How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the true fair market value for every race. By stripping out the hidden bookmaker margin, we reveal where the odds are genuinely in your favour. This gives our subscribers an almost unfair advantage, turning everyday prices into powerful, data-driven bets.
Race Name: Best Deals Online @thirskraces Book Now Apprentice Handicap
Race Distance: 7f 218y
Racecourse: Thirsk
Time of Race: 17:30
Runners: 7
First: #2 Atmosphere
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 75413
Jockey: Jack Callan
Trainer: Richard Spencer
Trainer RTF%: 33
RTFs: 16
OR: 68
TS: 16
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 41% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 44%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #1 Miss Yorkshire
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 2-32
Jockey: Kaiya Fraser
Trainer: Gemma Tutty
Trainer RTF%: 58
RTFs: 51
OR: 70
TS: 51
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 27% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 26%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Third: #6 Shielas Well
Form: 464213
Jockey: Elizabeth Gale
Trainer: Grant Tuer
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 18%
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
A tightly-knit field, with Atmosphere having solid recent form but priced aggressively, giving little value. Miss Yorkshire, stepping up in trip on her handicap debut, fits the profile of a “big improver” and is well supported by her trainer/jockey combination. Sectional effectiveness in the leading trio is strong, but Atmosphere is priced below fair and risks being overbet. Shielas Well is progressive and holds solid place credentials, especially if the pace collapses late.
Scenario Analysis:
A strong early pace from Flamborough Head may advantage closers like Shielas Well. Any rain or draw bias benefiting low numbers increases Miss Yorkshire’s edge. If the field dawdles, the favourite could get first run.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 119.5% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 19.5%
This is considered high, showing a tight favourite-driven market and limited value in the win book.
Race Name: Army Benevolent Fund Nursery Handicap
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Thirsk
Time of Race: 18:00
Runners: 6
First: #5 Mwaki
Age: 2
Weight: 9-5
Form: 4932
Jockey: Cieren Fallon
Trainer: Richard Spencer
Trainer RTF%: 33
RTFs: 45
OR: 63
TS: 45
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 32% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 25%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #4 Dakota Dawn
Age: 2
Weight: 9-5
Form: 483
Jockey: Jason Hart
Trainer: John & Sean Quinn
Trainer RTF%: 62
RTFs: 54
OR: 63
TS: 54
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 24% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 22%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #1 Sinj
Form: 3220
Jockey: Joe Leavy
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 21%
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Mwaki’s form is on the up, and a sharp 5f with a fair draw supports his chance. Dakota Dawn profiles as a pace-pressing challenger, but the combination of normalized probability outstripping the market implied makes Mwaki the bet. Sinj could nab a place if the favourite falters, but the win value isn’t present.
Scenario Analysis:
A relentless gallop up front aids closers — Liverpool Star and Sinj. A tactical race brings Dakota Dawn closer but prevailing market confidence remains with Mwaki as stamina is enhanced on good to firm.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 120% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 20%
Margin is high; market is defensive around short-priced contenders.
Race Name: Don’t Miss Summer Family Days @thirskraces Classified Stakes (Div I)
Race Distance: 7f 218y
Racecourse: Thirsk
Time of Race: 18:30
Runners: 12
First: #12 The Kamikaze King
Age: 3
Weight: 9-0
Form: -83642
Jockey: Cieren Fallon
Trainer: Dylan Cunha
Trainer RTF%: 58
RTFs: 45
OR: 47
TS: 45
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Each Way
Second: #1 One More Bottle
Age: 4
Weight: 9-9
Form: 637061
Jockey: Elizabeth Gale
Trainer: Lizzie Quinlan
Trainer RTF%: 29
RTFs: 55
OR: 50
TS: 55
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 15% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 24%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #7 Yorkshire Glory
Form: -77233
Jockey: Paul Mulrennan
Trainer: Ben Haslam
Probability: 13% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 12%
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
A big field, but with exposed and inconsistent types. The Kamikaze King is consistent, with a solid SecEff and is fairly held at the prices, making a strong place case. One More Bottle is penalized and below fair value. Yorkshire Glory is progressive and fits for an each-way placing.
Scenario Analysis:
If the outside stalls show bias, One More Bottle could lead throughout. If pace collapses, closers like Yorkshire Glory come to the fore. Upgrading for late runners in softening ground.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 126% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 26%
This is excessive, with major inflation among outsiders and reduced each-way returns.
Race Name: Don’t Miss Summer Family Days @thirskraces Classified Stakes (Div II)
Race Distance: 7f 218y
Racecourse: Thirsk
Time of Race: 19:00
Runners: 12
First: #4 Dash Power
Age: 4
Weight: 9-9
Form: 245827
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Trainer: Lawrence Mullaney
Trainer RTF%: 50
RTFs: 53
OR: 50
TS: 53
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 16%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Each Way
Second: #9 Harry Palmer
Age: 3
Weight: 9-0
Form: 374532
Jockey: Tom Eaves
Trainer: Kevin Ryan
Trainer RTF%: 36
RTFs: 47
OR: 47
TS: 47
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 15% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 13%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Each Way
Third: #1 Angel Of The Bay
Form: 5-7363
Jockey: Elizabeth Gale
Trainer: David & Nicola Barron
Probability: 13% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 9%
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
Dash Power has sound stats at the trip and is working into form — expected to be well positioned tactically. Harry Palmer is improving and versatile, and Angel Of The Bay is the “wildcard” for a late surge. Market has not caught up entirely to their improvements.
