How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the true fair market value for every race. By stripping out the hidden bookmaker margin, we reveal where the odds are genuinely in your favour. This gives our subscribers an almost unfair advantage, turning everyday prices into powerful, data-driven bets.
Race Name: Highbet £30 Free Sports Bonus Restricted Novice Stakes (Bands B, C And D)
Race Distance: 6f16y
Racecourse: Southwell (AW)
Time of Race: 5:50
Runners: 12
First: #7 Yes Waliim
Age: 2
Weight: 9-4
Form: 12-5
Jockey: Hector Crouch
Trainer: Richard Hughes
Trainer RTF%: (Model est.) 17
RTFs: (Last 14 days) 19
OR: —
TS: 64
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 27% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 22%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #11 Siouxpersonic
Age: 2
Weight: 8-13
Form: 10-7
Jockey: P J McDonald
Trainer: Edward Bethell
Trainer RTF%: (Model est.) 18
RTFs: (Last 14 days) 17
OR: —
TS: 44
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 14%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: SecEff Only
Bet Type: Each Way
Third: #5 Midnight Rodeo
Age: 2
Weight: 9-4
Form: 9-7
Jockey: Callum Shepherd
Trainer: George Scott
Probability: 14% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 13%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
A competitive novice featuring unexposed 2yos from powerful yards. Yes Waliim is well drawn, strong on sectionals for Richard Hughes, and already showed a useful turn of foot on debut under similar conditions; figures align with the model’s top chance. Siouxpersonic carries much less weight, matches or betters the field on SecEff and quickening splits, and is likely to be suited by these race conditions. Midnight Rodeo steps up after two educational runs and profile is forward enough for a minor placing. Trainers’ recent RTF% and form trends are solid. Given the novice nature, market can shift close to the off, but current ratings suggest value is with the top two.
Scenario Analysis:
Should tempo slow or the inside stalls underperform, Siouxpersonic’s lighter impost and finishing speed could become more decisive. Any negative pace bias or rain would slightly boost the claims of Midnight Rodeo for a placing, but advantage remains with Yes Waliim on balance.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 116% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 16%. This is considered average, suggesting a mildly favourite-driven market with some value at mid-odds for runners like Siouxpersonic.
Race Name: Golf And Gallop Novice Stakes
Race Distance: 7f14y
Racecourse: Southwell (AW)
Time of Race: 6:20
Runners: 11
First: #3 Key Of Magic
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
Form: 24-3
Jockey: William Buick
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Trainer RTF%: (Model est.) 18
RTFs: (Last 14 days) 21
OR: —
TS: 64
SecEff (0–1): 0.92
Probability: 29% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 25%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #9 Tierra Del Toro
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
Form: 1
Jockey: Hector Crouch
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Trainer RTF%: (Model est.) 17
RTFs: (Last 14 days) 17
OR: —
TS: 65
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 15%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: Each Way
Third: #5 May Angel
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
Form: 37-5
Jockey: Hollie Doyle
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Probability: 15% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 13%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Appleby and Buick combine with Key Of Magic, who rates highest for experience and closing speed. Beckett’s Tierra Del Toro was smart on debut and has pattern pedigree; SecEff slightly below Key Of Magic but still above field average. May Angel profiles as a solid placing option from an in-form yard. Market support is expected for Key Of Magic and Tierra Del Toro, and both clock best times in context. The draw and pace angle both favour the top pick.
Scenario Analysis:
If there is a mid-race burn-up or strong early fractions, May Angel could run on for a better place chance. Should the all-weather surface ride slower in the evening, Key Of Magic’s experience edge grows.
Overround Insight:
The race operates at 117% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 17%. This is slightly above average, with the market particularly protective around the two market leaders.
Race Name: Highbet Weekly Racing Rewards Club “Confined” Handicap
Race Distance: 1m13y
Racecourse: Southwell (AW)
Time of Race: 6:52
Runners: 12
First: #3 Eden Storm
Age: 5
Weight: 9-11
Form: 6-2-3-4-6-5-6
Jockey: Jack Nicholls
Trainer: Patrick Morris
Trainer RTF%: (Model est.) 16
RTFs: (Last 14 days) 14
OR: 57
TS: 61
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 26% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 22%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #8 Linear Spirit
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 39-5-4-6-3
Jockey: P J McDonald
Trainer: Marco Botti
Trainer RTF%: (Model est.) 17
RTFs: (Last 14 days) 18
OR: 61
TS: 73
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 17%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Each Way
Third: #2 Francesi
Age: 6
Weight: 9-13
Form: 19-3-5-3-7-8
Jockey: Ben Sanderson
Trainer: S Woods
Probability: 13% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 13%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Handicap for winless horses this year. Eden Storm is knocking on the door and has the class and consistency for this grade. Linear Spirit makes appeal as an improver and should be thereabouts with a good pace helping his hold-up style, especially given a high SecEff. Francesi is well treated at the weights and could compete for the frame. The pace looks honest, with few habitual leaders.
Scenario Analysis:
If pace collapses late, Linear Spirit could swoop past them all. Should they crawl and the race becomes tactical, Francesi could grind out a top three finish.
Overround Insight:
Operating at 120% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 20%. This is considered high, pointing towards bookies hedging in an open contest.
Race Name: Join Southwell Golf Club Handicap
Race Distance: 7f14y
Racecourse: Southwell (AW)
Time of Race: 7:25
Runners: 13
First: #13 Bold Suitor
Age: 8
Weight: 8-12
Form: 4-2-3-2-1-1
Jockey: Georgia Dobie
Trainer: Craig Benton
Trainer RTF%: (Model est.) 18
RTFs: (Last 14 days) 17
OR: 69
TS: 50
SecEff (0–1): 0.92
Probability: 26% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 21%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #8 Savvy Exchange
Age: 4
Weight: 9-3
Form: 47-73-064
Jockey: Robert Havlin
Trainer: S Woods
Trainer RTF%: (Model est.) 16
RTFs: (Last 14 days) 15
OR: 74
TS: 36
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 14%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Each Way
Third: #9 Lessay
Age: 4
Weight: 9-2
Form: 33-04-7-64-5
Jockey: Hector Crouch
Trainer: Ed Dunlop
Probability: 15% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 14%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Bold Suitor is in electric form, winning last two and doing so with something in hand, making him the class edge and with a top SecEff. Savvy Exchange appeals on back form at this track and should get the race run to suit from midfield. Lessay deserves a mention for solid consistency but lacks the finishing burst of the front two. Trainer performance and RTF% for Bold Suitor’s team add confidence.
Scenario Analysis:
A slow early tempo may diminish Bold Suitor’s edge, potentially enabling an in-form closer to mug him near the line. Should market favourite drift or rain materialize, Lessay may be suited even more.
Overround Insight:
Runs at 116% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 16%. Considered average and competitive, offering some value for those away from the favourite.
Race Name: Highbet Traders Treble Boosted Prices Handicap
Race Distance: 6f16y
Racecourse: Southwell (AW)
Time of Race: 8:00
Runners: 10
First: #4 Grenham Bay
Age: 5
Weight: 9-6
Form: 48-31-696
Jockey: P J McDonald
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Trainer RTF%: (Model est.) 17
RTFs: (Last 14 days) 18
OR: 72
TS: 49
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 27% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 23%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #7 Hierarchy
Age: 6
Weight: 9-4
Form: 25-32-39-2
Jockey: Saffie Osborne
Trainer: Jamie Osborne
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 15%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Each Way
Third: #2 Brazilian Rose
Form: 43-82-559-0
Jockey: Tommie Jakes
Trainer: Rebecca Menzies
Probability: 12% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 13%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Sprint handicap suiting those drawn to attack down the centre. Grenham Bay finds a good mark, ticks win percentage boxes, and performs best over this trip. Hierarchy rates a huge threat if reproducing his best sectionals. Brazilian Rose may pop into the three at a big price if finding early cover and getting luck in running.
