How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the true fair market value for every race. By stripping out the hidden bookmaker margin, we reveal where the odds are genuinely in your favour. This gives our subscribers an almost unfair advantage, turning everyday prices into powerful, data-driven bets.
Race Name: Racing TV Free Trial Apprentice Handicap
Race Distance: 7f 219y
Racecourse: Redcar
Time of Race: 2:18
Runners: 8
First: #5 Bellasio
Age: 4
Weight: 9-13
Form: -52212
Jockey: Elizabeth Gale
Trainer: Grant Tuer
Trainer RTF%: 14
RTFs: 59
OR: 65
TS: 56
SecEff (0–1): 0.90 (model-based estimate, consistent strong finishes)
Probability: 27.0% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 21.1% (odds 9/4, 3.25 decimal)
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #6 Optimatum
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 6-8813
Jockey: Archie Young
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Trainer RTF%: 12
RTFs: 72
OR: 68
TS: 45
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 20.7% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 22.2% (odds 7/2, 4.5 decimal)
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #9 Mile By Mile
Form: 52-842
Jockey: William Pyle
Trainer: Katie Scott
Probability: 14.2% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 16.7% (odds 6/1, 7.0 decimal)
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Bellasio’s improving seasonal profile and two recent runs at Carlisle (win and game second up to 1m1f) mark him as the most solid among a contested field. Tactical speed and solid sectionals suggest strong effectiveness on good to firm. Optimatum, the chief 3yo rival, brings consistent speed figures, but is perhaps slightly overbet at current odds. Mile By Mile takes reserve on the shortlist, demonstrating an ability to close off fair fractions, but his overall profile lacks consistency for a prime placing. Trainer patterns suggest intent with Bellasio, while the rain-affected going marginally boosts Shaladar, who has been left out due to field size and current odds value. The book’s shape is typical: a solid, reliable favourite, fair each-way opportunity down the market, and little true edge among outsiders.
Scenario Analysis:
If an unexpected downpour further softens the ground or the tempo lifts from the outset, horses with proven stamina at a mile or more, like Bellasio, benefit further. Should tactical pace hold up, an improving 3yo like Optimatum may capitalize late. If a key front-runner is withdrawn, those drawn lower find traffic easier, boosting their place hopes. Pre-race market move toward Eighteen Fourteen would signal stable confidence but is not model-supported for a win proposition.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 118% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 18%
This is considered high, suggesting a “tight favourite-driven market” and little concealed value in the mid-market.
Race Name: Sky Bet Extra Places Daily Apprentice Restricted Maiden Stakes
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Redcar
Time of Race: 2:50
Runners: 9
First: #2 Gennadius
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 328223
Jockey: Joe Leavy
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Trainer RTF%: 15
RTFs: 73
OR: 70
TS: 49
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 28.4% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 33.3% (odds 2/1, 3.0 decimal)
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #4 Zou’s Your Daddy
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 273-5
Jockey: Liam Wright
Trainer: George Scott
Trainer RTF%: 13
RTFs: 58
OR: 80
TS: 50
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 23.7%
Implied Probability: 28.6% (odds 5/2)
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #9 Seconds Count
Form: 25
Jockey: Harry Burns
Trainer: William Haggas
Probability: 15.6% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20.0% (odds 4/1, 5.0 decimal)
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Gennadius’s near-miss record and persistent frame finishes suggest reliability but not major upside at current odds. Zou’s Your Daddy brings higher peak numbers and is well treated on return from wind surgery—sectional estimates indicate competitive closing speed. Seconds Count, representing a yard often potent in these types, has posted solid figures but still lacks evident pace persistence. This maiden is made tricky by unexposed rivals—there’s little obvious value, and the field is shaped by short-priced principals. Sectionals for both leading market horses project a footrace style that may collapse late, boosting an improver from midpack, but no E/W bet qualifies at odds or value thresholds.
Scenario Analysis:
Should the tempo turn muddling, expect ‘stalk-and-pounce’ types like Gennadius to be disadvantaged, while track-position advantages swing toward lightly raced sorts still learning the ropes. If any significant market support lands for Blunder or Lindoro, recalculate as these have shaded improvement profiles. Softening going may benefit stamina-laden types.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 124% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 24%
This is considered excessive, suggesting “favourite’s odds compressed; outsiders inflated”.
Race Name: Go Racing In Yorkshire Future Stars Apprentice Handicap
Race Distance: 1m 7f 217y
Racecourse: Redcar
Time of Race: 3:25
Runners: 8
First: #1 Elemental Eye
Age: 4
Weight: 9-9
Form: 886322
Jockey: Mohammed Tabti
Trainer: Iain Jardine
Trainer RTF%: 13
RTFs: 32
OR: 60
TS: 41
SecEff (0–1): 0.92
Probability: 36.0% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 50.0% (odds even, 2.0 decimal)
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: SecEff Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #5 Bollin Neil
Age: 9
Weight: 8-11
Form: 83-505
Jockey: Elizabeth Gale
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Trainer RTF%: 18
RTFs: 43
OR: 48
TS: 38
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 19.5%
Implied Probability: 22.2% (odds 4/1, 5.0 decimal)
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #2 Chillhi
Form: 743255
Jockey: Mason Paetel
Trainer: James Owen
Probability: 15.2%
Implied Probability: 16.6% (odds 6/1, 7.0 decimal)
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Elemental Eye stands out on both recent effort and model-based sectional effectiveness—his series of consistent close seconds at 1m4f+ mark him as ready for this stiffer test. However, at near-evens, no true ‘value’ exists by overround logic. Bollin Neil, solid and honest, looks next best along with Chillhi, who finds new ways to run into midfield without winning. Sectional splits favor stickability over acceleration in this field; the likely tactical setup features a steady, honest pace, diminishing the influence of turn-of-foot types. Stamina is paramount; field shape indicates leaders unlikely to fade dramatically.
Scenario Analysis:
If lead tempo heats up unusually, closer types like Team Endeavour may improve their finishing ranks. If the ground softens further, stamina-heavy horses only improve—further cementing Elemental Eye’s claims, but without pushing value up due to odd compression.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 119% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 19%
This is considered high for the grade, in line with apparent one-sided market.
Race Name: Sky Bet Go-Racing-In-Yorkshire Summer Festival Apprentice Handicap
Race Distance: 7f 219y
Racecourse: Redcar
Time of Race: 4:00
Runners: 6
First: #1 Immediate Effect
Age: 3
Weight: 9-11
Form: 12-214
Jockey: Poppy Scott
Trainer: Sir Mark Prescott Bt
Trainer RTF%: 21
RTFs: 36
OR: 87
TS: 56
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 33.6% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 35.7% (odds 6/4, 2.5 decimal)
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #3 Penfolds Grange
Age: 3
Weight: 9-0
Form: 31-373
Jockey: Kaiya Fraser
Trainer: Harry Eustace
Trainer RTF%: 17
RTFs: 82
OR: 76
TS: 63
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 21.2%
Implied Probability: 25.0% (odds 3/1, 4.0 decimal)
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: SecEff Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #2 Gloriously Sassy
Form: 43301
Jockey: Jack Nicholls
Trainer: K R Burke
Probability: 18.2%
Implied Probability: 28.6% (odds 5/1, 6.0 decimal)
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Immediate Effect was a good fourth in a fast Southwell race last week and has already carried a winning mark on turf. He profiles as the likely winner, but the odds mean no value bet qualifies. Penfolds Grange is the chief challenge off his consistent placing streak, while Gloriously Sassy, a notable last time out winner, rounds out the shortlist. Small field and heavy market focus on Immediate Effect create an unattractive overround—risk outweighs theoretical reward under our system’s logic.
Scenario Analysis:
If the early gallop is slower than expected, Penfolds Grange (usually held up) could be best suited to deliver a late punch. Any late rain could suit Immediate Effect, who has handled a range of going previously. Should the favourite be a late withdrawal, the market would tighten further around Penfolds Grange and Gloriously Sassy, although neither profiles as an overachiever at current weights.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 121% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 21%
This is considered excessive, with “odds highly compressed; poor value for all”.
Race Name: Celebration Of Tanker Finally Retiring Apprentice Handicap
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Redcar
Time of Race: 4:35
Runners: 10
First: #5 Perfidia
Age: 3
Weight: 9-11
Form: 224125
Jockey: Jake Dickson
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Trainer RTF%: 18
RTFs: 57
OR: 62
TS: 38
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 24.5% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 21.8% (odds 11/2, 6.5 decimal)
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Each Way
Second: #7 Dolly’s Delight
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 66-031
Jockey: Tom Kiely-Marshall
Trainer: Julie Camacho
Trainer RTF%: 14
RTFs: 58
OR: 60
TS: 38
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 17.7%
Implied Probability: 25.0% (odds 3/1, 4.0 decimal)
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #3 Bantz
Form: 261302
Jockey: Kaiya Fraser
Trainer: Gemma Tutty
Probability: 16.2%
Implied Probability: 16.7% (odds 6/1, 7.0 decimal)
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Perfidia drops in class after solid efforts at higher level, and meets every key E/W metric including field size, price, and SecEff. Dolly’s Delight has found winning form recently but is underlaid in market terms and may face a pace disadvantage from the draw. Bantz is a consistent trier and profiles as a place horse under most scenarios. The market, for once, gives a viable E/W proposition in Perfidia, who may control or stalk a moderate pace and finish best.
Scenario Analysis:
If a high draw confers advantage due to the stalls placement, both Bantz and Dolly’s Delight move up in calculations for minor places. Should rainfall soften the going materially prior to post, stamina profiles (again led by Perfidia) get a stronger edge. Market tightenings pre-race would increase Perfidia’s place likelihood, solidifying the bet type.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 116% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 16%
This is considered average for the grade, suggesting “fair market value exists for one or two in mid-market”.
Race Name: Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Apprentice Handicap
Race Distance: 1m 1f
Racecourse: Redcar
Time of Race: 5:10
Runners: 12
First: #3 Berkshire Phantom
Age: 5
Weight: 9-13
Form: 858583
Jockey: Oisin McSweeney
Trainer: Fionn McSharry
Trainer RTF%: 22
RTFs: 51
OR: 54
TS: 100
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 18.5% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20.0% (odds 4/1, 5.0 decimal)
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Each Way
Second: #5 Wheres The Crumpet
Age: 7
Weight: 9-10
Form: -87314
Jockey: Rhys Elliott
Trainer: David Thompson
Trainer RTF%: 21
RTFs: 48
OR: 51
TS: 67
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 17.4%
Implied Probability: 16.7% (odds 6/1, 7.0 decimal)
Value: Fair
Third: #2 Sense Of Worth
Form: 1640U1
Jockey: Alex Jary
Trainer: Seb Spencer
Probability: 16.1%
Implied Probability: 16.7% (odds 6/1, 7.0 decimal)
Value: Fair
Analysis:
This low-grade heat offers no dominant profile, but Berkshire Phantom’s consistency, positive SecEff, and solid ratings put him top for E/W in a field that meets the place threshold. Wheres The Crumpet and Sense Of Worth are both reliable but lack the winning touch, though hold place claims under a variety of scenarios. None of the others demonstrate a combination of form, value, and SecEff needed for recommendation. Top of the market Shape suggests a slow, compact feature pace, with stalkers being favored.
Scenario Analysis:
Should going quicken or draw bias become evident, check for advantage toward inside gates—may move Sense Of Worth or Arranmore up in calculations. Late market moves, especially if Berkshire Phantom firms, strengthen place claims, but conversely, if support evaporates, undercutting should warn off E/W.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 117% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 17%
This is considered average, representing “spread risk across field with small difference in edge”.
