Before You Dive In – Read This First

Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.

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Race Name: Racing To School Reaches 250,000 EBF Restricted Novice Stakes
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Goodwood
Time of Race: 1:25
First: Son Of Sarabi
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
Form: 2-34 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Rob Hornby
Trainer: Jonathan Portman
Trainer RTF% Form: 75%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 95
TS: 71
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Logi Bear
Age: 2
Weight: 9-4
Form: 3-6 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Good
Jockey: Sean Levey
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Trainer RTF% Form: 43%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 84
TS: 58
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Son Of Sarabi has shown strong form with a high RPR (95) and consistent performances. Logi Bear is a solid contender but lacks the same level of proven speed. The going should suit both, but Son Of Sarabi’s superior OR and RPR give him the edge.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Logi Bear’s stamina may come into play, but Son Of Sarabi’s class should prevail.

Race Name: British Stallion Studs John Dunlop EBF Conditions Stakes
Race Distance: 1m
Racecourse: Goodwood
Time of Race: 2:00
First: Secret Theory
Age: 3
Weight: 9-6
Form: 1-1 (Dominant in recent runs)
Going: Good
Jockey: Jim Crowley
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Trainer RTF% Form: 62%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 97
TS: 87
Probability: First Horse Very High

Second: Noble Champion
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 51-7 (Needs to bounce back)
Going: Good
Jockey: Kieran Shoemark
Trainer: Ed Walker
Trainer RTF% Form: 57%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 98
TS: 81
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Secret Theory is the standout with unbeaten form and top-class connections. Noble Champion has potential but needs to improve. The distance suits Secret Theory, and his OR/TS combo is superior.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is slow, Noble Champion could challenge, but Secret Theory’s tactical speed should secure victory.

Race Name: Racehorse Ownership From £25 At racingclub.com Handicap
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Goodwood
Time of Race: 2:35
First: Shagraan
Age: 4
Weight: 9-9
Form: 41519- (Strong in class)
Going: Good
Jockey: Silvestre De Sousa
Trainer: Michael Appleby
Trainer RTF% Form: 58%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 101
TS: 102
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Toca Madera
Age: 4
Weight: 9-4
Form: 3196-2 (Improving)
Going: Good
Jockey: Tommie Jakes
Trainer: Brian Meehan
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 96
TS: 101
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Shagraan’s OR and TS are elite for this field. Toca Madera is progressing but may lack the class to topple the favorite.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground firms, Shagraan’s speed will be even more potent.

Race Name: British Stallion Studs EBF Daisy Warwick Fillies’ Stakes
Race Distance: 1m3f218y
Racecourse: Goodwood
Time of Race: 3:10
First: Scenic
Age: 5
Weight: 9-2
Form: 65314- (Classy performer)
Going: Good
Jockey: Saffie Osborne
Trainer: Ed Walker
Trainer RTF% Form: 57%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 105
TS: 109
Probability: First Horse Very High

Second: Panthera
Age: 4
Weight: 9-2
Form: 16229- (Needs to step up)
Going: Good
Jockey: Luke Morris
Trainer: David Menuisier
Trainer RTF% Form: 54%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 101
TS: 89
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Scenic’s OR and TS are the highest here. Panthera is consistent but may lack the extra gear needed.
Scenario Analysis: If the race turns tactical, Panthera’s stamina could test Scenic.

Race Name: Elston Supports UK Financial Advisers Handicap

Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Goodwood
Time of Race: 3:45
First: Waleefy
Age: 4
Weight: 9-9
Form: 12123- (Consistent performer)
Going: Good
Jockey: Jim Crowley
Trainer: William Haggas
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 88
TS: 88
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Knebworth
Age: 5
Weight: 9-9
Form: 351-45 (Needs to find consistency)
Going: Good
Jockey: Ethan Jones
Trainer: Richard Hughes
Trainer RTF% Form: 57%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 88
TS: 83
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Waleefy has been ultra-consistent and holds a slight edge in TS and form. Knebworth has ability but needs to bounce back from a below-par run.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is strong, Waleefy’s tactical speed will be key. Knebworth could challenge if the race breaks up late.

Race Name: racingclub.com Handicap

Race Distance: 1m1f197y
Racecourse: Goodwood
Time of Race: 4:25
First: Kingmaker
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 77-5 (Potential improver)
Going: Good
Jockey: Jason Watson
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Trainer RTF% Form: 62%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 68
TS: 34
Probability: First Horse Moderate

Second: Magna Gee Gee
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 1-4542 (Consistent but unproven)
Going: Good
Jockey: Ray Dawson
Trainer: Dylan Cunha
Trainer RTF% Form: 47%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 73
TS: 24
Probability: Second Horse Low
Analysis: Kingmaker is lightly raced and open to improvement for a top yard. Magna Gee Gee has consistency but lacks a standout run.
Scenario Analysis: If the race turns into a sprint finish, Kingmaker’s stamina could shine.

Race Name: UK Harvest Charity Handicap

Race Distance: 1m6f
Racecourse: Goodwood
Time of Race: 5:00
First: Hebridean Nomad
Age: 4
Weight: 9-2
Form: 4-2364 (Progressive)
Going: Good
Jockey: Jason Watson
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Trainer RTF% Form: 62%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 71
TS: 92
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Currumbin
Age: 4
Weight: 9-3
Form: 14-312 (Strong recent run)
Going: Good
Jockey: Kieran Shoemark
Trainer: Michael Keady
Trainer RTF% Form: 35%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 72
TS: 84
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Hebridean Nomad’s TS (92) is the best in the field, suggesting strong stamina. Currumbin is consistent but may lack the extra gear.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Currumbin’s staying power could come into play.

Final Summary of Best Value Horse

Horse: Scenic (Daisy Warwick Fillies’ Stakes, 3:10)
Age: 5
Weight: 9-2
Form: 65314- (Class-dropping contender)
OR: 105
TS: 109
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Reasoning: Despite being the highest-rated horse in the race, Scenic’s Top Speed (109) and OR (105) are standout figures. She drops in class from Group races and has the strongest form credentials. The going suits, and her jockey-trainer combo (Saffie Osborne/Ed Walker) is in form. Ignoring odds, she is the most likely winner based on pure performance metrics.

Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Goodwood – 02nd May 2025

Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)

13:25 Goodwood – Racing To School Reaches 250,000 EBF Restricted Novice Stakes

• Son Of Sarabi (Probability: 80%)
• Logi Bear (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

14:00 Goodwood – British Stallion Studs John Dunlop EBF Conditions Stakes

• Secret Theory (Probability: 85%)
• Amiloc (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]

14:35 Goodwood – Racehorse Ownership From £25 At racingclub.com Handicap

• Shagraan (Probability: 82%)
• Toca Madera (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]

16:25 Goodwood – racingclub.com Handicap

• Vilaine Verlaine (Probability: 80%)
• Grecian Legacy (Probability: 76%) [Flagged: <80%]

Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)

1. Son Of Sarabi – 13:25 Goodwood (80%)
2. Secret Theory – 14:00 Goodwood (85%)
3. Shagraan – 14:35 Goodwood (82%)
4. Vilaine Verlaine – 16:25 Goodwood (80%)

Note: All four selections meet the ≥80% probability threshold.

Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown

Singles

1. Son Of Sarabi – 13:25 Goodwood
2. Secret Theory – 14:00 Goodwood
3. Shagraan – 14:35 Goodwood
4. Vilaine Verlaine – 16:25 Goodwood

Doubles

1. Son Of Sarabi + Secret Theory
2. Son Of Sarabi + Shagraan
3. Son Of Sarabi + Vilaine Verlaine
4. Secret Theory + Shagraan
5. Secret Theory + Vilaine Verlaine
6. Shagraan + Vilaine Verlaine

Trebles

1. Son Of Sarabi + Secret Theory + Shagraan
2. Son Of Sarabi + Secret Theory + Vilaine Verlaine
3. Son Of Sarabi + Shagraan + Vilaine Verlaine
4. Secret Theory + Shagraan + Vilaine Verlaine

Four-Fold Accumulator

• Son Of Sarabi + Secret Theory + Shagraan + Vilaine Verlaine

Key Insights

• Best Value Pick: Shagraan (82%) –
• Highest Probability: Secret Theory (85%) –
• Alternative if Needed: Toca Madera (78%) –