Scenario Analysis:
Should the track ride slower or the field flatten the pace, Hierarchy could capitalize. If a significant track bias to the far side emerges, Brazilian Rose rates a steamer.
Overround Insight:
117% implied probability → 17% margin. Market tight at the top; sprint races often priced on recent win trends.
Race Name: Download the At The Races App Handicap
Race Distance: 1m6f21y
Racecourse: Southwell (AW)
Time of Race: 8:30
Runners: 11
First: #8 Rubellite
Age: 5
Weight: 9-4
Form: 111-13-113-13
Jockey: Barry McHugh
Trainer: Richard Fahey
Trainer RTF%: (Model est.) 20
RTFs: (Last 14 days) 16
OR: 56
TS: 43
SecEff (0–1): 0.93
Probability: 28% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 26%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #11 Captious Cantor
Age: 3
Weight: 8-3
Form: 31-08-533
Jockey: Hollie Doyle
Trainer: Ed Dunlop
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 15%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Each Way
Third: #1 Destinado
Form: 7-5-3-5-0-5
Jockey: Callum Shepherd
Trainer: James Owen
Probability: 14% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 15%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Rubellite stands out for sustained finishing power, strong SecEff, and a trainer in form. Captious Cantor’s profile as a late-maturing 3yo with mounting progress puts him right in the place frame, with Doyle’s booking a plus. Destinado has seen support, but looks vulnerable late against class finishers.
Scenario Analysis:
If rain comes and tapeta rides tacky, Captious Cantor’s lighter weight could be more influential. Should the field dawdle, Destinado could steal it with an enterprising ride.
Overround Insight:
115% implied probability → Margin: 15%. Margins are lower, showing a market more certain about the leading contenders.
Race Name: Highbet Sports Acca Boost Handicap
Race Distance: 1m3f23y
Racecourse: Southwell (AW)
Time of Race: 9:00
Runners: 8
First: #1 Frostmagic
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 32-59-121-3
Jockey: Tommie Jakes
Trainer: Ismail Mohammed
Trainer RTF%: (Model est.) 17
RTFs: (Last 14 days) 18
OR: 70
TS: 25
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 28% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 27%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #4 Liberty Bird
Age: 3
Weight: 9-4
Form: 13-79-0-04
Jockey: Callum Shepherd
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Trainer RTF%: (Model est.) 17
RTFs: (Last 14 days) 17
OR: 65
TS: 51
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 15% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 13%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Each Way
Third: #2 Everyoneknowsadave
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 2-41-95-94
Jockey: George Wood
Trainer: Jessica Macey
Probability: 13% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 13%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Frostmagic is the classic topweight improver, stayed on strongly last time, and meets all bet criteria. Liberty Bird has flashed promise, and a more forward ride could find him sneaking into the places. Everyoneknowsadave is solid but may lack the final gear for outright success.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace collapses or any strong headwind develops, Liberty Bird could sweep late. Should Frostmagic get a soft lead, he’ll be nigh-on unbeatable.
Overround Insight:
113% implied probability → 13% margin. Bookmakers are understandably tight in this short field, so best odds must be shopped for.
Nap of the Meeting – Southwell
Race Time: 8:30
Horse Name: #8 Rubellite
Confidence Factors: Dominant recent form, proven over course and distance, SecEff top of the field
Race Conditions: Standard going favours finishing kick; smaller field reduces traffic risk
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
Probability and Odds Explained
Probability (Normalized): This shows the adjusted probability of a horse winning, after removing the bookmaker’s margin. All normalized probabilities across the field sum to 100%, presenting the true “fair odds” as estimated by the model.
Implied Probability: This is the chance of winning derived directly from the bookmaker’s odds — it includes the bookmaker margin (overround), so the field totals more than 100%.
Essentially, Normalized Probability provides a level playing field for finding value bets, while Implied Probability reveals what the bookies are building into their prices.
Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability