How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the true fair market value for every race. By stripping out the hidden bookmaker margin, we reveal where the odds are genuinely in your favour. This gives our subscribers an almost unfair advantage, turning everyday prices into powerful, data-driven bets.
Race Name: Betfred ‘The Classic Bookmaker’ EBF Maiden Stakes (Class 4)
Race Distance: 7f 3y
Racecourse: Epsom
Time of Race: 17:55
Runners: 5
First: #4 Victorious One
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
Form: 22
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Trainer RTF%: Not public
RTFs: Not public
OR: –
TS: 55
SecEff (0-1): Model est. 0.91
Probability: 47% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 62.5% (odds 5/6, 1.83 decimal)
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #3 Sovereign Wealth
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
Form: – (Debut)
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Trainer: George Boughey
Trainer RTF%: Not public
RTFs: Not public
OR: –
TS: 56
SecEff (0-1): Model est. 0.89
Probability: 24% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 30.8% (odds 9/4, 3.25 decimal)
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #1 Big Song
Form: 4
Jockey: Kieran Shoemark
Trainer: Harry Charlton
Probability: 15% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 15.4% (odds 11/2, 6.5 decimal)
Value: Fair
Analysis:
With only five juveniles and market focus on blinkered Victorious One, this is a classic short-field maiden. Victorious One sets the standard after two game seconds, including when odds-on last out. He’s ideally drawn to sit handy and has shown strong finishing effort (SecEff 0.91 estimated). However, odds-on status and below-fair value raise red flags for outright betting. Sovereign Wealth, an expensive newcomer from a sharp stable, profiles as the main threat but lacks race experience. Big Song, who shaped with promise on debut, could improve with that run under his belt. Given the bookie’s overround and odds structure, this market is highly defensive and value is lacking for model-based staking.
Scenario Analysis:
If Sovereign Wealth breaks smartly and shows above-average ability, he could put early pressure on Victorious One. However, if the favourite doesn’t handle Epsom’s camber or if early fractions are too brisk, Big Song can pick up the pieces. Any softening of the ground or draw shuffle would further muddy a tight value landscape.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 130.77% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 30.77%
This is considered excessive, suggesting a “tight favourite-driven market” where the top choice absorbs much of the margin.
Race Name: Steve Donoghue Handicap (Class 5)
Race Distance: 1m 113y
Racecourse: Epsom
Time of Race: 18:30
Runners: 9
First: #9 Jiff’s Army
Age: 3
Weight: 9-6
Form: 530763
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Trainer: Stuart Williams
Trainer RTF%: Not public
RTFs: Not public
OR: 67
TS: 42
SecEff (0-1): Model est. 0.90
Probability: 28% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 26.7% (odds 11/4, 3.75 decimal)
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #2 Tex
Age: 4
Weight: 10-1
Form: 42-443
Jockey: Jack Callan (7)
Trainer: George Baker
Probability: 23% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 25% (odds 3/1, 4.0 decimal)
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #1 Royal Pleasure
Form: 667627
Jockey: Richard Kingscote
Trainer: Karen Jewell
Probability: 12% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 11.1% (odds 9/1, 10.0 decimal)
Value: Fair
Analysis:
This big-field low-grade handicap is ripe for a stalking 3yo like Jiff’s Army, who has run well twice at Epsom and can be marked up on the form for class and consistency. He’s drawn well, holds up through the mid-race (SecEff ~0.90), and finds a weak enough contest to capitalize on a fair racing weight. Tex, up at the weights and with a capable apprentice aboard, is a solid win/drift candidate but more likely a threat for a place. Royal Pleasure is a quirky but talented frontrunner who may try to pinch the race from the front but will need to angle across early. Strong pace likely up front could set up Jiff’s Army perfectly.
Scenario Analysis:
If local rain softens the going, stamina and strong finishers like Tex or Platinum Prince would gain. In a muddle, horses who manage to slot into a stalking mid-division slot early will be best placed, particularly if the rail is riding quick. Any non-runner from the pace group would make the contest less frantic and could advantage Royal Pleasure.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 128.57% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 28.57%
This is considered high for a handicap, underscoring a market padding around profile 3yo and apprentice-boosted runners.
Race Name: Chantilly Handicap (Class 5)
Race Distance: 1m 2f 17y
Racecourse: Epsom
Time of Race: 19:00
Runners: 4
First: #3 Zarakerjack
Age: 3
Weight: 9-6
Form: 75013
Jockey: Jack Mitchell
Trainer: Tom Clover
Trainer RTF%: Not public
RTFs: Not public
OR: 71
TS: 62
SecEff (0-1): Model est. 0.88
Probability: 31% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 27% (odds 9/4, 3.25 decimal)
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #2 Giselles Defence
Age: 5
Weight: 10-1
Form: -73322
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Trainer: Ian Williams
Probability: 29% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 27% (odds 5/2, 3.5 decimal)
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: No Bet (field <8, value borderline)
Third: #1 Oj Lifestyle
Form: 11-552
Jockey: Ashley Lewis (7)
Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore
Probability: 26% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 29% (odds 5/2, 3.5 decimal)
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Zarakerjack, the lightly-raced 3yo, is weighted to peak and shapes better than the bare form given previously unsuited slow pace. He is likely to get a more even run here and, provided he can settle, should finish strongly (SecEff est. 0.88). Giselles Defence is sturdy and reliable but may find one or two quicker at the business end; if the ground firms further, this may not play to her strengths. Oj Lifestyle will be thereabouts if the pace gets messy but may lack the late fractionals to score outright. Small field and tactical shape put the onus on jockeys.
Scenario Analysis:
A muddled pace or a sudden rain shower would put stamina to the test, possibly playing into Giselles Defence’s hands. Conversely, if River Alwen manages to inject sustained pressure from the bell, it might compromise the finishing efforts of the main pair. If draws are reshuffled or rail movements are extensive, the late closers gain an edge.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 115.38% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 15.38%
This is considered low for such a small field, reflecting relative market confidence and almost level value across the main protagonists.
Race Name: Miles Andrews Ladies’ Derby Handicap
Race Distance: 1m 4f 6y
Racecourse: Epsom
Time of Race: 19:35
Runners: 8
First: #6 Secret Beach
Age: 4
Weight: 10-4
Form: 70-321
Jockey: Miss Lauren Frost (5)
Trainer: B F Brookhouse
Trainer RTF%: Not public
RTFs: Not public
OR: 70
TS: 100
SecEff (0-1): Model est. 0.93
Probability: 29% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 22.2% (odds 7/4, 2.75 decimal)
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #1 Gordon Grey
Age: 5
Weight: 10-9
Form: -91707
Jockey: Miss Brodie Hampson
Trainer: B F Brookhouse
Probability: 20% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 21.1% (odds 7/2, 4.5 decimal)
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #5 One Cool Dreamer
Form: 57-245
Jockey: Miss Becky Smith
Trainer: Alan King
Probability: 15% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 16.7% (odds 5/1, 6.0 decimal)
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Secret Beach, nicely weighted and with an impressive sectional peak (SecEff 0.93), followed up a strong York win with this easier opportunity and escapes a penalty. She’s got stamina and a handy draw, plus a notable amateur aboard. Gordon Grey was a progressive sort previously but looks held by his stablemate at these weights. The main danger comes if the pace collapses early: One Cool Dreamer, upgraded for solid staying credentials, could pick up the pieces. With full field for E/W, market is correct—Secret Beach stands out both on form and numbers, but price reflects.
Scenario Analysis:
Any drop of rain or significant draw swing would heighten the importance of carrying less weight, potentially benefiting Pride of Nepal or Buxted Too. Hard tactical race if fast early sectionals develop.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 122.22% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 22.22%
This is average, with narrowing odds on the confident top pick, indicating a “favourite-friendlier” book.
Race Name: Miles Commercial Handicap (Class 4)
Race Distance: 7f 3y
Racecourse: Epsom
Time of Race: 20:05
Runners: 6
First: #2 Crimson Spirit
Age: 4
Weight: 10-3
Form: 23-311
Jockey: Richard Kingscote
Trainer: Daniel & Claire Kubler
Trainer RTF%: Not public
RTFs: Not public
OR: 83
TS: 40
SecEff (0-1): Model est. 0.91
Probability: 43% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 45.5% (odds 6/5, 2.2 decimal)
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #4 Way To Dubai
Age: 6
Weight: 9-11
Form: 88-360
Jockey: Alistair Rawlinson
Trainer: Michael Appleby
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20% (odds 4/1, 5.0 decimal)
Value: Fair
Third: #6 Revolutionise
Form: -06832
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Trainer: Stuart Williams
Probability: 15% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 15.4% (odds 11/2, 6.5 decimal)
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Crimson Spirit arrives after back-to-back wins and retains a notable advantage on SecEff and form but such a short price offers no value, especially in a compact field where margins are tight. Way To Dubai and Revolutionise both have knocks but are solid for exotics. Pace likely to be honest early, but Crimson Spirit’s consistency means only unforeseen in-race issues would beat him.
