Bet Smart & Win — Huntingdon 02/11/25

Bet Smart & Win — Huntingdon Race Preview

Sunday 02 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race

Methodology & Performance

How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge

The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot structure.

At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%

These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.

How We Pick Winners

Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.


How To Read the Format

We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.

The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.

Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.

When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.

Manor Farm Claiming Hurdle (Class 4) — 12:48
Huntingdon • 6 runners • Good
R1 Cl4 114%
#5 Forget The Way
Form: 1-3626
Jonathan Burke BF
NP
32%
IP
36%
Details

J: Jonathan Burke
T: James Owen
Trip: 1m7f171y
Trainer RTF%: 51%
Odds: 7/4 (2.75)
Overround: 114%

Analysis

Clear form horse with winning CD profile and a workable mark around OR 113. SecEff reads strong — he travels efficiently and sustains it late, which matters in a tactical six-runner claimer. Despite a Below Fair value tag (book tight), he sets the standard for the win.

#1 Mermaids Cave
Form: 10-123
Alex Chadwick BF
NP
29%
IP
33%
Details

J: Alex Chadwick
T: James Owen
Trip: 1m7f171y
Trainer RTF%: 51%
Odds: 2/1 (3.00)
Overround: 114%

Analysis

Strong RPR (123) and a handy weight. Ran like a horse still improving and uses energy efficiently mid-race. Slightly behind Forget The Way on finishing power but still projected 2nd under our SecEff model. Live danger.

#6 As Fast As Wind
Form: 652-31
Robbie David BF
NP
18%
IP
20%
Details

J: Robbie David
T: Daisy Hitchins
Trip: 1m7f171y
Trainer RTF%: 75%
Odds: 4/1 (5.00)
Overround: 114%

Analysis

Arrives off a decisive Kempton win and has a low weight here. SecEff shows she cruises rather than grinds, so a softer early pace would help. Solid 3rd pick if the big two underperform.

Banks Family Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 4) — 13:18
Huntingdon • 13 runners • Good
R2 Cl4 133%
#2 Bongo Man
Form: 6/52-3
Jack Andrews BF
NP
21%
IP
29%
Details

J: Jack Andrews
T: Billy Aprahamian
Trip: 1m7f171y
Trainer RTF%: 38%
Odds: 7/2 (4.50)
Overround: 133%

Analysis

The Uttoxeter maiden he came from has worked out extremely well. On sectionals he travelled like a proper hurdler, not a flat recruit learning on the job. If he tidies the last two flights he sets the standard.

#6 Liam Mera Kai
Form: 1-
James Bowen BF
NP
26%
IP
35%
Details

J: James Bowen
T: Warren Greatrex
Trip: 1m7f171y
Trainer RTF%: 55%
Odds: 15/8 (2.875)
Overround: 133%

Analysis

Point/speed winner with upside. High cruising speed on debut and strong SecEff through the middle of the race. Raw, but talent is obvious. Main danger to Bongo Man.

#8 Not For Passin
Form: 2-1
Charlie Price BF
NP
15%
IP
20%
Details

J: Charlie Price
T: Robbie Llewellyn
Trip: 1m7f171y
Trainer RTF%: 25%
Odds: 4/1 (5.00)
Overround: 133%

Analysis

Won with a bit in hand last time and finds another sharp 2m here. Strong early energy profile but still unproven at this tempo in a deeper field. Serious place player.

DiversityJobsGroup With Bayleaf Care Home “Chasing Excellence” Beginners’ Chase (Class 3) — 13:48
Huntingdon • 5 runners • Good
R3 Cl3 112%
#2 Pic Roc
Form: 20P6-U
Kielan Woods BF
NP
47%
IP
52%
Details

J: Kielan Woods
T: Ben Pauling
Trip: 2m7f129y
Trainer RTF%: 58%
Odds: 10/11 (1.91)
Overround: 112%

Analysis

Brings the deepest chase form and already stays the trip. SecEff suggests he sustains rather than bursts — perfect for 2m7f at Huntingdon. Clear pick to make all or sit handy and control the race.

