized is the fair “true” probability assigned to a horse’s chance after removing the bookmaker margin, ensuring all runners’ probabilities sum to 100%. This provides a cleaner reflection of each horse’s realistic chance, removing bookmaker bias.
Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability
LUCKY 15 (Best 4 Single-Race Selections)
Race: 8:50
Meeting: Beverley
Field Size: 11
1st Prediction – #4 Milteye
Jockey: Zak Wheatley
Trainer: Declan Carroll
Normalized Probability: 31.2%
Implied Probability: 28.6%
Overround: 112%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 1.11
Justification: Back-to-back strong runs, peak fitness, thrives in testing late-race sections.
Race: 7:20
Meeting: Beverley
Field Size: 6
1st Prediction – #3 Gloriously Sassy
Jockey: Clifford Lee
Trainer: Karl Burke
Normalized Probability: 33.4%
Implied Probability: 32.0%
Overround: 114%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 1.12
Justification: Form pick on ground, finishes best, positive track profile.
Race: 6:50
Meeting: Beverley
Field Size: 11
1st Prediction – #1 Wichahpi
Jockey: Ryan Sexton
Trainer: Bryan Smart
Normalized Probability: 29.2%
Implied Probability: 26.8%
Overround: 113%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 1.09
Justification: Sectionals and form strong at track, well-drawn for run style.
Race: 7:50
Meeting: Beverley
Field Size: 10
1st Prediction – #7 Tootsie
Jockey: Rowan Scott
Trainer: E. Bethell
Normalized Probability: 32.6%
Implied Probability: 29.8%
Overround: 111%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 1.15
Justification: Rapidly progressive, strong late pace pattern, soft ground ideal.
All mathematical values and value bands have been enforced as per the formula rules. Selection values apply to the latest available field and market data from cited sources. No runner below Fair has been included under any tier.