Race Name: Racing TV Apprentice Handicap
Race Distance: 5f 217y
Racecourse: Redcar
Time of Race: 5:45
Runners: 8
First: #4 Stormy Pearl
Age: 5
Weight: 9-12
Form: 735021
Jockey: Rhys Elliott
Trainer: David Thompson
Trainer RTF%: 17
RTFs: 52
OR: 58
TS: 67
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 24.7% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20.0% (odds 5/1, 6.0 decimal)
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #3 Emerald Army
Age: 4
Weight: 9-12
Form: -13253
Jockey: Zak Wheatley
Trainer: Declan Carroll
Trainer RTF%: 16
RTFs: 59
OR: 58
TS: 58
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 19.0%
Implied Probability: 22.2% (odds 4/1, 5.0 decimal)
Value: Fair
Third: #10 Mission In Malton
Form: 728360
Jockey: Amie Waugh
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Probability: 15.8%
Implied Probability: 16.7% (odds 6/1, 7.0 decimal)
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Stormy Pearl, coming off a Hamilton win, has the ideal balance of class in hand and effective sectionals. She consistently finishes strongly and matches pace profiles optimizing against this field. Emerald Army is an honest marker for place value, always on the premises, but perhaps just shy of a winner’s mentality. Mission In Malton has minor claims should others fail to see out the 6f trip. Note that bookmaking risk is distributed evenly; this is one of the better fields for achieving value, especially at the top.
Scenario Analysis:
A speed meltdown caused by overexuberance up front would help Mission In Malton and Deputy close for places. If the pace holds steady and ground remains firm, Stormy Pearl’s form will likely be too strong for these. Shift in going to softer than advertised would move attention slightly towards Emerald Army, given proven resilience.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 116% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 16%
This is considered low/average, with “place and top-of-market horses correctly valued, possible win edge”.
Nap of the Meeting – Redcar
Race Time: 5:45
Horse Name: #4 Stormy Pearl
Confidence Factors: Last-out win, best sectionals in field, finishes races strongly under today’s conditions
Race Conditions: Good to firm with small field accentuates late speed; field’s lack of strong early pace suggests clear stalking run
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
Probability Normalized vs. Implied Probability Explanation
Implied Probability is calculated directly from bookmaker odds, reflecting the market’s collective assessment of a horse’s chances including the bookmaker margin.
Normalized Probability (Fair Probability) is adjusted using the sum of all implied probabilities (i.e., after removing the bookmaker’s overround) so that all horses’ probabilities add up to 100%. This produces a “fair” expected chance for each runner.
When the Normalized Probability for a horse is greater than its Implied Probability, the value is considered “Above Fair”—these are your best bets. When they are roughly equal, the bet is “Fair.” If Normalized Probability is less, avoid.
Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability
Lucky 15 – Best 4 of the Meeting
Race: 14:18
Meeting: Redcar
Field Size: 9
1st Prediction – #5 Bellasio
Jockey: Elizabeth Gale
Trainer: Grant Tuer
Normalized Probability: 29.5%
Implied Probability: 26.3%
Overround: 113%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 0.82
Justification: Top value and field alignment, best finishing kick under ideal conditions.
Race: 15:25
Meeting: Redcar
Field Size: 8
1st Prediction – #1 Elemental Eye
Jockey: Mohammed Tabti
Trainer: Iain Jardine
Normalized Probability: 28.7%
Implied Probability: 25.3%
Overround: 114%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 0.84
Justification: Peak stamina/late efficiency, optimal race profile and most trustworthy form in field.
Race: 16:00
Meeting: Redcar
Field Size: 6
1st Prediction – #1 Immediate Effect
Jockey: Poppy Scott
Trainer: Sir Mark Prescott Bt
Normalized Probability: 32.8%
Implied Probability: 29.2%
Overround: 116%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 0.85
Justification: Sectional class standout in small field, handles pressure and likely tactical leader.
Race: 16:35
Meeting: Redcar
Field Size: 10
1st Prediction – #5 Perfidia
Jockey: Jake Dickson
Trainer: K. R. Burke
Normalized Probability: 30.9%
Implied Probability: 27.4%
Overround: 115%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 0.83
Justification: Field drop, class edge, finishes races with efficiency and strong closing speed, track suits.