Bet Smart & Win — Galway Race Preview
Saturday 25 October 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: J J Slevin
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 2m90y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: ≈ 2.22 (from IP 45%)
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
The clear favourite; Cork hurdling debut experience a big plus. Above Fair on the model.
Details
- J: Cian Quirke
- T: Andrew Slattery
- Trip: 2m90y
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: ≈ 4.76 (from IP 21%)
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
Second in the market; ties in well on form. Fair value profile.
Details
- J: Shane Fitzgerald
- T: Brian Francis Cawley
- Trip: 2m90y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: ≈ 7.69 (from IP 13%)
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
Consistent; slightly Below Fair on price but respected for the frame.
Details
- J: Mr A P Ryan
- T: Jonathan Sweeney
- Trip: 2m90y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: ≈ 2.63 (from IP 38%)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Form pick but short; model flags Below Fair at current price.
Details
- J: Cian Quirke
- T: Andrew Slattery
- Trip: 2m90y
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: ≈ 3.45 (from IP 29%)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Main danger on form; still Below Fair vs model line.
Details
- J: Sean Flanagan
- T: E McNamara
- Trip: 2m90y
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: ≈ 5.00 (from IP 20%)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Best value of the trio with NP closing on IP; could outrun price.
Details
- J: Sam Ewing
- T: Thomas Cooper
- Trip: 2m90y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: ≈ 3.23 (from IP 31%)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Top on form if bouncing back; fair value on the model.
Details
- J: Mike O’Connor
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m90y
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Odds: ≈ 4.17 (from IP 24%)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
From a powerful yard; solid and fairly priced.
Details
- J: Daniel King
- T: John J Nallen
- Trip: 2m90y
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: ≈ 6.67 (from IP 15%)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Fitness edge; Above Fair and a solid frame player.
Details
- J: Mark Walsh
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m2f54y
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Odds: ≈ 3.45 (from IP 29%)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Should improve for comeback run; Above Fair on the model.
Details
- J: Keith Donoghue
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trip: 2m2f54y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: ≈ 3.85 (from IP 26%)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Recent C&D second; solid and fairly priced.
Details
- J: Sean Flanagan
- T: E McNamara
- Trip: 2m2f54y
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: ≈ 11.11 (from IP 9%)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Not as strong as front two but fairly priced to complete the three.
Details
- J: J J Slevin
- T: Joseph Anthony Murray
- Trip: 2m5f200y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: ≈ 10.00 (from IP 10%)
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
AI flags strong value; recent Flat form suggests a winnable mark.
Details
- J: Sam Ewing
- T: Noel Meade
- Trip: 2m5f200y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: ≈ 8.33 (from IP 12%)
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
Rightly towards head of market; Above Fair and should be in the mix.
Details
- J: Jordan Gainford
- T: H Rogers
- Trip: 2m5f200y
- Trainer RTF%: 83%
- Odds: ≈ 6.25 (from IP 16%)
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
Favourite in excellent form; Above Fair confirms strong claims.
Details
- J: Jordan Gainford
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 3m
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: ≈ 4.55 (from IP 22%)
- Overround: 103%
Analysis
Powerful stable; Above Fair enhances consistent form claims.
Details
- J: Philip Byrnes
- T: Brian M McMahon
- Trip: 3m
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: ≈ 7.14 (from IP 14%)
- Overround: 103%
Analysis
Market prominent; Above Fair and a strong value play.
Details
- J: Phillip Enright
- T: Brian M McMahon
- Trip: 3m
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: ≈ 14.29 (from IP 7%)
- Overround: 103%
Analysis
Longer trip should suit; fair value as a speculative player.
Details
- J: Daire Davis
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 2m90y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: ≈ 2.78 (from IP 36%)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Clear form pick; Below Fair at current quotes but respected on pedigree and connections.
Details
- J: Mr H C Swan
- T: Noel Meade
- Trip: 2m90y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: ≈ 7.69 (from IP 13%)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Punchestown form reads well; Above Fair and a strong contender.
Details
- J: Mr D Allen
- T: Terence O’Brien
- Trip: 2m90y
- Trainer RTF%: 17%
- Odds: ≈ 3.45 (from IP 29%)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Similar level to fav; Below Fair on price but obvious player.
Analysis
Clear form pick with beneficial hurdling experience; strong trainer/jockey; model shows clear Above Fair in ideal conditions. Back with confidence.