Bet Smart & Win — Galway Race Preview
Monday 27 October 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Ronan Whelan
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 1m73y
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: 5/4
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
The experience gained by VENOSA in good company ought to be enough to see this 93-rated filly open her account at the fifth attempt.
Details
- J: Wayne Hassett
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 1m73y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: 9/2
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Shows Above Fair value and represents solid each-way value against the favorite.
Details
- J: Dylan Browne McMonagle
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 1m73y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: 5/1
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Has a normalized probability below its implied probability, indicating Below Fair value but respected from top connections.
Details
- J: Rory Cleary
- T: Daniel John Howard
- Trip: 1m73y
- Trainer RTF%: Not Provided
- Odds: 8/1
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Plenty with chances, none more so than last year’s winner SYLKIE on the back of a very encouraging Curragh run and now 5lb lower.
Details
- J: Gary Carroll
- T: Michael Mulvany
- Trip: 1m73y
- Trainer RTF%: 30%
- Odds: 11/2
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Market leader with solid claims and Above Fair value assessment.
Details
- J: Seamie Heffernan
- T: Aengus King
- Trip: 1m73y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: 9/1
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Rated as Fair value and represents solid each-way claims in competitive handicap.
Details
- J: Liam Keniry
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: 2/5
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
This should be relatively straightforward for GARDEN PARTY who kept on to secure second in a Leopardstown race dominated by the stable.
Details
- J: Ronan Whelan
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: 8/1
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Assessed as Fair value and represents the main danger to the favorite.
Details
- J: Seamie Heffernan
- T: J A Stack
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: 8/1
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Assessed as Fair value and respected from top connections.
Details
- J: Dylan Browne McMonagle
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: 5/1
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Last week’s Gowran winner Mr Tony is respected but shows Below Fair value assessment.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: Mrs John Harrington
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: 13/2
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Last week’s Gowran winner Mr Tony is respected but is opposed here with TAIYI, whose Naas claimg third reads well.
Details
- J: Nicola Burns
- T: T G McCourt
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: 13/2
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Shows Below Fair value but represents solid each-way claims in competitive nursery.
Details
- J: Dylan Browne McMonagle
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: 7/2
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
If the market vibes are positive it could pay to take a chance on Joseph’s O’Brien’s debutante SEOLA.
Details
- J: Nicola Burns
- T: Gerard O’Leary
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 20%
- Odds: 100/30
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Market leader but shows Below Fair value assessment in competitive maiden.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: Ross O’Sullivan
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: 11/2
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Assessed as Fair value and represents solid each-way claims.
Details
- J: Adam Browne-Souza
- T: Andrew Slattery
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: 11/2
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Wide open but perhaps worth persevering with ROCK ETOILE (nap), who would gone a bit closer at Gowran last time when short of room.
Details
- J: Luke McAteer
- T: P J F Murphy
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 22%
- Odds: 13/2
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Assessed as Fair value and represents solid claims in competitive handicap.
Details
- J: Mel Sheridan
- T: Denis Gerard Hogan
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: 8/1
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Assessed as Fair value and represents each-way value in open contest.
Details
- J: Julian Pietropaolo
- T: Michael Flannery
- Trip: 1m3f180y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: 7/1
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
In a very open contest EHTEYAT may be able to continue a good vein of form. He has ground conditions to suit and a good apprentice up.
Details
- J: Joseph Harnett
- T: Mark Fahey
- Trip: 1m3f180y
- Trainer RTF%: 20%
- Odds: 7/1
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Assessed as Fair value and represents solid claims in competitive staying handicap.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: Ross O’Sullivan
- Trip: 1m3f180y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: 10/1
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Assessed as Fair value and represents each-way value in open contest.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: Mrs John Harrington
- Trip: 1m3f180y
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: 4/1
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
A breakthrough win is feasible for GOD THE HIGHNESS who renews last week’s Navan rivalry with the penalised Charlie Brow’n.
Details
- J: Ben Coen
- T: T J O’Mara
- Trip: 1m3f180y
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: 9/2
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Shows Below Fair value but represents solid claims in competitive handicap.
Details
- J: Chris Hayes
- T: P A Fahy
- Trip: 1m3f180y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: 13/2
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Shows Below Fair value but represents each-way claims in competitive finale.
Analysis
High normalized probability (64%), significant value with normalized probability exceeding implied probability by a wide margin, runner count fits ideal criteria, class aligns with preferences. This should be relatively straightforward for GARDEN PARTY who kept on to secure second in a Leopardstown race dominated by the stable.