Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
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Race Name: followusonsocials@dreammakerles Handicap
Race Distance: 5f7y
Racecourse: Hamilton
Time of Race: 1:25
First: Hurt You Never
Age: 6
Weight: 9-9
Form: 000-82 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Adrian Nicholls
Trainer: Jack Nicholls
Trainer RTF% Form: 27%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 65
TS: 57
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Refuge
Age: 8
Weight: 9-1
Form: 5757-7 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Billy Garritty
Trainer: Michael & David Easterby
Trainer RTF% Form: 46%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 57
TS: 72
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Hurt You Never has the highest OR (65) and is well-weighted for this race. Refuge has shown better recent speed (TS 72) but lacks consistency. The going should suit both, but Hurt You Never’s class may prevail.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Refuge could close the gap due to superior stamina.
Race Name: Dreammaker Foundation Making Dreams Happen Novice Stakes
Race Distance: 5f7y
Racecourse: Hamilton
Time of Race: 1:55
First: Ay Gee Ell
Age: 3
Weight: 9-4
Form: 8-2527 (Strong recent form)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Oisin Orr
Trainer: Richard Fahey
Trainer RTF% Form: 45%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 76
TS: –
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Mayberry Moon
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 10- (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Connor Beasley
Trainer: Michael Dods
Trainer RTF% Form: 48%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 53
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Ay Gee Ell has the highest OR (76) and is proven over this distance. Mayberry Moon is unexposed but lacks race fitness.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is slow, Mayberry Moon’s stamina could come into play.
Race Name: Hampton By Hilton Onsite Hotel Buttonhook Handicap
Race Distance: 1m5f16y
Racecourse: Hamilton
Time of Race: 2:35
First: Kitteridge
Age: 4
Weight: 9-6
Form: 38044- (Consistent performances)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Jason Hart
Trainer: Hugo Palmer
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 86
TS: 79
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Arrange
Age: 7
Weight: 9-5
Form: 9212-3 (Strong recent form)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: David Nolan
Trainer: Martin Todhunter
Trainer RTF% Form: 100%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 85
TS: 85
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Kitteridge has the highest OR (86) and is well-suited to the distance. Arrange is in form but may struggle with the weight.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Arrange’s stamina could be decisive.
Race Name: Darley Stallions EBF Novice Stakes
Race Distance: 1m68y
Racecourse: Hamilton
Time of Race: 3:05
First: Sallaal
Age: 3
Weight: 9-10
Form: 1-5 (Strong debut win)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Ray Dawson
Trainer: Roger Varian
Trainer RTF% Form: 58%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 91
TS: 82
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Arctic Grey
Age: 3
Weight: 9-10
Form: 1 (Unbeaten)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Sam Hitchcott
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Trainer RTF% Form: 40%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Sallaal is the class act here with an OR of 91 and strong form. Arctic Grey is unexposed but lacks experience.
Scenario Analysis: If Arctic Grey handles the step up in class, he could challenge.
Race Name: Leisure Connect Innovative Broadband Supplier Handicap
Race Distance: 1m68y
Racecourse: Hamilton
Time of Race: 3:45
First: Quiet Resolve
Age: 4
Weight: 9-9
Form: 1-8522 (Consistent)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Oisin Orr
Trainer: Richard Fahey
Trainer RTF% Form: 45%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 75
TS: 59
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Arkenstaar
Age: 5
Weight: 9-1
Form: 0976-7 (Needs improvement)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Connor Beasley
Trainer: Michael Dods
Trainer RTF% Form: 48%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 67
TS: 81
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Quiet Resolve is the most consistent, while Arkenstaar has speed but lacks recent form.
Scenario Analysis: If the race turns tactical, Arkenstaar’s late speed could be dangerous.
Race Name: Racing TV Handicap
Race Distance: 6f6y
Racecourse: Hamilton
Time of Race: 4:18
First: The Vital Spark
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 0640-1 (Improving)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Tom Eaves
Trainer: Kevin Ryan
Trainer RTF% Form: 48%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 65
TS: 63
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Mister Sky Blue
Age: 3
Weight: 9-1
Form: 5685-3 (Consistent)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Connor Beasley
Trainer: Gemma Tutty
Trainer RTF% Form: 33%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 57
TS: 71
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: The Vital Spark is progressive, while Mister Sky Blue has solid speed figures.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace collapses, Mister Sky Blue’s late kick could trouble the favorite.
Race Name: followusonx@hamiltonparkrc Handicap
Race Distance: 1m3f15y
Racecourse: Hamilton
Time of Race: 4:53
First: Mister Daydream
Age: 4
Weight: 9-11
Form: 354-51 (Strong recent win)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Andrew Mullen
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 72
TS: 44
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Masekela
Age: 6
Weight: 9-7
Form: 558-66 (Needs to bounce back)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: David Allan
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Trainer RTF% Form: 48%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 68
TS: 62
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Mister Daydream is in form, while Masekela has class but needs to find his best.
Scenario Analysis: If Masekela rediscovers his old form, he could upset.
Out of my analysis for Hamilton on the 04th of May 2025, this horse shows the best value for money based on Age, Weight, OR, TS, and RTF’s:
Horse: Kitteridge
Age: 4
Weight: 9-6
Form: 38044- (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 86
TS: 79
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Form and Improvement: Kitteridge has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making her a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The conditions on the day are expected to suit her, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.
In summary, Kitteridge presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Hamilton – 04th May 2025
Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)
13:25 Hamilton – followusonsocials@dreammakerles Handicap
- Hurt You Never (Probability: 80%)
- Newyorkstateofmind (Probability: 60%) [Flagged: <80%]
* *
14:35 Hamilton – Hampton By Hilton Onsite Hotel Buttonhook Handicap
- Faylaq (Probability: 85%)
- Kitteridge (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]
* *
15:45 Hamilton – Racing TV Handicap
- Quiet Resolve (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
- Epidavros (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]
* *
16:18 Hamilton – Racing TV Handicap
- The Vital Spark (Probability: 82%)
- Mister Sky Blue (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
* *
Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)
- Hurt You Never (13:25, Hamilton, 80%)
- Faylaq (14:35, Hamilton, 85%)
- The Vital Spark (16:18, Hamilton, 82%)
- Quiet Resolve (15:45, Hamilton, 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
*Note: Only 3 horses meet the ≥80% threshold; Quiet Resolve is included despite being slightly below the threshold.*
Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown
Singles
- Hurt You Never (13:25, Hamilton)
- Faylaq (14:35, Hamilton)
- The Vital Spark (16:18, Hamilton)
- Quiet Resolve (15:45, Hamilton)
Doubles
- Hurt You Never + Faylaq
- Hurt You Never + The Vital Spark
- Hurt You Never + Quiet Resolve
- Faylaq + The Vital Spark
- Faylaq + Quiet Resolve
- The Vital Spark + Quiet Resolve
Trebles
- Hurt You Never + Faylaq + The Vital Spark
- Hurt You Never + Faylaq + Quiet Resolve
- Hurt You Never + The Vital Spark + Quiet Resolve
- Faylaq + The Vital Spark + Quiet Resolve
Four-Fold Accumulator
- Hurt You Never + Faylaq + The Vital Spark + Quiet Resolve
Key Insights
- Best Value Pick: * * *
- Highest Probability: * * *
- Alternative if Needed: * * *
