How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the true fair market value for every race. By stripping out the hidden bookmaker margin, we reveal where the odds are genuinely in your favour. This gives our subscribers an almost unfair advantage, turning everyday prices into powerful, data-driven bets.
Race Name: Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap
Race Distance: 1m53y
Racecourse: Leicester
Time of Race: 5:30
Runners: 9
First: #1 Currahee
Age: 3
Weight: 10-1
Form: 60-571
Jockey: Marco Ghiani
Trainer: Stuart Williams
Trainer RTF%: 52
RTFs: 62
OR: 61
TS: 46
SecEff (0–1): 0.89 (est)
Probability: 38% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 36%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #4 Lambournghini
Age: 3
Weight: 9-5
Form: 702411
Jockey: Joe Leavy
Trainer: David Evans
Trainer RTF%: 55
RTFs: 63
OR: 51
TS: 42
SecEff (0–1): 0.89 (est)
Probability: 21% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 25%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: SecEff Only
Bet Type: Each Way
Third: #6 Pretty Spirited
Form: 5-2454
Jockey: Alec Voikhansky
Trainer: Kevin Frost
Probability: 15% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 12%
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
Currahee has taken a notable step forward since joining Stuart Williams and impressed last week with a front-end performance on similar ground. With the highest Official Rating (OR) and a penalty, he shapes as a reliable pace-setter and may again enjoy a tactical edge. Lambournghini is a consistent improver, targeting a third straight win, and should be prominent throughout, with well-managed sectionals. Pretty Spirited remains a win shy but keeps posting reliable efforts and is arguably well-handicapped based on recent form cycles. With the ground riding just on the soft side, proven stamina is at a premium and may hinder those reliant on a turn of foot. The weights and field size look set for a solid gallop rather than a messy affair.
Scenario Analysis:
Should the ground worsen, Lambournghini could improve further with stamina to the fore, while an even truer pace could bring Pretty Spirited into each-way contention late. If Currahee fails to dominate early or is forced wide from the draw, the value in following Lambournghini as a mid-pack pouncer rises.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 113% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 13%
This is considered average, suggesting a typically shaped mid-market spread with a clear favourite and some air in middle/outsider odds.
Race Name: British EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Leicester
Time of Race: 6:00
Runners: 7
First: #6 Star Of Mali
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 3
Jockey: Neil Callan
Trainer: James Tate
Trainer RTF%: 57
RTFs: 77
OR: —
TS: 69
SecEff (0–1): 0.90 (est)
Probability: 38% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 29%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #3 In The City
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 9-232
Jockey: Charles Bishop
Trainer: Warren Greatrex
Trainer RTF%: 62
RTFs: 86
OR: 75
TS: 44
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 33% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 34%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #5 Our Planet
Form: 6-2355
Jockey: Callum Shepherd
Trainer: Michael Keady
Probability: 16% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 18%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Star Of Mali posted a solid debut third behind In The City at Nottingham and is expected to improve on that educational run. He rates as likeliest to handle the little cut in the ground and possesses speed figures consistent with a strong 2-year-old. In The City has been consistent in defeat but may lack a finishing burst for this sharper 5f. Our Planet keeps posting respectable speed ratings, though repeated chances suggest he may be one for minor money again. The market rates Star Of Mali as the fastest improver, with stable and jockey combination in red-hot form. Pace drawn towards the stands’ side should assist those handy.
Scenario Analysis:
If early speed comes from a different sector (inside rail bias), In The City might reverse form with Star Of Mali, but otherwise, the straight track and softish ground magnify natural pace, with Star Of Mali best positioned to capitalize.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 116% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 16%
This is a tight, favourite-driven market with progressive types drawing in the money.
Race Name: Join Racing TV Today Fillies’ Handicap
Race Distance: 1m3f179y
Racecourse: Leicester
Time of Race: 6:30
Runners: 8
First: #6 Solar Pass
Age: 3
Weight: 9-0
Form: 72-142
Jockey: Callum Hutchinson
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Trainer RTF%: 72
RTFs: 77
OR: 69
TS: 50
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 27% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 25%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #4 Word Of Mouth
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
Form: 6-5442
Jockey: Daniel Muscutt
Trainer: James Ferguson
Trainer RTF%: 41
RTFs: 75
OR: 72
TS: 45
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 20% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 19%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: SecEff Only
Bet Type: Each Way
Third: #2 Aiming High
Form: 313464
Jockey: Callum Shepherd
Trainer: David Simcock
Probability: 15% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 13%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Solar Pass appears progressive, and his latest close second at Windsor on similar ground stamps him as the one to beat, especially if sitting handy from the inside draw. Word Of Mouth is knocking on the door after a narrow defeat at Hamilton and should get the desired gallop to attack late. Aiming High, although exposed, is consistent and likely to fill out the places. With only eight runners, place terms are just met for each-way betting, and the field seems top-heavy in quality. The pace setup suggests Solar Pass and Word Of Mouth could dominate, with late closers reliant on some luck.
Scenario Analysis:
Should the field go slow early, Aiming High could have the tactical speed to capitalize. If, as expected, there’s a genuine pace, the progressive fillies, Solar Pass and Word Of Mouth, are favoured by the model.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 115% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 15%
This is considered average, with a focus on top three in market.
Race Name: Family Sunday 10th August Book Now Handicap
Race Distance: 1m2f
Racecourse: Leicester
Time of Race: 7:00
Runners: 12
First: #6 Sansanetti
Age: 3
Weight: 9-5
Form: 50-911
Jockey: Pat Cosgrave
Trainer: Stuart Williams
Trainer RTF%: 48
RTFs: 57
OR: 54
TS: 46
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 31% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 29%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #8 Orchestral Wave
Age: 3
Weight: 9-4
Form: 988732
Jockey: Josephine Gordon
Trainer: Jack Morland
Trainer RTF%: 48
RTFs: 63
OR: 53
TS: 11
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 16%
Value: Fair
Criteria: SecEff Only
Bet Type: Each Way
Third: #3 Free Pic
Form: 760702
Jockey: Paul Mulrennan
Trainer: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith
Probability: 12% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 14%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Sansanetti has thrived since stepping up to middle distances and is seeking a third consecutive handicap win. His stamina edge should be pivotal here, and his sectionals signal sustained power rather than a single burst, ideal on this surface. Orchestral Wave, just denied at Redcar, may be peaking and could offer late danger if the race gets strongly run. Free Pic is likely to get the right trip for a minor placing under a competent jockey. Large field increases incident risk but favours closers if early pace is excessive.
Scenario Analysis:
If the rain deepens the ground or the pace collapses, Orchestral Wave and Free Pic could improve their finishing position. Should Sansanetti manage to dictate or track a soft lead, he simply wins more often than the market suggests.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 118% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 18%
This is considered high, with extra margin added due to field size and competitive mid-market.
Race Name: British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Leicester
Time of Race: 7:33
Runners: 8
First: #5 Glamour Show
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 2-1536
Jockey: Charles Bishop
Trainer: Eve Johnson Houghton
Trainer RTF%: 80
RTFs: 82
OR: 77
TS: 69
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 30% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 28%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #6 Taygar
Age: 4
Weight: 9-6
Form: 832314
Jockey: Paul Mulrennan
Trainer: Michael Dods
Trainer RTF%: 77
RTFs: 86
OR: 71
TS: 57
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 12%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: SecEff Only
Bet Type: Each Way
Third: #1 Jettie’s Run
Form: 21-7
Jockey: Richard Kingscote
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Probability: 16% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 13%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Glamour Show stands out for consistency and speed, with recent form lines stronger than this class average. With tactical flexibility and a strong draw, she appeals as a potential value winner over an ideal distance. Taygar has posted some of the better sectionals in the field and holds a pace advantage if able to break cleanly. Jettie’s Run is respected for powerful late sectionals but may get caught behind rivals if pace sits up front, making her the safest for minor honours. Market is relatively efficient on the top three but gaps emerge in behind.
Scenario Analysis:
If track bias boosts those drawn lowest, Jettie’s Run could be closer to the leader at the turn and threaten. Otherwise, Glamour Show’s tactical speed, combined with Taygar’s finishing efficiency, shapes the 1-2.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 114% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 14%
This is average for a competitive fillies’ race, with only small inflation on the main market.
Race Name: Kube – Leicester’s Premier Exhibition Venue Handicap
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Leicester
Time of Race: 8:08
Runners: 10
First: #10 Toota
Age: 3
Weight: 8-13
Form: -72232
Jockey: Duran Fentiman
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Trainer RTF%: 69
RTFs: 75
OR: 55
TS: 43
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 26% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 28%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #4 Royal Accord
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 213215
Jockey: Marco Ghiani
Trainer: Stuart Williams
Trainer RTF%: 64
RTFs: 74
OR: 65
TS: 46
SecEff (0–1): 0.90 (est)
Probability: 20% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 17%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: SecEff Only
Bet Type: Each Way
Third: #7 Rumba Bay
Form: 164144
Jockey: Richard Kingscote
Trainer: David Evans
Probability: 14% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 15%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Toota is the right type for a sprint handicap at this grade, repeatedly knocking on the door and arguably ready for a breakthrough run. Royal Accord’s strong, versatile form at trips either side of this marks him as the main danger, especially if this becomes tactical. Rumba Bay shows enough on ratings to be a live each-way candidate, but consistency is a concern. There’s a premium on a strong start and holding a spot over the first two furlongs on this ground. With the field size, each-way terms are competitive, but the main edge comes from Toota’s model-aligned progression.
Scenario Analysis:
Should the middle pace collapse or the inside prove deeper, Royal Accord’s versatility moves him up. If drawn bias plays heavily to the stands’ side, Toota must avoid traffic.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 117% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 17%
Market is stretched on outsiders but relatively tight at the top, noting recent market moves supporting Toota and Royal Accord.
Race Name: Leicester Racecourse Ideal Self-Hire Wedding Venue Handicap
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Leicester
Time of Race: 8:40
Runners: 8
First: #2 Lord Roxby
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 451386
Jockey: Rowan Scott
Trainer: Nigel Tinkler
Trainer RTF%: 91
RTFs: 96
OR: 83
TS: 33
SecEff (0–1): 0.92 (est)
Probability: 28% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 29%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #3 Rogue Invader
Age: 3
Weight: 9-4
Form: 64-19
Jockey: Robert Havlin
Trainer: Alice Haynes
Trainer RTF%: 70
RTFs: 94
OR: 80
TS: 75
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 19% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Each Way
Third: #4 Watch And Shoot
Form: 3155
Jockey: Callum Shepherd
Trainer: George Scott
Probability: 16% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 13%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Lord Roxby has performed well in stronger fields and brings the highest recent Race To Form (RTF) metrics in the meeting, suggesting he peaks when it counts. Rogue Invader owns the pace map and could dictate or settle second, offering him an efficient route if the rail rides quick. Watch And Shoot tends to run well fresh and may be favoured by a mid-race injection of pace, but his overall rating is just below the top two. Form cycles and sectional effectiveness both favour the shortlist above.
Scenario Analysis:
A strong early gallop might see Watch And Shoot picking up mid-race but will also expose stamina doubts in several rivals. Should the race become very tactical, Lord Roxby’s consistency and tactical acceleration should win out.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 112% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 12%
This is considered low, suggesting the market is very competitive with efficient pricing at every level.
Nap of the Meeting – Leicester
Race Time: 5:30
Horse Name: #1 Currahee
Confidence Factors: Dominant recent form, proven over course and distance, strong sectionals last start
Race Conditions: Good to soft ground and a small field suit his prominent racing style
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
Normalized Probability refers to the probability of a horse winning after removing the bookmaker’s margin (overround), so all probabilities sum to 100%. Implied Probability is the chance of a horse winning as implied directly by its raw odds before accounting for the bookmaker’s margin.
Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability
Note: No Lucky 15 Data