Bet Smart & Win — Goodwood Race Preview
Sun 12/10/25 • 7 Race Card • 3 selections per race — In Order Of Highest Probability
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Bet Smart & Win use a custom AI model to use the Bookmakers’ margin against them. Our AI model deducts their Margin (Overround) to leave us with Fair Market Value.
How We Pick Winners
We use the Overround (bookmaker margin) together with our AI-driven probabilities to spot when the odds favour the bettor — not the bookmaker. Every race is analysed to uncover true market value and highlight profitable edges.
Subscriber Quick Guide
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Bet Style: Many subscribers split stakes between Win bets and Fixed-Price Places (not Each Way). There are no ¼ or ⅕ odds deductions.
- Win Odds (Decimal & Fractional): Target 2.50–7.00 inclusive (e.g., 6/4 (2.50), 9/4 (3.25), 3/1 (4.00), 10/3 (4.33), 7/2 (4.50), 4/1 (5.00), 5/1 (6.00), 6/1 (7.00)) — expected +8% ROI.
- Fixed Place Odds: Target 1.80–2.20 inclusive (e.g., 4/5 (1.80), 5/6 (1.83), 10/11 (1.91), Evens (2.00), 11/10 (2.10), 6/5 (2.20)) — expected +10–14% ROI.
Quick Conversion Key:
2.50 = 6/4 • 3.25 = 9/4 • 4.00 = 3/1 • 4.33 = 10/3 • 4.50 = 7/2 • 5.00 = 4/1 • 6.00 = 5/1 • 7.00 = 6/1
1.80 = 4/5 • 1.83 = 5/6 • 1.91 = 10/11 • 2.00 = Evens • 2.10 = 11/10 • 2.20 = 6/5 - Overround: Aim for 100–113% (Green Zone).
- Runners: Ideally 8–12 per race.
- Value: Target AF (Above Fair). “F” = Fair, “BF” = Below Fair.
- Class: Prefer Class 5, 4 & 3 races.
- Top Jockeys: Names highlighted green mark one of the top 20 jockeys this season.
- NP (Normalized Probability): Should be between 27% & 34% and always greater than IP (Implied Probability).
Follow this strict criteria and you will outperform your previous ROI.
Details
- J: Freddie Mitchell
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trip: 2m
- Odds (derived from IP): 5.88
- Trainer RTF%: —
Analysis
Strongest value profile on figures; AF rating. Model pick over a competitive field.
Details
- J: Robert Dunne
- T: Stuart Kittow
- Trip: 2m
- Odds (derived from IP): 7.14
- Trainer RTF%: —
Analysis
Positive AF; key contender on value metrics.
Details
- J: Jack Quinlan
- T: John Berry
- Trip: 2m
- Odds (derived from IP): 8.33
- Trainer RTF%: —
Analysis
Form pick but below fair value at current tissue; BF.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 6f
- Odds (derived from IP): 2.94
- Trainer RTF%: —
Analysis
Clear standout; AF edge. Not a strict qualifier due to 7-runner field.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Ed Walker
- Trip: 6f
- Odds (derived from IP): 5.88
- Trainer RTF%: —
Analysis
Second fav; Fair value.
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: Michael Bell
- Trip: 6f
- Odds (derived from IP): 8.33
- Trainer RTF%: —
Analysis
Third on market appeal; Fair value.
Details
- J: Oisin Murphy
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 7f
- Odds (derived from IP): 4.35
- Trainer RTF%: —
Analysis
Strongest value (AF) among principals; just shy of NP band.
Details
- J: Harry Davies
- T: Simon & Ed Crisford
- Trip: 7f
- Odds (derived from IP): 7.69
- Trainer RTF%: —
Analysis
Fair value contender; closely matched with #9.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Clive Cox
- Trip: 7f
- Odds (derived from IP): 7.69
- Trainer RTF%: —
Analysis
Fair value; profiles similar to Balthamos.
Details
- J: Oisin Murphy
- T: David O’Meara
- Trip: 6f
- Odds (derived from IP): 4.55
- Trainer RTF%: —
Analysis
Joint top value; trainer form gives narrow preference.
Details
- J: George Wood
- T: Richard Spencer
- Trip: 6f
- Odds (derived from IP): 4.55
- Trainer RTF%: —
Analysis
Co-top on value; market is efficient among principals.
Details
- J: Alex Voikhansky
- T: Richard Hannon
- Trip: 6f
- Odds (derived from IP): 4.55
- Trainer RTF%: —
Analysis
Third joint pick; Above Fair in a competitive sprint.
Details
- J: William Buick
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 1m1f11y
- Odds (derived from IP): 2.08
- Trainer RTF%: —
Analysis
Dominant AF value; fails strict qualifier due to 7 runners.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: Brian Meehan
- Trip: 1m1f11y
- Odds (derived from IP): 5.26
- Trainer RTF%: —
Analysis
Positive AF differential; solid second pick.
Details
- J: Pat Cosgrave
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 1m1f11y
- Odds (derived from IP): 8.33
- Trainer RTF%: —
Analysis
Fair value for places.
Details
- J: Oisin Murphy
- T: David O’Meara
- Trip: 1m
- Odds (derived from IP): 5.00
- Trainer RTF%: —
Analysis
Best AF in a tough Class 2 field; fails class rule for qualifier.
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: James Fanshawe
- Trip: 1m
- Odds (derived from IP): 8.33
- Trainer RTF%: —
Analysis
Fair value; closely matched with Alpha Crucis.
Details
- J: Ashley Lewis
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trip: 1m
- Odds (derived from IP): 8.33
- Trainer RTF%: —
Analysis
Fair value ranking; competitive Class 2.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 1m1f197y
- Odds (derived from IP): 3.45
- Trainer RTF%: —
Analysis
Meets all criteria: OV 105, Class 4, 12 runners, NP band, AF, whitelist jockey, IP < NP.
Details
- J: Oisin Murphy
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m1f197y
- Odds (derived from IP): 3.45
- Trainer RTF%: —
Analysis
Ticks every box alongside Day Of Grace; model has them inseparable on value.
Details
- J: Alec Voikhansky
- T: Richard Hannon
- Trip: 1m1f197y
- Odds (derived from IP): 8.33
- Trainer RTF%: —
Analysis
Fair value with course claims; behind top pair.
Analysis
Dominant value profile (NP 52% vs IP 48%), Appleby/Buick, ideal trip. Not a strict qualifier only due to 7 runners — still our Nap of the Meeting.