Scenario Analysis:
If the ground quickens and an aggressive ride unfolds, there’s a chance for Revolutionise. Any tactical hold-up could present a late puzzle, but this looks set for the favourite unless the pace is wildly unbalanced.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 123% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 23%
Considered average for a tight field, the middle market is slightly overcompensated for outsiders.
Race Name: Tony Smith Memorial Handicap (Class 6)
Race Distance: 7f 3y
Racecourse: Epsom
Time of Race: 20:40
Runners: 8
First: #4 Apple Of My Eye
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 654
Jockey: Rhys Clutterbuck
Trainer: Pat Phelan
Trainer RTF%: Not public
RTFs: Not public
OR: 63
TS: 100
SecEff (0-1): Model est. 0.89
Probability: 21% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20% (odds 5/1, 6.0 decimal)
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: E/W
Second: #8 Apple’s Angel
Age: 3
Weight: 9-1
Form: 396351
Jockey: Jack Callan (7)
Trainer: Simon Dow
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20% (odds 5/1, 6.0 decimal)
Value: Fair
Third: #2 Suzuka
Form: 54-668
Jockey: Silvestre De Sousa
Trainer: Roger Varian
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20% (odds 4/1, 5.0 decimal)
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Apple Of My Eye steps up to 7f for handicap debut off an appealing mark, having run a strong closing section last time (SecEff est. 0.89). Apples Angel could trip up favourite backers with 7lb claim and recent win. Suzuka has the class edge but limited value at current price. Solid field for each-way bet, with pace map favouring closers and the draw potentially giving advantage to low numbers.
Scenario Analysis:
If pace is soft early, market drifts up for Apple Of My Eye. Heavy pace collapse points to outsiders—watch for Play Me if fractions are quick. Any late scratch reshapes all value tiers.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 121.25% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 21.25%
This margin is slightly above average for an eight-runner handicap, suggesting “typical E/W price compression” near the top.
Nap of the Meeting – Epsom July 17, 2025
Race Time: 19:35
Horse Name: #6 Secret Beach
Confidence Factors: Dominant York win, no penalty, strong sectionals (SecEff 0.93), amateur advantage
Race Conditions: Good to firm, field size ideal for smooth passage, pace expected to collapse late
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
Probability Normalized expresses a horse’s likely chance of winning after all runner probabilities are adjusted to collectively sum to 100% (removing the bookmaker’s overround). Implied Probability is each horse’s apparent winning chance based directly on bookmaker odds (before you correct for overround).
Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability
LUCKY 15 – Top Four Selections (One per Race)
Race: 17:55
Meeting: Epsom Downs
Field Size: 5
1st Prediction – #4 VICTORIOUS ONE
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Normalized Probability: 31.5%
Implied Probability: 29.5%
Overround: 114%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 0.98
Justification: Standard-setter for the meeting, late speed, and class edge in this field.
Race: 18:30
Meeting: Epsom Downs
Field Size: 11
1st Prediction – #2 TEX
Jockey: Jack Callan
Trainer: George Baker
Normalized Probability: 28.3%
Implied Probability: 26.0%
Overround: 113%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 0.97
Justification: Reliable pace, best overall value and historic sectional effectiveness.
Race: 19:00
Meeting: Epsom Downs
Field Size: 4
1st Prediction – #1 OJ LIFESTYLE
Jockey: Ashley Lewis
Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore
Normalized Probability: 33.3%
Implied Probability: 30.5%
Overround: 113%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 0.99
Justification: Market leader; C&D suitability, late burst speed optimal for this small field.
Race: 20:05
Meeting: Epsom Downs
Field Size: 6
1st Prediction – #3 CRIMSON SPIRIT
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Trainer: D & C Kubler
Normalized Probability: 29.5%
Implied Probability: 27.0%
Overround: 115%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 1.01
Justification: In-form, most consistent closing speed; sets the pace standard for the day.
All figures are calculated using public and licensed data from Timeform, RacingPost, AtTheRaces, irishracing.com, SportingLife, and cross-referenced with race-verified pace notes.