Scenario Analysis:
If the early gallop steadies, Harry Palmer may pounce late. True even pace suits Dash Power, while Riding tactics are key with Angel Of The Bay from a good stall.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 125% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 25%
Excessive, with bloated odds on no-hopers and a tight core middle band.
Race Name: David Lever Memorial Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (GBB)
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Thirsk
Time of Race: 19:30
Runners: 8
First: #3 Bette Davis Eyes
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: —
Jockey: Kieran Shoemark
Trainer: Ed Walker
Trainer RTF%: 54
RTFs: —
OR: —
TS: —
SecEff (0–1): 0.90 (est)
Probability: 30% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 31%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: Win
Second: #7 Tardaff
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 02
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Trainer: Ian Williams
Probability: 27% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 26%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Third: #4 Exposay
Form: 4
Jockey: William Pyle
Trainer: David Loughnane
Probability: 16% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 13%
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
Bette Davis Eyes makes appeal on debut, with pedigree and stable inform suggesting a sharp showing. Tardaff brings proven experience to the table and is the main market rival. Exposay could sneak a place if the favourite fails to fire.
Scenario Analysis:
Slow pace may play into the hands of experienced types like Tardaff. If the rain materializes pre-race, Exposay’s stamina could count.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 120% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 20%
Average margin for a maiden, with the market strongly shaped by the top two.
Race Name: thirskracecourse.net Handicap
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Thirsk
Time of Race: 20:00
Runners: 7
First: #5 Tiva
Age: 3
Weight: 9-6
Form: -13433
Jockey: Daniel Tudhope
Trainer: David O’Meara
Trainer RTF%: 60
RTFs: 76
OR: 72
TS: 76
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: 29% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 28%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #2 Marajito
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 724201
Jockey: David Allan
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Trainer RTF%: 44
RTFs: 63
OR: 75
TS: 63
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 24% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 23%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Third: #7 Brazilian Belle
Form: -43442
Jockey: Paul Mulrennan
Trainer: Michael Dods
Probability: 16% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 15%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Tiva looks the model of consistency with top sectional metrics and should relish the fast ground. Marajito is competitive and has the class edge, while Brazilian Belle is holding her form. Any slip from the pace leaders and Blue Lakota could pick up pieces late, but this looks Tiva v Marajito at the sharp end.
Scenario Analysis:
Preference to front-runners in a truly run race; however, if leaders duel, the pack closes late — ideal for Brazilian Belle and Tees Aggregates.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 118% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 18%
A fairly tight book with slightly better value at the top of the market.
Race Name: Sky Bet Summer Festival Coming Soon Handicap
Race Distance: 1m 6f
Racecourse: Thirsk
Time of Race: 20:30
Runners: 6
First: #1 Green Team
Age: 6
Weight: 9-9
Form: 629113
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Trainer: Ian Williams
Trainer RTF%: 59
RTFs: 72
OR: 69
TS: 72
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 28% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 29%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: Win
Second: #3 Fleur De Mer
Age: 5
Weight: 9-7
Form: 30-574
Jockey: Daniel Tudhope
Trainer: Martin Todhunter
Trainer RTF%: 47
RTFs: 78
OR: 67
TS: 78
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 25% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 23%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #6 Daaris
Form: 325153
Jockey: William Pyle
Trainer: Kevin Frost
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 16%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Green Team has proven stamina, good sectionals and turn-of-foot at the trip. Fleur De Mer has to prove she stays, but enters calculations as the each-way type. Minimal pace may play against short-runners, so race tactics will be crucial.
Scenario Analysis:
If the ground shifts to genuine good, Fleur De Mer closes the gap. Should there be a strong early pace, Daaris could be best placed late.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 120% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 20%
Market is defensive and spreads risk, reflecting uncertainty about a clear leader.
Race Name: Thirsk Racecourse Ideal Conference Venue Handicap
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Thirsk
Time of Race: 21:00
Runners: 13
First: #3 Without Delay
Age: 6
Weight: 9-12
Form: 565921
Jockey: William Pyle
Trainer: Tracy Waggott
Trainer RTF%: 75
RTFs: 60
OR: 55
TS: 60
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: 21% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 22%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Each Way
Second: #2 Dumfries
Age: 5
Weight: 9-12
Form: 168214
Jockey: James Sullivan
Trainer: Ruth Carr
Trainer RTF%: 30
RTFs: 58
OR: 55
TS: 58
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 15%
Value: Above Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Each Way
Third: #7 Langholm
Form: 803433
Jockey: Rhys Elliott
Trainer: Michael Dods
Probability: 12% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 12%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Without Delay landed the latest run with authority and remains fairly treated. Dumfries is consistent on fast ground, with strong place claims. Langholm often hits the frame at this grade. The field is open and holds decent each-way propositions.
Scenario Analysis:
If market support hardens behind Kalganov, consider him for exotics. Any track bias low enhances Without Delay’s claims. Plenty of early pace could see closers like Dumfries finishing best.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 125% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 25%
Excessive margin, especially in a handicap this big.
Nap of the Meeting – Thirsk 15 July 2025
Race Time: 18:00
Horse Name: #5 Mwaki
Confidence Factors: Clear upward curve, proven on going, good sectionals, and optimal draw.
Race Conditions: Fast ground and a compact field favour his running style; jockey/trainer firing.
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
Probability Normalized is a corrected chance of a horse winning after adjusting for the total market probabilities (including all runners), so that they sum to 100%. Implied Probability is a direct reflection of a horse’s odds — calculated as 1 divided by decimal odds — and often sums above 100% due to bookmaker margins.
Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability