Hamilton — Sun 21/09/25
Bet Smart & Win
Races: 7 (1–7)
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Our AI breaks down each bookmaker’s overround to uncover true fair value and identify Above-Fair (AF) plays.
How we pick winners
- Overround: 100–115% (green)
- Runners: 8–12
- Value: AF only when NP > IP
- Class: 5, 4 or 3
- Jockey: on strict whitelist
- NP: ≥ 27 and IP: below NP
1
Race 1
Overround: 114%
Class: 5
Runners: 7
Soft
#3 Mehsun (Form: 30)
J: Andrew MullenT: Iain Jardine
NP: 29%IP: 21%17/20
Details
Why we like this
- Strong recent figure; NP ahead of IP in a 114% book.
#6 Myrrh (Form: 28)
J: Daniel TudhopeT: David O’Meara
NP: 28%IP: 23%16/20
Details
Why we like this
- Solid SecEff profile; Fair at current tissue.
#1 Beyond The Bar (Form: —)
J: David AllanT: Tim Easterby
NP: 23%IP: 19%15/20
Details
Why we like this
- Debutant with Above-Fair split; market can shorten.
2
Race 2
Overround: 117%
Class: 6
Runners: 12
Soft
#6 Kyber Crystal (Form: 532583)
J: Oisin OrrT: Rebecca Menzies
NP: 33%IP: 26%17/20
Details
Why we like this
- Course record and soft-ground efficiency point to a win chance.
#4 Canaria Queen (Form: 011371)
J: Duran FentimanT: Tim Easterby
NP: 29%IP: 24%16/20
Details
Why we like this
- Recent wins; retains value despite orange book.
#1 Giselles Izzy (Form: 132231)
J: Cara TukeT: Iain Jardine
NP: 27%IP: 23%15/20
Details
Why we like this
- Reliable; Above-Fair split keeps her in the frame.
3
Race 3
Overround: 111%
Class: 4
Runners: 4
Soft
#2 Ocean Of Dreams (Form: 328404)
J: Andrew MullenT: Archie Watson
NP: 31%IP: 25%17/20
Details
Why we like this
- Best NP in a tight four-runner; handles conditions.
#3 Arkinthestars (Form: 462152)
J: Sam JamesT: K R Burke
NP: 28%IP: 22%16/20
Details
Why we like this
- Consistent; Above-Fair split keeps him competitive.
#4 Cayman Dancer (Form: 312748)
J: Jason HartT: Charlie Johnston
NP: 27%IP: 21%15/20
Details
Why we like this
- Close ratings cluster; soft OK; AF edge.
4
Race 4
Overround: 113%
Class: 4
Runners: 8
Soft
#5 Amayretto (Form: 102441)
J: David AllanT: Tim Easterby
NP: 32%IP: 26%17/20
Details
Why we like this
- Ticks NP>IP in a green book; soft-ground win last time.
#4 Thanks Angel (Form: 34-5)
J: Oisin McSweeneyT: Adrian P. Keatley
NP: 30%IP: 25%16/20
Details
Why we like this
- Handicap debut; profile suggests further improvement.
#8 Annie Edson Taylor (Form: 704321)
J: Sam JamesT: Phillip Makin
NP: 28%IP: 22%16/20
Details
Why we like this
- Progressing; Above-Fair at current quotes.
5
Race 5
Overround: 112%
Class: 5
Runners: 8
Soft
#7 Arkenstaar (Form: 744781)
J: Connor BeasleyT: Michael Dods
NP: 30%IP: 24%19/20
Details
Why we like this
- Course winner; model’s strongest scenario play on the card.
#1 Pisanello (Form: 680843)
J: Daniel TudhopeT: David O’Meara
NP: 28%IP: 23%16/20
Details
Why we like this
- Solid place base; Fair value at current quotes.
#5 Shine On Brendan (Form: 502428)
J: Kaiya FraserT: Jim Goldie
NP: 27%IP: 21%15/20
Details
Why we like this
- AF angle in a green book; consistent Hamilton operator.
6
Race 6
Overround: 114%
Class: 5
Runners: 7
Soft
#2 Hour By Hour (Form: 618-54)
J: Mohammed TabtiT: Iain Jardine
NP: 32%IP: 25%17/20
Details
Why we like this
- Class drop plus track affinity; NP>IP keeps him top.
#7 Belsito (Form: 044921)
J: Oisin McSweeneyT: Kevin Ryan
NP: 30%IP: 23%16/20
Details
Why we like this
- Course winner; Fair at current mark.
#3 Showtime Mahomes (Form: 653146)
J: Oliver StammersT: Grant Tuer
NP: 27%IP: 21%15/20
Details
Why we like this
- Honest sprinter; figures say place chance.
7
Race 7
Overround: 115%
Class: 6
Runners: 6
Soft
#4 Cougar (Form: 098681)
J: Mohammed TabtiT: Iain Jardine
NP: 33%IP: 26%17/20
Details
Why we like this
- Five-day penalty manageable; strong soft-ground indicator.
#3 Taylormade Lad (Form: 457451)
J: Connor BeasleyT: Michael Dods
NP: 28%IP: 23%16/20
Details
Why we like this
- Progressing; Fair rating with scope.
#1 Jaminoz (Form: -56511)
J: Oisin OrrT: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
NP: 27%IP: 22%15/20
Details
Why we like this
- Back-to-back wins; AF split sustains the case.
NAP
Hamilton — NAP
Overround: 112%
Class: 5
Runners: 8
Soft
#7 Arkenstaar (Form: 744781)
J: Connor BeasleyT: Michael Dods
NP: 30%IP: 24%19/20
Details
Why we like this
- Top NP with AF value; proven at Hamilton; model’s strongest “run-that-wins” scenario.