How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the true fair market value for every race. By stripping out the hidden bookmaker margin, we reveal where the odds are genuinely in your favour. This gives our subscribers an almost unfair advantage, turning everyday prices into powerful, data-driven bets.
Race Name: Sporting Times Sri Lanka Apprentice Handicap
Race Distance: 1m2f17y
Racecourse: Epsom Downs
Time of Race: 5:50
Runners: 6
First: #2 His Finest Hour
Age: 4
Weight: 9-10
Form: 8-0P14
Jockey: Kaiya Fraser
Trainer: Ian Williams
Trainer RTF%: 13
RTFs: 4
OR: 74
TS: 60
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 31% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 27%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #6 Etretat
Age: 4
Weight: 9-4 (5ex)
Form: 476871
Jockey: Archie Young
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Trainer RTF%: 5
RTFs: 3
OR: 68
TS: 48
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 25% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 29%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #4 Risen Again
Age: 4
Weight: 9-7
Form: 525143
Jockey: Christian Howarth
Trainer: Alice Haynes
Trainer RTF%: 8
RTFs: 2
OR: 71
TS: 45
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 15%
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
His Finest Hour is ideally positioned to track the lead, benefitting from a likely solid pace. Sectional effectiveness and trainer form point to a top effort, with positive apprentice booking weighting toward value. Etretat, running under a penalty, rates as the main threat. Risen Again’s early speed could result in a placing if dominant early, but His Finest Hour ticks every box. Carnival Day and Bearaway shape more as minor threats. Overall, the market’s compressed around the right runners, but His Finest Hour remains the standout value.
Scenario Analysis:
A slowly run race boosts Etretat’s finishing prospects, but only adverse rain or unexpected tactical changes lower His Finest Hour’s chance significantly. On rain-hit turf, Risen Again edges into the winner scenario.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 119% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 19%
This is considered high, with most of the value compressed into the top two in the market.
Race Name: Sporting Times Sri Lanka EBF Restricted Novice Stakes
Race Distance: 7f3y
Racecourse: Epsom Downs
Time of Race: 6:25
Runners: 6
First: #1 Hengroin
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
Form: 427
Jockey: Jason Watson
Trainer: Owen Burrows
Trainer RTF%: 20
RTFs: 6
OR: —
TS: 75
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 40% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 45%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #3 Norfolk Blue
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
Form: 82
Jockey: Brandon Wilkie
Trainer: William Knight
Trainer RTF%: 10
RTFs: 2
OR: —
TS: 61
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 32% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 40%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #5 Parole Officer
Age: 2
Weight: 9-5
Form: 62
Jockey: Hector Crouch
Trainer: S Woods
Trainer RTF%: 9
RTFs: 2
OR: —
TS: 53
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 12% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 13%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
A small field with a dominant front pair in Hengroin and Norfolk Blue. Sectionals underline Hengroin as the standout, but with odds-on prices, there’s simply no value and the overround is among the highest of the night. Parole Officer could outstay tired rivals if the tempo collapses. In most scenarios, the first two dominate unless significant ground changes occur.
Scenario Analysis:
Slower fractions or a speed duel softening up both leaders could let a less-exposed outsider sneak a place, but the overall profile favours Hengroin and Norfolk Blue bar mishaps.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 120% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 20%
This is considered excessive, typical for short-runner, strong favourite-driven contests.
Race Name: Sporting Times Sri Lanka Handicap
Race Distance: 1m4f6y
Racecourse: Epsom Downs
Time of Race: 7:00
Runners: 6
First: #4 King’s Castle
Age: 8
Weight: 9-0
Form: 95/711
Jockey: Taryn Langley
Trainer: David Simcock
Trainer RTF%: 16
RTFs: 5
OR: 66
TS: 56
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 28% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 50%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #1 Azahara Palace
Age: 5
Weight: 9-9
Form: 32-308
Jockey: Hector Crouch
Trainer: Hughie Morrison
Trainer RTF%: 9
RTFs: 3
OR: 75
TS: 63
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 24% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 23%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #3 Woodstock City
Age: 5
Weight: 9-6
Form: 742834
Jockey: Rhys Clutterbuck
Trainer: Ian Williams
Trainer RTF%: 13
RTFs: 4
OR: 72
TS: 60
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 14%
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
King’s Castle’s hat-trick bid dominates the market, but the odds are simply too short even allowing for recent progression. Azahara Palace is healthy value for those seeking to oppose the favourite, matching well on sectionals and efficiency. Woodstock City relishes quick ground, and is one for exotics. Model implies this market is heavily skewed in favour of the favourite with playable alternatives in the value band.
Scenario Analysis:
A slow early gallop or change in ground could swing it to Woodstock City; brisk fractions favour Azahara Palace. Unless King’s Castle regresses, he’s the one to beat, but not at this price.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 117% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 17%
A typical figure for a race with a strong favourite, suggesting secondary horses are worth scrutinizing for wagers.
Race Name: British EBF Fifinella Fillies’ Handicap
Race Distance: 1m113y
Racecourse: Epsom Downs
Time of Race: 7:30
Runners: 4
First: #1 Brielle
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 321
Jockey: Jason Watson
Trainer: David O’Meara
Trainer RTF%: 14
RTFs: 6
OR: 82
TS: 47
SecEff (0–1): 0.93
Probability: 32% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 30%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #4 Pink Azalea
Age: 3
Weight: 9-0
Form: 7-9011
Jockey: Jack Dace
Trainer: John & Sean Quinn
Trainer RTF%: 11
RTFs: 2
OR: 73
TS: 44
SecEff (0–1): 0.92
Probability: 28% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 30%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #2 Revelance
Age: 3
Weight: 9-4
Form: 72-1
Jockey: Hector Crouch
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Trainer RTF%: 13
RTFs: 3
OR: 77
TS: 70
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 23% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 30%
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Though only four runners line up, Brielle’s run style and superior sectionals make her difficult to oppose. Pink Azalea, while red-hot, may not get the tactical battle her way this time. Revelance rates next best if the pair above falter for any reason. At current prices only Brielle qualifies as a potential win play by model or bookmaker margin.
Scenario Analysis:
Run at a strong gallop, Brielle is even more solid. If they dawdle early, either Pink Azalea or Revelance could mug her with a change of tactics, but model leans to Brielle regardless.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 114% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 14%
Relatively low for a four-runner field, but small field means few each-way or value options.
Race Name: Sri Lanka Paradise Island Handicap
Race Distance: 7f3y
Racecourse: Epsom Downs
Time of Race: 8:00
Runners: 9
First: #1 Uncle Simon
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 0-642
Jockey: Rhys Clutterbuck
Trainer: Jack Morland
Trainer RTF%: 5
RTFs: 2
OR: 65
TS: 44
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 31% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 29%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #5 Miakoda
Age: 3
Weight: 9-5
Form: 596421
Jockey: Pat Cosgrave
Trainer: James Owen
Trainer RTF%: 13
RTFs: 3
OR: 61
TS: 60
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 23% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 22%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #4 Graduated
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: -49343
Jockey: Gina Mangan
Trainer: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
Trainer RTF%: 7
RTFs: 2
OR: 64
TS: 48
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 14% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 13%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Uncle Simon is trending up and primed for a breakthrough, especially with the draw lending itself to optimal coverage and tactical positioning. Miakoda follows as steady, while Graduated’s reliability suggests more place claims than win prospects. This is a competitive, open 3yo handicap but value is available if supporting proven finishers.
Scenario Analysis:
A rain-affected track raises the profile of stayers like Graduated, while a strong run race keeps Uncle Simon as the clear, model-backed pick.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 116% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 16%
Acceptable for midweek handicaps, presenting some legitimate win opportunities near the head of the market.
Race Name: Visit Sri Lanka Handicap
Race Distance: 6f3y
Racecourse: Epsom Downs
Time of Race: 8:30
Runners: 8
First: #1 Muscika
Age: 11
Weight: 10-0
Form: 451963
Jockey: Jason Watson
Trainer: David O’Meara
Trainer RTF%: 14
RTFs: 6
OR: 68
TS: 47
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 29% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 27%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #2 Twirler
Age: 4
Weight: 9-10
Form: 648631
Jockey: Tommie Jakes
Trainer: Michael Attwater
Trainer RTF%: 11
RTFs: 2
OR: 64
TS: 50
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 25% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 27%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #3 Simply Blue
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: -80742
Jockey: Connor Planas
Trainer: David Loughnane
Trainer RTF%: 12
RTFs: 3
OR: 67
TS: 47
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 22%
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Veteran Muscika’s durable consistency and excellent late fractions make him still a real force at this level. Twirler is capable of making all, but this is a deeper race. Simply Blue’s odds are too short for his win chance, given current sectionals and value. Each-way possibilities exist down the field, but Muscika is clearly the model pick.
Scenario Analysis:
If the race is run hard, Muscika can thread through late and take advantage. Should it be steadily run, front-runners get a boost.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 117% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 17%
Moderate overround—value mostly found at the sharp end.
Nap of the Meeting – Epsom Downs
Race Time: 8:00
Horse Name: #1 Uncle Simon
Confidence Factors: Dominant recent form, improving with every run, strongest projected late sectionals, advantageous draw; unexposed in 3yo handicaps.
Race Conditions: Good ground and pace makeup well-suited—should get an ideal trip.
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
Probability (Normalized) & Implied Probability Explanation
Implied Probability is calculated directly from a horse’s odds and reflects the bookmaker’s estimated chance of winning (including their profit margin). Normalized Probability (Fair Probability) strips this margin out and redistributes probabilities so the race adds to 100%, showing the true market value for each runner.
Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability