Before You Dive In – Read This First

Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.

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Race Name: Lindsay Jackson 50th Birthday Celebration Selling Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m48y
Racecourse: Hexham
Time of Race: 4:28
First: Baron De Midleton
Age: 12
Weight: 11-6
Form: 62P2P
Going: Good
Jockey: Tom Midgley
Trainer: Brian Ellison
Trainer RTF% Form: 40%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 118
TS: 110
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Jubilee Gold
Age: 9
Weight: 11-1
Form: /UP23
Going: Good
Jockey: Luke Scott
Trainer: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
Trainer RTF% Form: 62%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 97
TS: 103
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Baron De Midleton has shown consistent form in higher-class races and benefits from a strong jockey-trainer combination. Jubilee Gold has potential but needs to prove consistency.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Baron De Midleton’s stamina will be a key advantage.

Race Name: Bobby Roberts Memorial Maiden Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m48y
Racecourse: Hexham
Time of Race: 5:00
First: Destination Dubai
Age: 6
Weight: 11-4
Form: P4112
Going: Good
Jockey: Kielan Woods
Trainer: David Killahena & Graeme McPherson
Trainer RTF% Form: N/A
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: N/A
TS: N/A
Probability: First Horse Very High

Second: My My My Delilah
Age: 5
Weight: 10-11
Form: 422
Going: Good
Jockey: Ross Chapman
Trainer: Stuart Coltherd
Trainer RTF% Form: N/A
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: N/A
TS: N/A
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Destination Dubai is the clear standout with strong recent form. My My My Delilah is unproven but has potential.
Scenario Analysis: Dry conditions favor Destination Dubai’s speed.

Race Name: L&R Pest Control Services Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase
Race Distance: 2m4f15y
Racecourse: Hexham
Time of Race: 5:35
First: First Street
Age: 8
Weight: 11-10
Form: 45442
Going: Good
Jockey: Brian Hughes
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Trainer RTF% Form: 41%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 127
TS: 125
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Shakeyatailfeather
Age: 6
Weight: 11-0
Form: 04211
Going: Good
Jockey: Kielan Woods
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Trainer RTF% Form: 57%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 117
TS: 114
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: First Street’s class and consistency make him the pick. Shakeyatailfeather is improving but needs to step up.
Scenario Analysis: Firmer ground suits First Street’s racing style.

Race Name: Hexham Racecourse Caravan & Camping Park Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m48y
Racecourse: Hexham
Time of Race: 6:10
First: Moon Chime
Age: 7
Weight: 11-11
Form: /431B
Going: Good
Jockey: Kielan Woods
Trainer: David Killahena & Graeme McPherson
Trainer RTF% Form: N/A
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 127
TS: 92
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Smokeringinthedark
Age: 5
Weight: 11-3
Form: 2143
Going: Good
Jockey: Danny McMenamin
Trainer: Nicky Richards
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 119
TS: 116
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Moon Chime’s consistency and jockey-trainer combo give him the edge. Smokeringinthedark is a strong contender but less proven.
Scenario Analysis: Softening ground could favor Smokeringinthedark.

Race Name: Neigh Way Laura Stewart’s 60 Handicap Chase
Race Distance: 2m4f15y
Racecourse: Hexham
Time of Race: 6:40
First: Top Of The Bay
Age: 8
Weight: 12-0
Form: 4P221
Going: Good
Jockey: Tom Midgley
Trainer: Sam England
Trainer RTF% Form: 57%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 97
TS: 80
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Divas Doyen
Age: 8
Weight: 11-4
Form: 24413
Going: Good
Jockey: Bruce Lynn
Trainer: Sandy Forster
Trainer RTF% Form: N/A
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 87
TS: 93
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Top Of The Bay is in excellent form and carries a competitive weight. Divas Doyen is consistent but may struggle against the favorite.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Divas Doyen could close the gap.

Race Name: Harry Douglas Estate Agency Handicap Chase
Race Distance: 3m41y
Racecourse: Hexham
Time of Race: 7:10
First: Kicksaftersix
Age: 9
Weight: 10-13
Form: 22541
Going: Good
Jockey: Sean Quinlan
Trainer: Martin Todhunter
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 85
TS: 94
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Super Citizen
Age: 11
Weight: 12-0
Form: 35312
Going: Good
Jockey: Brian Hughes
Trainer: Lucinda Hughes
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 100
TS: 95
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Kicksaftersix has strong recent form and is well-suited to the distance. Super Citizen is reliable but may find the younger rival too sharp.
Scenario Analysis: A faster pace could benefit Super Citizen’s stamina.

Race Name: Greenhead Hotel Handicap Hurdle (Div I)
Race Distance: 2m7f63y
Racecourse: Hexham
Time of Race: 7:40
First: Killybegs Jet Lady
Age: 8
Weight: 10-13
Form: /3462
Going: Good
Jockey: Alan Doyle
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
Trainer RTF% Form: 53%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 90
TS: 90
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Romeo Brown
Age: 11
Weight: 11-8
Form: 54923
Going: Good
Jockey: Peter Kavanagh
Trainer: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith
Trainer RTF% Form: 67%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 99
TS: 101
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Killybegs Jet Lady is progressive and well-weighted. Romeo Brown is consistent but may lack the turn of foot needed.
Scenario Analysis: Soft ground would enhance Romeo Brown’s chances.

Race Name: Greenhead Hotel Handicap Hurdle (Div II)
Race Distance: 2m7f63y
Racecourse: Hexham
Time of Race: 8:10
First: Tarbat Ness
Age: 6
Weight: 11-12
Form: 65452
Going: Good
Jockey: Jack Quinlan
Trainer: John Berry
Trainer RTF% Form: 67%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 99
TS: 80
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Robert d’Ores
Age: 8
Weight: 11-0
Form: 86215
Going: Good
Jockey: Jonathon Bewley
Trainer: George Bewley
Trainer RTF% Form: N/A
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 87
TS: 74
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Tarbat Ness is the class act here with solid form. Robert d’Ores is improving but needs to find more.
Scenario Analysis: A tactical race could favor Robert d’Ores’ stamina.

Out of my analysis for Hexham on the 03rd of May 2025, this horse shows the best value for money based on Age, Weight, OR, TS, and RTF’s:
Horse: First Street
Age: 8
Weight: 11-10
Form: 45442 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 127
TS: 125
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Form and Improvement: First Street has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making him a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The conditions on the day are expected to suit him, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.
In summary, First Street presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.

Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Hexham – 03rd May 2025

Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)

16:28 – Lindsay Jackson 50th Birthday Celebration Selling Hurdle

• Allbetsoff (Estimated Probability: 65%)
• Baron De Midleton (Estimated Probability: 60%) [Flagged: <80%]

17:00 – Bobby Roberts Memorial Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

• Destination Dubai (Estimated Probability: 85%)
• My My My Delilah (Estimated Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

17:35 – L&R Pest Control Services Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

• Shakeyatailfeather (Estimated Probability: 80%)
• First Street (Estimated Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

18:10 – Hexham Racecourse Caravan & Camping Park Handicap Hurdle

• Moon Chime (Estimated Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
• Well Educated (Estimated Probability: 70%) [Flagged: <80%]

19:40 – Greenhead Hotel Handicap Hurdle (Div I)

• Killybegs Jet Lady (Estimated Probability: 70%) [Flagged: <80%]
• Rumble B (Estimated Probability: 68%) [Flagged: <80%]

Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)

1. Destination Dubai (17:00, Hexham, 85%)
2. Shakeyatailfeather (17:35, Hexham, 80%)
3. Moon Chime (18:10, Hexham, 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
4. Killybegs Jet Lady (19:40, Hexham, 70%) [Flagged: <80%]

Note: Only two horses meet the ≥80% threshold. Remaining selections are included based on highest available probabilities.

Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown

Singles

1. Destination Dubai (17:00, Hexham)
2. Shakeyatailfeather (17:35, Hexham)
3. Moon Chime (18:10, Hexham)
4. Killybegs Jet Lady (19:40, Hexham)

Doubles

1. Destination Dubai + Shakeyatailfeather
2. Destination Dubai + Moon Chime
3. Destination Dubai + Killybegs Jet Lady
4. Shakeyatailfeather + Moon Chime
5. Shakeyatailfeather + Killybegs Jet Lady
6. Moon Chime + Killybegs Jet Lady

Trebles

1. Destination Dubai + Shakeyatailfeather + Moon Chime
2. Destination Dubai + Shakeyatailfeather + Killybegs Jet Lady
3. Destination Dubai + Moon Chime + Killybegs Jet Lady
4. Shakeyatailfeather + Moon Chime + Killybegs Jet Lady

Four-Fold Accumulator

• Destination Dubai + Shakeyatailfeather + Moon Chime + Killybegs Jet Lady

Key Insights

• Best Value Pick: Moon Chime (78%) – Demonstrated strong form with a recent win at Stratford and was unfortunate at Aintree. Faces a less competitive field here, offering solid value.
• Highest Probability: Destination Dubai (85%) – Boasts impressive bumper performances, including a second-place finish in an Aintree Grade 2. Expected to excel on hurdles debut.
• Alternative if Needed: Rumble B (68%) – Consistent performer with recent close finishes. A reliable option if substitutions are necessary.

Final Tip: With only two selections meeting the ≥80% threshold, consider adjusting stake sizes accordingly. Prioritize singles and doubles to manage risk, and monitor market movements for potential value opportunities.