Bet Smart & Win — Hereford Race Preview
Tuesday 11 November 2025 • Hereford • Top Value Selections
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the most probable outcomes in each race based on value, efficiency, and race dynamics. Where noted, additional selections are included to support each-way and place-based strategies.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m 53y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Guide Odds: ~4/6
- Overround: 107.7%
Analysis
Sets the standard on form; handles conditions; class edge clear but priced accordingly with Below Fair value.
Details
- J: Brendan Powell
- T: Dan Horsford
- Trip: 2m 53y
- Trainer RTF%: 24%
- Guide Odds: ~10/3
- Overround: 107.7%
Analysis
Unexposed; profile suggests improvement; Fair value as main alternative.
Details
- J: James Bowen
- T: Sheila Lewis
- Trip: 2m 53y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Guide Odds: ~15/2
- Overround: 107.7%
Analysis
Winning form and stamina; should finish off; Fair as a place contender.
Details
- J: James Davies
- T: Tim Vaughan
- Trip: 2m 53y
- Trainer RTF%: 20%
- Guide Odds: ~11/4
- Overround: 107.8%
Analysis
Likeable profile; stays well; solid player though edging toward short on value.
Details
- J: Tom Broughton
- T: Max Comley
- Trip: 2m 53y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Guide Odds: ~15/8
- Overround: 107.8%
Analysis
Form pick on paper but market leans heavy; Below Fair at current guide.
Details
- J: Tom Bellamy
- T: Alan King
- Trip: 2m 53y
- Trainer RTF%: 73%
- Guide Odds: ~9/2
- Overround: 107.8%
Analysis
Profiles well for progress; yard’s juveniles respected; Fair at early tissue.
Details
- J: Jonathan Burke
- T: Emma Lavelle
- Trip: 3m 1f 44y
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Guide Odds: ~11/10
- Overround: 108.1%
Analysis
Stays thoroughly and arrives in form; short enough against a small field.
Details
- J: Isabel Williams
- T: Evan Williams
- Trip: 3m 1f 44y
- Trainer RTF%: 15%
- Guide Odds: ~7/2
- Overround: 108.1%
Analysis
Reliable stayer; conditions suit; holds place claims.
Details
- J: Charlie Hammond
- T: Stuart Edmunds
- Trip: 3m 1f 44y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Guide Odds: ~9/2
- Overround: 108.1%
Analysis
Recent win suggests upswing; another with genuine place prospects.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 2m 4f 194y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Guide Odds: ~3/1
- Overround: 107.5%
Analysis
Well-treated if bouncing back; capable of out-running current mark.
Details
- J: Daire McConville
- T: Charlie Longsdon
- Trip: 2m 4f 194y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Guide Odds: ~9/4
- Overround: 107.5%
Analysis
C&D form and front-running style make him obvious; margins tight on price.
Details
- J: Tom Broughton
- T: Alastair Ralph
- Trip: 2m 4f 194y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Guide Odds: ~6/1
- Overround: 107.5%
Analysis
Good recent sequence; Above Fair proposition if forgiven last run.
Details
- J: Nathan Howie
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 2m 5f 163y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Guide Odds: ~3/1
- Overround: 107.3%
Analysis
Strong recent second marks him down as well-treated; SecEff-J and trip/ground profile scream Above Fair.
Details
- J: Harriet Tucker
- T: Neil Mulholland
- Trip: 2m 5f 163y
- Trainer RTF%: 27%
- Guide Odds: ~2/1
- Overround: 107.3%
Analysis
C&D credentials; competitive; price about right.
Details
- J: Daire McConville
- T: Charlie Longsdon
- Trip: 2m 5f 163y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Guide Odds: ~4/1
- Overround: 107.3%
Analysis
Solid, consistent; Above Fair for place-focused backers.
Details
- J: Tom Bellamy
- T: Alan King
- Trip: 2m 53y
- Trainer RTF%: 73%
- Guide Odds: ~11/2
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Unexposed on handicap debut; strong yard; Above Fair with upside.
Details
- J: Daire McConville
- T: Charlie Longsdon
- Trip: 2m 53y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Guide Odds: ~9/4
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
In good heart; profile and mark make Above Fair appeal in deep field.
Details
- J: Lee Edwards
- T: Belinda Clarke
- Trip: 2m 53y
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Guide Odds: ~9/4
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Solid and often thereabouts; Above Fair if market underestimates consistency.
Analysis
Strong recent evidence over similar trip; SecEff-J and finishing effort mark him as a well-treated, well-positioned runner in a manageable field. With NP > IP and an Overround inside our preferred band, Lunar Power is the model’s standout: this is the “run-that-wins” scenario most aligned to our edge.
Implied Probability represents the chance of winning based solely on bookmaker odds.
Normalized Probability adjusts this figure so all selections in a race total 100%, removing the bookmaker’s margin.
Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be higher than the Implied Probability.