#5 Musique De Fee
Form: 2-1312
Finn Lambert BF
NP
14%
IP
15%
Details

J: Finn Lambert
T: Georgina Nicholls
Trip: 2m7f129y
Trainer RTF%: 40%
Odds: 11/2 (6.50)
Overround: 112%

Analysis

Reliable mare who keeps finding. Shape of the race should suit her late grind. If Pic Roc underdelivers, she’s the one coming strongly after the last.

#3 Greyval
Form: 2511-5
Jonathan Burke BF
NP
14%
IP
15%
Details

J: Jonathan Burke
T: Fergal O’Brien
Trip: 2m7f129y
Trainer RTF%: 46%
Odds: 11/2 (6.50)
Overround: 112%

Analysis

Likeable attitude and already a winner at this track. Stays. Her SecEff curve is steady rather than explosive which keeps her in the frame for minor money.

PricedUp Daily Sports Boosts Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Class 4) — 14:20
Huntingdon • 6 runners • Good
R4 Cl4 114%
#3 Scavengers Reign
Form: 333-2
Alex Chadwick BF
NP
58%
IP
67%
Details

J: Alex Chadwick
T: James Owen
Trip: 2m3f137y
Trainer RTF%: 51%
Odds: 1/2 (1.50)
Overround: 114%

Analysis

Made a very promising start over this C&D. Projects to control the race from a handy position and finish strongly. SecEff says she maintains pace better than anything else in the last 3f. Clear favourite.

#6 Livingonaprayer
Form: 5-
Joe Anderson BF
NP
13%
IP
15%
Details

J: Joe Anderson
T: Jamie Snowden
Trip: 2m3f137y
Trainer RTF%: 64%
Odds: 11/2 (6.50)
Overround: 114%

Analysis

Trainer in strong form. Showed enough on debut to suggest a step forward. SecEff hints she’ll improve for a more flowing tempo; biggest danger to the fav if she settles early.

#2 La Lolita
Form: 544351
James Bowen BF
NP
13%
IP
14%
Details

J: James Bowen
T: Gary Hanmer
Trip: 2m3f137y
Trainer RTF%: 80%
Odds: 6/1 (7.00)
Overround: 114%

Analysis

Battle-hardened and honest. Not as flashy on raw SecEff, but she keeps finding under pressure. Should be staying on for a place, ideal for Placepot coverage.

PricedUp Macer Gifford Handicap Chase (Class 4, 0-120) — 14:55
Huntingdon • 9 runners • Good
R5 Cl4 120%
#1 No Risk With Lou
Form: -1F036
Kielan Woods BF
NP
17%
IP
20%
Details

J: Kielan Woods
T: Alex Hales
Trip: 2m104y
Trainer RTF%: 63%
Odds: 4/1 (5.00)
Overround: 120%

Analysis

Course specialist, back on a mark he can win from. Handles Huntingdon’s rhythm and fences. SecEff suggests minimal wasted energy over the first circuit — big edge round here. Leading chance.

#8 Pure Carbon
Form: 2654-2
Paul O’Brien BF
NP
24%
IP
29%
Details

J: Paul O’Brien
T: Harry Derham
Trip: 2m104y
Trainer RTF%: 82%
Odds: 5/2 (3.50)
Overround: 120%

Analysis

Very promising chase debut at Chepstow and clearly still improving. Travels strongly on the figures and looks the progressive one. Main threat to No Risk With Lou.

#7 Rumoursareflying
Form: 4F331-
Jack Andrews BF
NP
10%
IP
12%
Details

J: Jack Andrews
T: Pam Sly
Trip: 2m104y
Trainer RTF%: 118%
Odds: 15/2 (8.50)
Overround: 120%

Analysis

Ended last season in form and stays well. SecEff suggests he keeps finding late, so he’s the grinder for the places if the front pair go too hard.

pricedup.bet Handicap Hurdle (Class 5, 0-100) — 15:30
Huntingdon • 12 runners • Good
R6 Cl5 127%
#7 Jack Hoola
Form: 7475-1
Stan Sheppard BF
NP
23%
IP
29%
Details

J: Stan Sheppard
T: Tom Lacey
Trip: 2m3f137y
Trainer RTF%: 83%
Odds: 5/2 (3.50)
Overround: 127%

Analysis

Won well over C&D after a break and still looks ahead of his mark. Strong SecEff late in the straight suggests there’s more to come despite the 5lb rise.

#1 Katira Du Mestivel
Form: F2P7-
Callum Pritchard BF
NP
18%
IP
22%
Details

J: Callum Pritchard
T: Ben Pauling
Trip: 2m3f137y
Trainer RTF%: 58%
Odds: 7/2 (4.50)
Overround: 127%

Analysis

Often finds one too good but is genuinely consistent. Travels well for two-thirds of the race and should get a good position again. Rates the main threat.

#5 Queens Wish
Form: 7-3363
James Bowen BF
NP
12%
IP
15%
Details

J: James Bowen
T: Charles & Adam Pogson
Trip: 2m3f137y
Trainer RTF%: 55%
Odds: 11/2 (6.50)
Overround: 127%

Analysis

Consistent profile and keeps responding under pressure. SecEff says she holds her effort late rather than quickening, which makes her a strong place/each-way style runner in 12-runner handicaps like this.

Book Your Christmas Parties At Huntingdon Handicap Hurdle (Class 5, 0-100) — 16:05
Huntingdon • 17 runners • Good
R7 Cl5 138%
#17 Captain Trigger
Form: 69P-2
Charlie Price BF
NP
10%
IP
13%
Details

J: Charlie Price
T: Robbie Llewellyn
Trip: 3m1f10y
Trainer RTF%: 25%
Odds: 13/2 (7.50)
Overround: 138%

Analysis

Second over this C&D on handicap debut after 200 days off. Stays the trip, finds under pressure, and his SecEff profile over 3m+ is exactly what wins these marathon class 5s. The one they all have to beat.

#11 Jager Time
Form: -44822
Fern O’Brien BF
NP
11%
IP
15%
Details

J: Fern O’Brien
T: Fergal O’Brien
Trip: 3m1f10y
Trainer RTF%: 46%
Odds: 11/2 (6.50)
Overround: 138%

Analysis

String of placed efforts says the engine is there. SecEff suggests he travels smoothly before flattening slightly late, which suits an each-way/place angle in a field of 17 more than an all-in win bet.

#8 Lelantos
Form: /34P32
Nico de Boinville BF
NP
10%
IP
13%
Details

J: Nico de Boinville
T: Nicky Henderson
Trip: 3m1f10y
Trainer RTF%: 42%
Odds: 13/2 (7.50)
Overround: 138%

Analysis

Well-handicapped if repeating his better staying efforts and now gets a big-field gallop which suits. Expected to be ridden for a late run. Serious frame player.

Nap of the Meeting — Huntingdon
2:55 Huntingdon — Class 4 Handicap Chase
NAP Cl4 120%
#1 No Risk With Lou (Form: -1F036)
Kielan Woods NAP BF
Analysis

Four career wins here, including last year’s renewal of this very race. Proven 2m chaser on this track, back on a mark that has previously delivered. His Sectional Effectiveness is ideal for Huntingdon — economical over the first mile, then asks for effort only when others are starting to empty. This is my Nap of the Meeting: track specialist, conditions right, and tactically versatile. Back with confidence.

Value Guide: AF = Above Fair, F = Fair, BF = Below Fair.

Implied Probability represents the chance of winning based solely on bookmaker odds.

Normalized Probability adjusts this figure so all selections in a race total 100%, removing the bookmaker’s margin.

Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability.

Please Login to Comment.